Some reflections on the next twenty-five years of public choice

I gratefully acknowledge the comments of Jan Potters and Joep Sonnemans on an earlier version of this paper.     

Nomenklatura,state monopoly,and private enterprise

Using a behavioral model of political decisionmaking, it is argued that an increasing population size and/or an increasing efficiency of production in a private enterprise economy relative to a centrally planned economy may create the conditions for a self-interested nomenklatura in a Soviet-type economy to consider a transition to a market economy. This transition may be thwarted, however, by the threat for prospective private enterpreneurs of exploitation after the change of regime. Some form of political pluralism guaranteeing sufficient political influence to private entrepreneurs appears to be required for a successful transition. The analysis shows that such a combined political and economic reform can be in the interest of the nomenklatura, thereby providing an endogenous behavioral explanation for a change of regime.     

Police referral to victim support: the predictive and diagnostic value of the RISK (10) screening instrument

One of the basic rights of crime victims granted under victim-orientated legislation introduced during the last 20 years in more than 100 countries worldwide is the right to be referred to victim support by the police. The under-utilization of psychological services by crime victims who are objectively in need of external support is substantial. Current legal procedures tend to perpetuate this unwanted condition. Programs aimed at the early detection and prevention of persistent postvictimization distress are more in line with the ideals of therapeutic jurisprudence. The RISK (10) screening instrument, which was specifically developed to be administered by police officers, may provide a basis for early detection. RISK (10) consists of a selection of 10 Risk factors with prior empirical evidence and theoretical significance. The focus of the present study was to examine the predictive and diagnostic power of RISK (10) components to detect persistent future psychological distress, among other things, in terms of Adjustment Disorder. Analyses were based on a sample of 93 crime victims who participated in the police and (3 months) follow-up parts of the study. Findings provided initial validation for the predictive accuracy of most RISK (10) components, and confirm the diagnostic value (in terms of specificity, sensitivity, positive and negative predictive power) of risk factors, such as engaging in character attributions, upward comparison processes, fatalistic appraisals of the episode, and the initial reporting of expected deficiencies in social support. The clinical utility of RISK (10) for early detection in police stations is confirmed.     

Victims' influence on intimate partner violence revictimization: an empirical test of dynamic victim-related risk factors

Research has reported that not only characteristics of the perpetrator but also characteristics of the victim influence risk for intimate partner violence (IPV). This would suggest that prevention of repeat abuse could benefit from a focus on both perpetrator and victim characteristics. Knowledge on factors that are within victims' sphere of influence is important because a focus on victim characteristics can help victims to take control of their situations and can thereby empower them. Dynamic victim-related factors are most relevant here as these are factors that can be changed or improved, in contrast to unchangeable static factors. Surprisingly, however, little is known about how victim-related factors affect risk for revictimization of IPV. The current study was conducted among a Dutch sample of 156 female, help-seeking IPV victims. The aim was to examine to what extent prior IPV and, in particular, dynamic victim-related factors influence risk for future IPV. In accordance with the models articulated by Foa, Cascardi, Zoellner and Feeny, we studied how the three key factors from their models-partner violence, victims' psychological difficulties, and victims' resilience-related to risk for IPV revictimization. Results provide support for several key factors (partner violence and victims' psychological difficulties) and, moreover, show which victim-related factors contribute to revictimization risk above and beyond the influence of prior violence committed by a partner against the victim (i.e., victims' prior IPV victimizations). Findings are discussed in terms of recommendations for practice and future research.     

The Influence of Prison Staff on Inmate Conditions: A Multilevel Approach to Staff and Inmate Surveys

The current study connects survey data of inmates and correctional staff in the Dutch prison system in order to describe and explain the impact of staff orientation and staff working conditions on perceived prison circumstances of inmates. Importation and deprivation theory are combined to test an integrated model to explain perceived prison conditions. By surveying staff (N = 1750) and inmates (N = 4673) independently within the same period of time and by afterwards pairing the results on the level of the housing unit (N = 173) using multilevel techniques, it is found that inmates′ perceptions of the prison conditions vary considerably between housing units. It is also found that staff’s perceptions of prison conditions show congruency with those of inmates. Another important finding is that in housing units where the orientation of staff towards inmates is relatively supportive, inmates perceive their circumstances as more positive. Conclusions and directions for further research are provided.     

Show Them Your Teeth First!

This paper investigates the choice of an interestgroup between lobbying (``words'') and pressure(``actions'') in order to influence a policymaker. Both lobbying and pressure are modeled asstrategic means of transmitting information that isrelevant to the policymaker. However, only pressure isdirectly costly to the policymaker. The interactionbetween the interest group and the policymaker isframed as a repeated signaling game. In equilibriumpressure – in contrast to lobbying – only occurswhen the interest group's reputation is sufficientlylow, and always improves its reputation. It is shownthat (repeated) lobbying cannot completely substitutefor pressure, and that the interest group may beforced to sustain its reputation through lobbying. Weconclude that pressure is typically used to build upa reputation, lobbying to maintain a reputation.     

Does the Wage Tax System Cause Budget Deficits A Macro-Economic Experiment

In this paper we investigate experimentallythe economic functioning of a wage taxsystem for financing unemployment benefits in aninternational economy, in particular inreaction to budget deficits and taxadjustment. Our results support the hypothesisthat due to out-of-equilibrium priceuncertainty producers are reluctant toemploy inputs. We also observe a downward pressureon wages exacerbated by an over-supply of labor by consumers. Theseobservations can explain the budgetdeficits found. Furthermore, we find that taxadjustments in order to facilitate abalancing of the budget has strong adverse effects onunemployment and real GDP.     

The observation of mental disorder and dangerousness in arsonists: a contemporary appraisal of changes in Dutch forensic mental health cases

In the Netherlands pre-trial forensic mental health assessments are conducted to examine whether a mental disorder was present at the time of the offence that affected the free will of a person, in which case criminal accountability is considered diminished or absent. This study aims to investigate societal changes over time in forensic mental health recommendations in arson cases. Seventy-two reports of male arsonists assessed in 1950–2010 were included in this study, 36 arsonists were assessed in the first time period (1950–1979) and 36 in the second period (1980–2010). Results show an association between DSM classification and the conclusion on criminal accountability only in the first period and an association between recidivism risk and the forensic mental health recommendation only in the later period. It is concluded that mental disorder was of greater influence on the conclusion on accountability in the first time period, whilst dangerousness played a more important role on the forensic mental health recommendation in the later time period. Our findings reflect a shift from paternalistic principles to principles of risk control and show that societal changes influence the field of forensic mental health.