Panel on the Economic and Political Consequences of Chernobyl'

This article summarizes a discussion by a panel of leading experts on Soviet energy analyzing the consequences of the accident at the Chernobyl' nuclear plant in the Ukraine on April 26, 1986.

The near-term economic costs associated with clean-up, relocation, and compensating for losses to electricity supplies are significant but manageable. The longer-term effects will focus on likely modifications in Soviet strategies for the nuclear industry, which may shift emphasis back towards conventional fuels and conservation.

The political consequences were managed fairly well by the leadership. Consistent with Secretary Gorbachev's policy of glasnost' (openness) more information has been available on this event than was the case in previous analogous situations. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 027, 124, 723.     

The Aftermath of the 19th Conference of the CPSU: A Soviet Economy Roundtable

The aftermath of the 19th Conference of the Communist Party, held in Moscow from June 28 to July 1, 1988, is analyzed by eight Western observers. The discussion covers impacts of the Conference on Soviet society and abroad, General Secretary Gorbachev's speech at the Central Committee Plenum on July 29, 1988, and reviews results of his policies since 1985. It proceeds to look at the current transitional period of Soviet reforms, including the formation of new enterprise forms and horizontal links in the economy. Finally, the discussants view prospects for political and economic development in the future. journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 113.     

Strategic Horizons: Futures Forecasting and the British Intelligence Community

The article deals with the role and benefit added by the use of horizon scanning in intelligence analysis in the UK. It asserts that horizon scanning as a technique, while not entirely akin to the tradecraft of intelligence analysis, has much to contribute to its success. Specifically, is asserts that a horizon scanning function in the JIO and the Cabinet Office should be made permanent, as bureaucratic tumult in the wake of the 2010 SDSR have left the capability un-staffed, though still established. Within the UK intelligence community, such an organization may have positive roles to play in the processes of challenge, the setting of collection priorities, and overall long-term UK intelligence assessment at the national level.