Decision theory,reasonable doubt,and the utility of erroneous acquittals

A criminal-trial juror votes to convict or acquit a defendant in the knowledge that the vote may be in error: False convictions and false acquittals are unavoidable in human fact-finding systems. We show here that rigorous consistency relationships exist between the juror's assessments of the relative desirability of the four possible trial outcomes and his or her threshold level of reasonable doubt. However, numerical values for reasonable doubt commonly obtained by direct questioning are significantly at variance with those obtained indirectly by computation from evaluations of the four possible outcomes. The disparity is, we argue, no mere methodological detail, but a potentially fundamental substantive issue which has historically been masked by the vagueness of verbal expressions of probability and utility.Helpful comments on earlier drafts from Gary Wagner, Michael Gottfredson, Brian Thorn, Rick Greenstein, Vernon Greene, John Bartholdi, and two anonymous reviewers are gratefully acknowledged.     

Book reviews

Vernon Hewitt, The New International Politics of South Asia (Manchester University Press, Manchester and New York, 1997), xxxvi +305 pp., ISBN 0–7190–5121–5 (hb), 0–7190–5122–3 (pb)

Ruth Lister, Citizenship: Feminist Perspectives (Macmillan, London, 1997), 284 pp., ISBN 0–333–53488–3

Martin Bull and Martin Rhodes (eds), Crisis and Transition in Italian Politics (Frank Cass, London, 1997), 253 pp., ISBN 0–7146–4816–7 (hb), 0–7146–4366–1 (pb)

Linda McDougall, Westminster Women (Vintage, London, 1998), 215 pp., ISBN 0–09–927405–1     

Le Parlement en temps de crises politiques dans le royaume de Portugal (XIV-XVe siècles)

SUMMARY

This article focuses on the role of the Cortes in the course of two decisive moments of the Portuguese monarchy: the choice of a king on the one hand and the decision to accept a regency on the other. The Cortes of Coimbra (1385) are first analysed in the context of the political events that preceded them, in terms of the novelty of being summoned by the social forces of the kingdom, and in terms of their ideology and innovative measures. As a result, a king was chosen—King John I, the founder of the House of Avis—and reforms of a noticeable ‘constituent’ tendency were proposed. Attention is then focused on the Cortes of Lisbon (1439), which were equally unusual in their summoning and performance. There, it was decided that the infant Don Pedro, brother to the late king Don Duarte, would be in charge of the regency while the heir to the throne, Don Afonso V, was not yet of age. This prevented the queen from occupying the role the monarch had intended for her. In both cases these Cortes are very special given that they legitimated revolutionary acts which had previously taken place. This behaviour reinforces the idea that by comparison with other kingdoms in the Iberian Peninsula, the Portuguese Cortes had a strong leadership role in moments of political crisis and in the assertion of the power and social formation of the monarchy.     

母鼠妊娠期铅镉联合暴露对仔鼠脑组织的氧化损伤及乙酰半胱氨酸的保护效应

45只怀孕SD母鼠被随机分为9组,即A组(对照组,饮用蒸馏水)、B组(铅组,300 mg/L)、C组[铅 N-乙酰半胱氨酸(N-NAC)组,300 mg/L 20 mmol/L]、D组(镉组,10 mg/L)、E组(镉 NAC组,10mg/L 20 mmol/L)、F组(低剂量铅镉联合组,150 mg/L 5 mg/L)、G组(低剂量铅镉联合 NAC组,150mg/L 5 mg/L 20 mmol/L)、H组(高剂量铅镉联合组,300 mg/L 10 mg/L)、Ⅰ组(高剂量铅镉联合 NAC组,300 mg/L 10 mg/L 20 mmol/L).采用饮水染毒,染毒时间为21 d,分娩后每窝随机选取6只乳鼠测定脑匀浆超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)、过氧化氢酶(CAT)、谷胱甘肽过氧化物酶(GSH-Px)、乙酰胆碱酯酶(TChE)活性和丙二醛(MDA)的含量.结果表明,低剂量铅镉联合作用具有中间效应(介于铅、镉单独毒性作用之间),而高剂量铅镉联合作用表现协同或叠加效应.NAC拮抗组与染毒组比较,MDA含量显著降低,SOD、GSH-Px、TChE、CAT活性有升高趋势,说明NAC可以提高大鼠的抗氧化能力,对母鼠铅镉暴露所致新生鼠脑脂质过氧化损伤有一定的保护作用.