Quantitative assessment of evidential weight for a fingerprint comparison I. Generalisation to the comparison of a mark with set of ten prints from a suspect

The authors have published elsewhere a quantitative method for assessing weight of evidence in the case where a finger mark from a crime scene is compared with a control print taken from a single finger of a suspect. The approach is based on the notion of calculating a likelihood ratio (LR) that addresses a pair of propositions relating to the single finger that was the origin of the crime mark. In practice, things are rather different because the crime mark will not just be compared with a single finger from a suspect but with a set of prints from all of his/her fingers; likewise, when the mark is compared with a database, this will consist of ten print records from random individuals. It is clear that "finger propositions" are not realistic in this situation and we show how our approach may be generalised to address a pair of propositions that relate to the person that made the crime mark. It often is the case that information is present at the crime scene that enables some inference to be drawn relating to which of the offender's ten fingers left a particular mark of interest. This kind of inference may profitably be drawn into the formal analysis. We illustrate our approach with an example.     

Operational benefits and challenges of the use of fingerprint statistical models: a field study

Research projects aimed at proposing fingerprint statistical models based on the likelihood ratio framework have shown that low quality finger impressions left on crime scenes may have significant evidential value. These impressions are currently either not recovered, considered to be of no value when first analyzed by fingerprint examiners, or lead to inconclusive results when compared to control prints. There are growing concerns within the fingerprint community that recovering and examining these low quality impressions will result in a significant increase of the workload of fingerprint units and ultimately of the number of backlogged cases. This study was designed to measure the number of impressions currently not recovered or not considered for examination, and to assess the usefulness of these impressions in terms of the number of additional detections that would result from their examination.     

The economic impact of genetically modified cotton on South African smallholders: Yield,profit and health effects

Results of a large-scale survey of resource-poor smallholder cotton farmers in South Africa over three years conclusively show that adopters of Bt cotton have benefited in terms of higher yields, lower pesticide use, less labour for pesticide application and substantially higher gross margins per hectare. These benefits were clearly related to the technology, and not to preferential adoption by farmers who were already highly efficient. The smallest producers are shown to have benefited from adoption of the Bt variety as much as, if not more than, larger producers. Moreover, evidence from hospital records suggests a link between declining pesticide poisonings and adoption of the Bt variety.     

The Importance of Establishing Reliability and Validity of Assessment Instruments for Mental Health Problems: an Example from Somali Children and Adolescents Living in Three Refugee Camps in Ethiopia

Assessing mental health problems cross-culturally for children exposed to war and violence presents a number of unique challenges. One of the most important issues is the lack of validated symptom measures to assess these problems. The present study sought to evaluate the psychometric properties of two measures to assess mental health problems: the Achenbach Youth Self-Report and the Child Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Symptom Scale. We conducted a validity study in three refugee camps in Eastern Ethiopia in the outskirts of Jijiga, the capital of the Somali region. A total of 147 child and caregiver pairs were assessed, and scores obtained were submitted to rigorous psychometric evaluation. Excellent internal consistency reliability was obtained for symptom measures for children and their caregivers. Validation of study instruments based on local case definitions was obtained for the caregivers but not consistently for the children. Sensitivity and specificity of study measures were generally low, indicating that these scales would not perform adequately as screening instruments. Combined test–retest and inter-rater reliability was low for all scales. This study illustrates the need for validation and testing of existing measures cross-culturally. Methodological implications for future cross-cultural research studies in low- and middle-income countries are discussed.     

Missing links in nanomaterials governance: bringing industrial dynamics and downstream policies into view

In this article we explore some of the analytical and policy implications of widening the focus of nanomaterials governance from risk regulation to the broader issue of the purposeful direction of the innovation process. We focus on the impact of industrial activities on nanotechnology governance, arguing that the specific characteristics of the industrial dynamics of nanomaterials—flexibility in applications and distributed innovation—limit and enable different potential interventions to shape technology. In particular, these characteristics exacerbate the difficulties of attempting to directly influence innovation trajectories. Under these conditions, we argue that policies for nanomaterials governance need to be broadened. The prevailing emphasis in the UK on policy initiatives ‘upstream’ in the R&D process, while commendable, should be complemented with policies aimed further ‘downstream’ at potential users of nanomaterials, such as renewable energy procurement or housing regulations in order to modulate technological development towards socially desirable goals.     

Quantitative assessment of evidential weight for a fingerprint comparison. Part II: a generalisation to take account of the general pattern

The authors have proposed a quantitative method for assessing weight of evidence in the case where a fingermark from a crime scene is compared with a set of control prints from the ten fingers of a suspect. The approach is based on the notion of calculating a Likelihood Ratio (LR) that addresses a pair of propositions relating to the individual who left the crime mark. The current method considers only information extracted from minutiae, such as location, direction and type. It does not consider other information usually taken into account by fingerprint examiners, such as the general pattern of the ridge flow on the mark and the control prints. In this paper, we propose an improvement to our model that allows a fingerprint examiner to take advantage of pattern information when assessing the evidential weight to be assigned to a fingerprint comparison. We present an extension of the formal analysis proposed earlier and we illustrate our approach with an example.     

