Anomalous authoritarianism: what,which, why?

Research on autocracies has gained new momentum in the last decade. One element of this research is the observation that some autocracies are characterised by structural conditions that are normally conducive for democracy. These ‘anomalous autocracies’ have high levels of socioeconomic development and democratic neighbour countries. The study of these cases might expose factors that are decisive for autocratic stability and studying them might give us a better understanding of barriers towards democratisation. This paper contributes to the growing literature on autocracies by mapping anomalous autocracies during the third wave of democratisation, thereby paving the way for systematic case selection in future studies. A large-N analysis of 159 cases (1975–2008) identifies Belarus, Chile, China, Cuba, Morocco, North Korea, Peru, Singapore, Swaziland, Togo and Zimbabwe. In a second step, the paper lays out a theoretical framework that centres on actors and institutions. Rulers must establish elite–elite and elite–mass interaction, and this papers argues that they can do so through quasi-compliance of elites and the masses based on traditional institutions woven into a dominant party. The paper uses the framework to tentatively examine the resilience of authoritarian rule in Swaziland and Morocco, two most-different anomalous cases. In both cases, an elaborate traditional institution has co-opted government, business and rural elites and coordinated interaction within elite circles and with the masses, in turn enabling the remarkable regime resilience.     

Issue ownership attack: how a political party can counteract a rival’s issue ownership

Abstract

A central part of representative democracy is that voters evaluate political parties based on how competently they handle issues, so-called ‘issue ownership’. Since issue ownership is a central ingredient in the vote choice, rival parties often try to influence how voters evaluate a competing party. This is an issue ownership attack. However, despite intense scholarly interest in issue ownership, the understanding of how parties shape issue ownership is very limited. Therefore a new theoretical model is tested here to understand issue ownership attack. Using several survey experiments, the analysis shows that a mainstream party can counteract another mainstream party’s issue ownership by reframing the issue and by blaming the party for its performance, but not by changing its own position on the issue. Hence, the study not only advances the understanding of issue ownership stability and change but also brings important insights on how parties influence voters.     

Bringing People Back in Politics: The Role of Civil Society,Political Parties,and Regional Organizations in a Changing Middle East

The Introduction briefly presents the ideas behind this collection of articles, namely to analyze popular mobilization and the role of civil society, political parties, and regional organizations in relation to the developments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over the last years, and to discuss theoretical approaches and paradigms of relevance for the analysis of these new regional dynamics. The MENA region experienced, in connection with and following the Arab uprisings, a hitherto unseen popular mobilization. Despite the recent highly problematic situation in several Middle Eastern states, the Introduction emphasizes the continued relevance of focusing on a repoliticized MENA reality. The Middle East is still on the move away from the established image of unshakeable authoritarianism attributed to the region, which made the upgrading authoritarianism paradigm seem forever relevant and without any realistic alternative for the decades to come—therefore, the relevance, offered in this collection of articles, of bringing people back in politics.     

The PMMA epidemic in Norway: comparison of fatal and non-fatal intoxications

During a 6 month period (July 2010-January 2011) we observed 12 fatal intoxications and 22 non-fatal cases related to the drug paramethoxymethamphetamine (PMMA) in Norway (4.8 mill inhabitants). This toxic designer drug, also known as "Death", is occasionally found in street drugs offered as "ecstasy" or "amphetamine". The present study aimed to evaluate the cause of death, and to compare the PMMA blood concentrations in fatal and non-fatal cases. Methods for identification and quantification of PMMA are presented. The median age of fatalities was 30 years (range 15-50) with 67% males; in non-fatal cases 27 years (20-47) with 86% males. In the 12 fatalities, the median PMMA blood concentration was 1.92 mg/L (range 0.17-3.30), which is in the reported lethal range of 0.6-3.1 mg/L in peripheral blood and 1.2-15.8 mg/L in heart blood. In the 22 non-fatal cases, the median PMMA concentration was 0.07 mg/L (range 0.01-0.65). Poly-drug use was frequent both in fatal and non-fatal cases. The PMA concentrations ranging from 0.00 to 0.26 mg/L in both groups likely represented a PMMA metabolite. Three fatalities were attributed to PMMA only, six to PMMA and other psychostimulant drugs, and three to PMMA and CNS depressant drugs, with median PMMA concentrations of 3.05 mg/L (range 1.58-3.30), 2.56 (1.52-3.23) and 0.52 mg/L (0.17-1.24), respectively. Eight victims were found dead, while death was witnessed in four cases, with symptoms of acute respiratory distress, hyperthermia, cardiac arrest, convulsions, sudden collapse and/or multiple organ failure. In summary, all fatalities attributed to PMMA had high PMMA blood concentrations compared to non-fatal cases. Our sample size was too small to evaluate a possible impact of poly-drug use. A public warning is warranted against use and overdose with illegal "ecstasy" or "speed" drugs.     

