THE DELINQUENCY OF CHILDREN BORN TO YOUNG MOTHERS: RESULTS FROM THE ROCHESTER YOUTH DEVELOPMENT STUDY*

This paper examines the relationship between a mother's age at first childbirth and the delinquent behavior of her children. Using data from the Rochester Youth Development Study (RYDS), an ongoing longitudinal study of adolescent development, we found that children born to mothers who began childbearing at a young age were more prone to general delinquency, violence, and arrest than were children born to mothers who began childbearing when they were older. This “early first‐birth effect” was far larger in white and Hispanic families than in African‐American families. Mediating analyses found that the early first‐birth effect was most attributable to the unstable composition of families in which early childbearing occurs. That said, a substantial portion of the effect remains unmediated.     

ON AMBIGUITY IN PERCEPTIONS OF RISK:IMPLICATIONS FOR CRIMINAL DECISION MAKING AND DETERRENCE*

Deterrence theorists and researchers have argued that the critical dimension of sanction certainty is its level—increasing the certainty of punishment from a lower to a higher level will inhibit criminal conduct. However, the true certainty of punishment is rarely known with much precision. Both Sherman (1990) and Nagin (1998) have suggested that ambiguity about the level of punishment certainty is itself consequential in the decision to commit or refrain from crime. Here, we investigate this proposition. We find some evidence that individuals are “ambiguity averse” for decisions involving losses such as criminal punishments. This finding means that a more ambiguous perceived certainty of punishment is a greater deterrent of some crimes than a nominally equivalent but less ambiguous one. However, this effect depends on how large an individual's risk certainty perception is initially. That is, we find evidence for “boundary effects” (Casey and Scholz, 1991a, 1991b) in which this effect holds for lower probabilities but reverses for higher ones. For higher detection probabilities, individuals become “ambiguity seeking” such that a less ambiguous detection probability has more deterrent value than a nominally equivalent but more ambiguous detection probability. Results are presented from two distinct, but complementary, analysis samples and empirical approaches. These samples include a survey to college students with several hypothetical choice problems and data from the Pathways to Desistance study, a longitudinal investigation of serious adolescent offenders transitioning from adolescence to young adulthood.     

PROJECTED OFFENDING AND CONTEMPORANEOUS RULE‐VIOLATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR HETEROTYPIC CONTINUITY*

This study integrated two methodologies, the vignette‐based survey and the randomized laboratory experiment, to investigate the relationship between projected and actual offending behavior. Findings indicate that respondents' estimates of the likelihood they would drive drunk in a hypothetical vignette were positively correlated with whether they simultaneously cheated on a laboratory task to earn a cash bonus. Implications are discussed for both the prospective measurement and heterotypic continuity of criminal and antisocial behavior.     

Echoes of Butler? The Conservative Research Department and the Making of Conservative Policy

Although it remains a comparatively little known institution, the Conservative Research Department (CRD) has played an important role in modern British political history. The last few years have seen a remarkable revival in its fortunes. In several important respects, this revival echoes that of the Department under the chairmanship of Rab Butler following the election defeat of 1945. This article examines some of the parallels to be drawn between the experience of the CRD between 1945 and 1951 and between 2001 and the present. It concludes by drawing some general conclusions about how the Conservative party should develop policy when in opposition.     

ADOLESCENT RISK. The psychological assessment and management of problem areas contributing to adolescent criminal behavior

Psychological assessments were completed on fifty adolescent offenders (ages 13 through 18). All evaluations were court ordered to assist with legal disposition and focused on assessment and management of problem areas that were believed to contribute to repeated criminal behavior. A process for the psychological evaluation of problem areas and the development of management strategies to address these areas is described. Frequencies of problem areas are presented with discussion of the most frequent. School problems, past aggressive acts, negative peer influences, and a guarded/ avoiding personality style were the most frequently cited. Management strategies for high frequency problem areas are also discussed.