Typologies,risk and recidivism in partner-violent men with the B-SAFER: a pilot study

The research describes the criminal profile of 100 imprisoned partner-violent men (PVM) in Spain, and the follow-up for an average of 15 months of 40 released cases. The ability of the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER) to classify offenders according to typologies and to predict recidivism is analyzed. The results show that PVM have low level of specialization (only 45% limit their criminal activity to intimate partner violence (IPV)) and high level of recidivism (47% previously have been in prison, and 41% have prior arrest for IPV). The B-SAFER shows a high capacity to classify according to batterers typologies (accuracy of 79% with a score ≥13) in two groups: non-pathological and antisocial/pathological offenders. After prison release, 17.5% relapsed (15% in IPV), and 66% have done so within the first year. The B-SAFER had a predictive accuracy of 70% (sensitivity 100%). From antisocial/pathological group, 21% have recidivate compared to 12.5% in non-pathological aggressors, with an over-representation of antisocial/pathological subtype among recidivists (71%). The best predictive variables are the justification of violence, age at first imprisonment, and treatment. There is a 9% of recidivism among treated offenders compared to 50% in the untreated group.     

European capitalism and the effects of agricultural commercialization on slave labor in Tunisia, 1780s–1880s

Abstract

The paper argues that while the significance of Tunisian state economic and political reforms during the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries has reflected the changing patterns of the caravan slave trade in previous research, much of this research has not considered the role of slaves in the emergent Tunisian economy. Nowhere is this negligence more apparent than in the agricultural sector, which was predominantly responsible for strengthening economic growth from the late eighteenth century until its weakening as a result of encroaching European capitalism by the mid-nineteenth century. Drawing on Tunisian state population data known as the Majba Census and the extant economic literature, the paper addresses this gap by exploring the implications of the Tunisian state economic reforms on enslaved labor in the agricultural sector. Exploring this research gap will enable us to ascertain the extent to which enslaved labor contributed to Tunisia’s burgeoning agricultural sector in a manner that has dodged academics’ attention. After providing a historical context of European capital penetration and its implications on political and economic reforms from the Ottoman conquest through the Husaynid periods, the paper looks at how European capital infusion after the first quarter of the nineteenth century transformed the agricultural sector and examines the role of slave labor prior to the European capital infusion and commercialization of the agricultural sector. Using the Majba Census records’ regional distribution of blacks in the Regency the paper sheds light on the implications of the precarious economy engendered by agricultural commercialization under the aegis of European capitalism on the structure of enslaved labor.     

Turkish foreign policies determinants toward Palestinian issue under the rule of Justice and Development Party (2002–2015)

The study aimed at identifying the determinants, premises and the milestones of the Turkish Foreign Policy under the rule of the Adalet ve Kalk?nma Partisi (AKP) toward the Palestinian issue. The study sought to unveil the basics and foundations of this new Turkish foreign policy, which the AKP depends on. The researcher investigated historically the Turkish foreign policy toward the Palestinian issue in the last era. It has established a kind of relative compatibility with the neighborhood and the world on many foreign policy issues, which all are characteristics that granted Turkey the possibility of establishing and implementing active and influential policies. The Palestinian issue with all its intricate and barbed nature is the best entrance of AKP Turkey to take a regional and international place. The Palestinian issue is considered the entrance of AKP Turkey to the “Islamic World.” At the end of the study, the researcher recommended that the Palestinian politicians benefit from the Turkish foreign policy under the rule of the AKP. It is through this policy that Turkey occupies a distinctive regional role through mediating between the disputing parties and exploits this role and its acceptance by the international community in supporting the Palestinian issue.     

A Bayesian approach for interpreting shoemark evidence in forensic casework: accounting for wear features

Shoemark evidence remains a cornerstone of forensic crime investigation. Shoemarks can be used at a crime scene to reconstruct the course of events; they can be used as forensic intelligence tool to establish links between crime scenes; and when control material is available, used to help infer the participation of given individuals to the commission of a crime. Nevertheless, as for most other impression evidence, the current process used to evaluate and report the weight of shoemark evidence is under extreme scrutiny. Building on previous research, this paper proposes a model to evaluate shoemark evidence in a more transparent manner. The model is currently limited to sole pattern and wear characteristics. It does not account formally for cuts and other accidental damages. Furthermore, it requires the acquisition of relevant shoemark datasets and the development of automated comparison algorithms to deploy its full benefits. These are not currently available. Instead, we demonstrate, using casework examples, that a pragmatic consideration of the various variables of the model allows us to already evaluate shoemark evidence in a more transparent way and therefore begin to address the current scientific and legal concerns.