The EU and the Syrian Crisis: The Use of Sanctions and the Regime's Strategy for Survival

The Syrian crisis has from May 2011 and onwards been met by the EU with rounds of tightening sanctions attempting to put pressure on the Syrian regime and the elites surrounding it. Based on a typology for the sanctions and a periodization showing how the measures have proceeded, the article discusses the EU sanctions and to what degree they have influenced the situation in Syria. Furthermore, the article sheds light on regional and international dimensions of EU policies towards Syria and demonstrates how the policies are met with the Syrian regime's ability to adapt to conditions related to changing internal and external challenges. The article concludes that what in the first phases of the EU sanctions against Syria represented a deviation from the traditional pragmatic EU policies vis-à-vis the Middle East, seems during the latest phase to be followed by a more cautious approach, which also takes security concerns into consideration.     

Fighting your friends? A study of intra-party violence in sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT

This article focuses on a less visible and less studied type of political violence, namely violence that occurs within political parties. We use new, district-level data to compare the temporal and spatial dynamics of intra-party violence to those of general election violence across selected sub-Saharan African countries, including both democracies and autocracies, from 1998 to 2016. Relying on cross-national and sub-national analyses, we show that intra-party violence follows a unique pattern. First, unlike general election violence, intra-party violence peaks prior to election day as it is often sparked by individual parties’ candidate nomination processes. Second, low levels of competitiveness – typically theorized to reduce the risk of election violence – increase the risk of intra-party violence on the sub-national level. Thus, dominant party elections do not necessarily see less election-related violence than hotly contested elections. Rather, violence may be pushed from election day to intra-party competitions. If we neglect the study of violence within political parties, we thus risk underestimating the threat of election violence and misdiagnosing its causes.     

The Iranian Revolution, 1977–79: Interaction and Transformation

Within a short time after the Iranian revolution of 1977-79, a number of studies were published concerning the dramatic process. It was presumably the spectacular turn of events, comprehensive media coverage, and relatively long period of time over which the revolution took place that enhanced the attention it received, and still receives from academic research. Taking its point of departure in theories of revolution by Theda Skocpol, this article discusses the character of the revolution. The article problematises Skocpol's theories through a discussion of the special characteristics of the Iranian Revolution, thus adding new dimensions to the comprehensive discussions of the dramatic developments. It is the article's perspective that the revolution must be conceptualised as a complex and dynamic process involving a high degree of internal dynamism and unpredictability, which made possible a radical break from the past, the development of new constructs, and unintended consequences. The execution of a revolution resulting in a clerical dictatorship was made possible by the dialectical and creative interaction between the groups involved, an interaction that took place over the two years during which the revolution occurred.     

Cooperation between counterparts in parliament from an agenda-setting perspective: legislative coalitions as a trade of criticism and policy

Governments may bargain with parties in parliament to silence them. This insight follows from the agenda-setting literature, which emphasises the power of the opposition to criticise the government. The literature on legislatures points to the fear of loss of future voter support as a motivation for majority building. However, it does not name factors that can cause such uncertainty. One such factor is opposition criticism. This article argues that majority building does not only involve an exchange of policy support; governments use legislative coalitions to dampen unwanted opposition blame. By offering the opposition noteworthy policy influence in legislative coalitions, governments avoid opposition criticism in return, in addition to having initiatives passed. In order to test this argument, a large dataset is compiled on opposition criticism in parliament and the media before and after the 325 bargained legislative agreements settled in Denmark from 1973 to 2003. It is found that such agreements are more likely amidst opposition criticism and that they dampen opposition criticism.