The differential predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory: the role of gender

Most criminogenic risk assessments are developed and empirically validated on samples of boys or samples comprised of mostly boys, and subsequently applied to girls. Using a sample of male (n = 1,267) and female (n = 453) probationers, the purpose of the current study was to examine the potentially differential performance of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) and the instrument’s eight domains for female juvenile offenders. Findings revealed gender differences in the predictive validity of the YLS/CMI in which girls scored significantly higher on the risk assessment, but recidivated at significantly lower rates than boys two years following the administration of the assessment. The predictive validity of the instrument was impacted by these gender differences in which the YLS/CMI total score was a better predictor of recidivism for boys (area under the curve (AUC) = .623) than girls (AUC = .565). The only subscales that significantly predicted recidivism for girls were the family (AUC = .607) and personality (AUC = .572) domains, whereas all of the subscales significantly predicted recidivism for boys. Directions for future research as well as gender-responsive assessment, programming, and policy implications are discussed.     

Revisiting the trade and unemployment nexus: Empirical evidence from the Nigerian economy

The recent exacerbation of unemployment crisis in Nigeria stands to be a serious threat to both socio‐economic stability and progress of the country just as the report from the Bureau of Statistics shows that at least over 8.5 million people had no gainful employment at all as at the last quarter of the year 2017. It is on the above premise, that the present study explores the link between trade and unemployment for the case of Nigeria with the intention of exploring how the unemployment crisis has been impacted within the dynamics of the country's trade performance. The empirical evidence shows that the nation's terms of trade were insignificant to unemployment rate, while trade openness and domestic investment, on the other hand, have significant opposing impacts on unemployment in Nigeria over the period of the study. Further breakdowns from the empirical analysis also revealed that the Philips curves proposition is valid within the Nigerian economic context, while the evidences for the validity of Okun's law only exist in the short‐run scenario. Based on the empirical results, we recommend that concerted effort should be geared toward stimulating domestic investment by providing adequate financial and infrastructural facilities that will promote ease of doing business while utmost precautions are taken to ensure that unemployment crisis is not exacerbated when combating inflation in the economy in the wake of dynamic trade relations.     

Risk assessment: Identifying patterns of risk in young offenders with the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory

Effective case management of juvenile offenders requires differential treatment of juveniles that is based on clearly established patterns of need and risk ascertained by valid risk prediction tools. This study was the first attempt to determine whether profiles of offenders would provide valid and useful information beyond simple risk level (high, medium, and low). Using cluster analytic techniques, this study identified five risk profiles using juvenile court intake and probation samples (n = 301 and n = 372, respectively). The two samples were selected to represent youth entering the juvenile justice system and those already under the jurisdiction of the court. The results indicated that statistically dependable profiles could be identified which may provide more detailed information than risk level alone. Further, it appears that risk profile may provide a more useful method of categorizing offenders and their needs.     

Disproportionate minority contact in the juvenile justice system: An investigation of ethnic disparity in program referral at disposition

Historically, minority youth have experienced harsher punishments and more negative outcomes than White youth even when risk assessment is used. The current study investigated the role of ethnicity in an understudied dispositional decision–program referral–and the outcomes associated with said referral using a sample of juvenile offenders (N = 2,678). The study used the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) to determine (1) if ethnicity predicted program referral when accounting for risk assessment and (2) if program referral predicted recidivism. Results indicated that ethnicity predicted program referral, and program referral predicted recidivism. Future directions for Disproportionate Minority Contact (DMC) research and implications for court officials are discussed.