FINEX: a Probabilistic Expert System for forensic identification

A series of recent papers have shown how to formulate complex problems of forensic DNA identification inference, such as occur in disputed paternity or criminal identification cases, in terms of Probabilistic Expert Systems (PESs). However, at the present time, general purpose PES software is not particularly well suited to the repetitive tasks of: specifying an appropriate set of marker networks for a specific problem; for editing the many local conditional probability tables; and combining evidence from several genetic markers to evaluate likelihoods. Here, I describe a user-friendly prototype software tool called FINEX developed both to automate such tasks and also to evaluate likelihoods of interest. Ease of use is achieved by a graphical specification language that enables a user to quickly specify a range of forensic DNA problems. I describe the algorithms by which FINEX converts the user input in the graphical specification language and data on observed markers to the Bayesian networks used in PES.     

What Determines Ethical Behavior in Public Organizations: Is It Rules or Leadership?

Leadership is widely seen as having an important role in fostering ethical conduct in organizations, but the ways in which the actions of leaders intersect with formal ethics regulation in shaping conduct have been little researched. This article examines this issue through a qualitative study of the operation of the “ethical framework” for English local government, which entailed all councils adopting a code of conduct to regulate the behavior of local politicians. Studying local government provides an opportunity to examine how personal and managerial factors combine to influence ethical conduct and to analyze the ways in which ethical leadership is exercised through multiple people in leadership roles (politicians and managers). The article finds that organizations that exhibit consistently good conduct have multiple leaders who demonstrate good conduct but also act to preempt the escalation of problems and thereby minimize the explicit use of ethics regulation.     

From Industrial Policy to Regional and Local Locational Policy: Experience from Santa Catarina/Brazil

Abstract — Industrial policy is no longer what it used to be. In the industrialised world and in advanced developing countries alike, the focus has shifted from a top-down, statist approach that sought to create industries to a decentralised, networked approach whose aim is to shape competitive advantages and to create ‘systemic competitiveness.’ This reflects the fact that globalisation and localisation are parallel and mutually reinforcing processes: The firms which do better in a globalised market are rooted in well-developed networks of supporting firms and institutions. The analysis of the case of Santa Catarina, a state which had a strong industrial growth record in the 1970s and 1980s, shows that the relevant actors tend to be slow to move to this kind of pattern. State-level industrial policy mainly consists of participation in a ‘guerra fiscal’ geared to attracting external investment as well as, to a very limited extent, measures aimed at giving financial support to local firms. Yet there is no such thing as an explicit policy at the state level — to say nothing of the local level — designed to support firms by shaping locational advantages. This is due to limitations on the part both of the state and the private sector. As far as the state is concerned, a traditional clientelist and ad hoc style of policy making prevails. In the private sector the business associations (sindicatos and the Federation of Industries, local chambers of industry and commerce and their umbrella federation) are slowly adapting to the new conditions presented by an open economy and far more competitive pressure, though they have thus far lagged in putting more pressure on local and state government to support company-level efforts to increase competitiveness. Within this general picture, however, there are differences between industrial clusters. The most advanced of them, made up of world-class firms manufacturing ceramic tiles, may show the way by strengthening associations, shaping locational advantages, and articulating the demands of companies toward the state.     

Probabilistic expert systems for handling artifacts in complex DNA mixtures

This paper presents a coherent probabilistic framework for taking account of allelic dropout, stutter bands and silent alleles when interpreting STR DNA profiles from a mixture sample using peak size information arising from a PCR analysis. This information can be exploited for evaluating the evidential strength for a hypothesis that DNA from a particular person is present in the mixture. It extends an earlier Bayesian network approach that ignored such artifacts. We illustrate the use of the extended network on a published casework example.     

Identification and separation of DNA mixtures using peak area information

We introduce a new methodology, based upon probabilistic expert systems, for analysing forensic identification problems involving DNA mixture traces using quantitative peak area information. Peak area is modelled with conditional Gaussian distributions. The expert system can be used for ascertaining whether individuals, whose profiles have been measured, have contributed to the mixture. It can also be used to predict DNA profiles of unknown contributors by separating the mixture into its individual components. The potential of our probabilistic methodology is illustrated on case data examples and compared with alternative approaches. The advantages are that identification and separation issues can be handled in a unified way within a single probabilistic model and the uncertainty associated with the analysis is quantified. Further work, required to bring the methodology to a point where it could be applied to the routine analysis of casework, is discussed.     

Managing Politics? Ethics Regulation and Conflicting Conceptions of “Good Conduct”

Concern for fostering trust in public institutions has prompted many governments to invest in systems of ethics regulation, embracing various dimensions of good governance. This article assesses the impact of ethics regulation on the conduct of English local politicians using Foucauldian perspectives on government, power, and resistance. The research finds that ethics regulation encountered problems when politicians resisted the models of political identity and behavior that it was perceived to promote. Particular concentrations of misconduct complaints were identified in which politicians believed that changes to political management structures, designed to make local governance more effective, caused a loss of voice for elected representatives. Ethics regulation itself sometimes served as a device for controlling others and effecting resistance. The article concludes with reflections on how far we should expect political conduct to be managed by such regulatory practices.     

Supporting Effective Citizenship in Local Government: Engaging,Educating and Empowering Local Citizens

Civic-republican theories suggest that an active citizenry is associated with community cohesion, better political institutions and inclusive democratic decision making. The influence of these arguments on the UK Labour government has led policy makers to focus attention on strategies to promote citizenship at a local level. In particular, English local authorities are expected to provide ‘support for citizenship’ as part of their wider duty to promote ‘effective community engagement’. The ways in which they can do this are various, ranging from the simple provision of information to direct support for community networks and groups. This article reports the findings of an extensive study of English councils' efforts to engage, educate and empower local citizens. The paper concludes that although local authorities have made significant progress in recent years in widening the structures for communicating with, and engaging citizens, there remains considerable scope for improving activities that address the learning implications of effective citizenship.     

Community Planning: Fostering Participation in the Congested State?

The proliferation of partnership working across the British state raises difficult questions for democratic control and public participation. It is widely anticipated that 'community plans' - comprehensive strategies to promote social well-being - will address these issues, by facilitating public involvement in the governance of local areas. This paper examines community planning in Scotland to assess how far this hope is justified, drawing on government-sponsored research and a case study of community planning conferences. While community planning is extending opportunities for involvement, democratising local governance is subservient to dominant concerns with promoting joint working and demonstrating added value. Participatory events are structured to sustain belief in these activities.