Party convergence and vote switching: Explaining mainstream party decline across Europe

How can one explain the significant vote losses of mainstream parties across Europe in recent years? In this article, it is argued that mainstream party convergence is an important determinant of the recent political and electoral volatility in European party systems. More specifically, it is hypothesised that as mainstream parties converge on the left-right scale, voters will switch from supporting a mainstream party to a non-mainstream party in the next election as they look for an alternative that better represents their ideological views. To test these theoretical expectations, data is combined from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and the Manifestos Project for nearly 15,000 vote choices of individual voters in 30 elections in 16 West and East European countries from 2001 until 2013. The findings have important implications for understanding the recent rise of non-mainstream parties, the changing nature of party systems and the increasing complexity of cabinet formation across Europe.     

Matching Judicial Supervision to Clients' Risk Status in Drug Court

This article reports outcomes from a program of experimental research evaluating the risk principle in drug courts. Prior studies revealed that participants who were high risk and had (a) antisocial personality disorder or (b) a prior history of drug abuse treatment performed better in drug court when scheduled to attend biweekly judicial status hearings in court. In contrast, participants who were low risk performed equivalently regardless of the court hearings schedule. This study prospectively matches drug court clients to the optimal schedule of court hearings based on an assessment of their risk status and compares outcomes to clients randomly assigned to the standard hearings schedule. Results confirmed that participants who were high risk and matched to biweekly hearings had better during-treatment outcomes than participants assigned to status hearings as usual. These findings provide confirmation of the risk principle in drug courts and yield practical information for enhancing the efficacy and cost-efficiency of drug courts.     

Matching consequences to behavior: implications of failing to distinguish between noncompliance and nonresponsivity

Neither punitive nor therapeutic approaches alone are effective at addressing the dual public health and public safety concerns associated with managing criminal behavior perpetrated by people who have psychiatric and substance use disorders. The optimal solution may instead require the integration of both criminal justice supervision and treatment. Using problem-solving courts (PSCs) as a model, we focus on one dimension of this integrated approach, distinguishing between behavior that stems from willful noncompliance with supervision and behavior that results from nonresponsivity to treatment. First, we discuss the public health and public safety consequences of using singular approaches to address the criminal behavior of this population. We then present lessons learned from PSCs that distinguish between noncompliant and nonresponsive behaviors in making treatment and supervision decisions. Finally, we consider how the concepts of nonresponsivity and noncompliance may be extended, via policy, to probation and parole settings as well as mental health and substance abuse treatment services outside the criminal justice setting in order to enhance public health and safety.     

Organised interests in the media and policy congruence: The contingent impact of the status quo

While a multitude of studies have investigated the link between opinion and policy, we have little knowledge of how and when organised interests affect this linkage. We argue that the alignment of organised interests affects opinion–policy congruence by influencing the weight decision-makers attach to citizen preferences. Moreover, we propose that alignment between majorities of groups and the public matters the most when status quo bias must be overcome for the public to obtain its preferred policy. We test our theoretical claims drawing on a comprehensive media content analysis of 160 policy issues in Germany and Denmark. Our results present a more sceptical picture of the ability of groups to suppress the opinion–policy linkage than the one frequently presented in the academic literature and public debate. We find that the capacity of groups to affect whether policy is congruent with the majority of the public is restricted to situations where the public supports a change in the status quo. In these cases, policy is less likely to end up reflecting public opinion if the majority of interest groups do not support the public position. In cases where the public is supportive of the policy status quo, the position of interest groups does not affect the likelihood that policy will eventually reflect the preferred position of the public. Our findings expand existing knowledge of organised interests in the study of policy representation and have important implications for understanding democratic governance.     

An experimental trial of adaptive programming in drug court: outcomes at 6, 12 and 18 months

Objectives

To test whether an adaptive program improves outcomes in drug court by adjusting the schedule of court hearings and clinical case-management sessions pursuant to a priori performance criteria.

Methods

Consenting participants in a misdemeanor drug court were randomly assigned to the adaptive program (n?=?62) or to a baseline-matching condition (n?=?63) in which they attended court hearings based on the results of a criminal risk assessment. Outcome measures were re-arrest rates at 18 months post-entry to the drug court, and urine drug test results and structured interview results at 6 and 12 months post-entry.

Results

Although previously published analyses revealed significantly fewer positive drug tests for participants in the adaptive condition during the first 18 weeks of drug court, current analyses indicate the effects converged during the ensuing year. Between-group differences in new arrest rates, urine drug test results and self-reported psychosocial problems were small and non-statistically significant at 6, 12, and 18 months post-entry. A non-significant trend (p?=?.10) suggests there may have been a small residual impact (Cramer’s v?=?.15) on new misdemeanor arrests after 18 months.

Conclusions

Adaptive programming shows promise for enhancing short-term outcomes in drug courts; however, additional efforts are needed to extend the effects beyond the first 4 to 6 months of enrollment.     

Adaptive Programming Improves Outcomes in Drug Court: An Experimental Trial

Prior studies in Drug Courts reported improved outcomes when participants were matched to schedules of judicial status hearings based on their criminological risk level. The current experiment determined whether incremental efficacy could be gained by periodically adjusting the schedule of status hearings and clinical case-management sessions in response to participants' ensuing performance in the program. The adjustments were made pursuant to a priori criteria specified in an adaptive algorithm. Results confirmed that participants in the full adaptive condition (n = 62) were more than twice as likely as those assigned to baseline-matching only (n = 63) to be drug-abstinent during the first 18 weeks of the program; however, graduation rates and the average time to case resolution were not significantly different. The positive effects of the adaptive program appear to have stemmed from holding noncompliant participants more accountable for meeting their attendance obligations in the program. Directions for future research and practice implications are discussed.     

Targeting dispositions for drug-involved offenders: A field trial of the Risk and Needs Triage (RANT)™

Purpose

This field trial examined the process of assigning drug-involved offenders to dispositions based on their criminogenic risks and needs.

Methods

Probation officers administered the Risk and Needs Triage (RANT)™ to 627 felony drug and property offenders at the pre-trial stage or shortly after sentencing to probation. The RANT™ was evaluated for internal scale consistency, factor structure, and predictive validity for re-arrest and re-conviction rates within 12 months of case disposition. Exploratory analyses examined whether recidivism was lower for participants who were assigned to an appropriate disposition given their assessment results.

Results

The RANT™ demonstrated acceptable internal consistency and factorial validity, and significantly predicted re-arrest and re-conviction rates within 12 months of case disposition. There was no racial or gender bias in the prediction of recidivism. Non-significant trends favored better outcomes for participants who were assigned to the indicated dispositions.

Conclusions

The results lend support for the RANT™ as a dispositional triage tool for drug-involved defendants and probationers at or near the point of arrest. The results also lend tentative support to the hypothesis that outcomes might be better if drug-involved offenders were matched to appropriate dispositions based on their risk-and-need profiles. Directions for future research are discussed.