Preelection poll accuracy and bias in the 2016 U.S. general elections

ABSTRACT

This report examines accuracy and bias in national- and state-level preelection polls conducted during the 2016 U.S. general election cycle. Overall, national polls in 2016 were somewhat more accurate than in 2012, but statewide polls were less accurate. Patterns across the board suggest polls underestimated Republican support in the presidential, U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races. Nevertheless, these biases were generally statistically insignificant, suggesting significant bias in preelection polls was scarce in 2016.     

Bridge Over the River Qua: Using Simulations to Span the Divide Between Prelaw and Political Science Students

Undergraduate public law courses often attract students with competing expectations. Some students enroll in these courses to prepare for law school, while others enroll in the courses to gain a broader understanding of courts in the American system of government. These differing student constituencies can create a dilemma for instructors. A course designed to cater to students with a general interest in the judiciary may not afford prelaw students with an appreciation for the demands of the legal profession. Conversely, a course narrowly tailored toward prelaw students risks alienating the majority of students for whom this class may be their only look at the judiciary. As a means to promote pedagogical balance and to appeal to varied student constituencies, we profile five public law simulations in this article that engage students in active learning and promote a greater understanding of law and courts.     

Peer Influence and Context: The Interdependence of Friendship Groups,Schoolmates and Network Density in Predicting Substance Use

This article focuses on the degree to which friends’ influence on substance use is conditioned by the consistency between their behavior and that of schoolmates (individuals enrolled in the same school, but not identified as friends), contributing to the literature on the complexity of interactive social influences during adolescence. Specifically, it hypothesizes that friends’ influence will diminish as their norms become less similar to that of schoolmates. The authors also propose that this conditioning relationship is related to the density of the friendship group. This study uses data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (AddHealth) (n ~ 8,000, 55 % female) to examine the interactive relationship between friend and schoolmate influences on adolescent substance use (smoking and drinking). The sample contains students ranging from age 11 to 22 and is 60 % White. The findings demonstrate that, as the substance use of the friendship group becomes more dissimilar from schoolmates’ substance use, the friendship group’s influence on adolescent substance use diminishes. Further, the results demonstrate that this conditioning relationship does not emerge when the friendship group is highly dense.     

Ideology and personality: Aspects of identity formation in adolescents with strong attitudes toward sex-role equalitarianism

Middle-class adolescent boys and girls with strong attitudes for and against the sex-role ideology of the Women's Movement were administered a Q-sort to study two aspects believed to be related to identity formation: flexibility-rigidity and independence-dependence. A significant positive relationship was found, more strongly for independence than for flexibility and more strongly for girls than for boys. More favorable attitudes toward sex-role equalitarianism were associated with flexibility and independence. The strength of the associations varied with the nature of the Q-sort: ideal self, self as ideal member of opposite sex, and self as ideal to each parent.This article is based on the dissertation by Dr. Kirsch in partial fulfillment of the Doctor of Philosophy Degree at the Graduate School of Education, University of Marylandm, College Park, MarylandPsychotherapist in private practice in Potomac, Maryland, with special interest in psychology of women. Received her Ph.D. in human development from the University of Maryland, Graduate School of Education, in 1974.Received his Ph.D. in clinical psychology from Boston University in 1955. Diplomate in clinical psychology (ABPP). Interest is adolescent development with emphasis on innovative programs for optimal growth as well as treatment services.Received his Ed.D. in human development from the University of Maryland in 1961. Current interest is in developing preservice education programs for Middle School personnel.