CHANGES IN CRIMINAL OFFENDING AROUND THE TIME OF JOB ENTRY: A STUDY OF EMPLOYMENT AND DESISTANCE

Does employment promote desistance from crime? Most perspectives assume that individuals who become employed are less likely to offend than those who do not. The critical issue has to do with the timing of employment transitions in the criminal trajectory. The turning point hypothesis expects reductions in offending after job entries, whereas the maturation perspective assumes desistance to have occurred ahead of successful transitions to legitimate work. Focusing on a sample of recidivist males who became employed during 2001–2006 (N = 783), smoothing spline regression techniques were used to model changes in criminal offending around the point of entry to stable employment. Consistent with the maturation perspective, the results showed that most offenders had desisted prior to the employment transition and that becoming employed was not associated with further reductions in criminal behavior. Consistent with the turning point hypothesis, we identified a subset of offenders who became employed during an active phase of the criminal career and experienced substantial reductions in criminal offending thereafter. However, this trajectory describes less than 2 percent of the sample. The patterns observed in this research suggest that transition to employment is best viewed as a consequence rather than as a cause of criminal desistance.     

IS THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ALCOHOL USE AND DELINQUENCY CAUSAL OR SPURIOUS?*

We attempt to isolate the effects of alcohol on different types of delinquent behavior by identifying the spurious portion of the relationship. Using data on adolescents from Finland, we compare the relationship between drinking and delinquent behavior while sober to the total relationship between drinking and delinquent behavior (sober or not). For each type of offense, we find a substantial relationship between drinking and sober delinquency, which suggests a good deal of spuriousness. For crimes of petty theft (shoplifting and stealing from home), the relationship between drinking and sober delinquency is just as strong as the total relationship, which suggests the relationship is almost completely spurious. For violence, vandalism, car theft, and graffiti writing, the alcohol‐sober delinquency relationship is weaker, which suggests that alcohol has a causal effect on these offenses.     

INEQUALITY,WELFARE STATE,AND HOMICIDE: FURTHER SUPPORT FOR THE INSTITUTIONAL ANOMIE THEORY*

Building directly on key insights from two prior tests of the institutional anomie theory, we predict that the positive effect of economic inequality on the level of lethal violence is limited to nations characterized by relatively weak collective institutions of social protection. This hypothesis is tested with two complementary cross‐national data sets. Both settings reveal a negative interaction effect between economic inequality and the strength of the welfare state. Nations that protect their citizens from the vicissitudes of market forces appear to be immune to the homicidal effects of economic inequality. This finding provides critical support for the institutional anomie theory.     

THE CULTURAL CONTEXT OF ADOLESCENT DRINKING AND VIOLENCE IN 30 EUROPEAN COUNTRIES*

Cross‐national variation in the effect of alcohol on adolescent violence is examined with survey data from 30 European countries. The data are analyzed using a method that makes it possible to isolate the nonspurious portion of the alcohol–violence relationship in different countries. In addition, multilevel models are used to estimate the effects of region and contextual measures of adolescent drinking on the alcohol–violence relationship. The evidence suggests that drinking has a strong effect on adolescent violence in the Nordic and Eastern European countries but has little or no effect in the Mediterranean countries. In the Mediterranean countries, where adolescents drink frequently but in moderation, the relationship between alcohol use and violence is almost entirely spurious. Findings suggest that the observed pattern is due to regional differences in the tendency for adolescents and their peers to drink to intoxication, as well as in their tendency to become intoxicated in settings where adult guardianship is absent.     

RELATIVE COHORT SIZE AND AGE‐SPECIFIC ARREST RATES: A CONDITIONAL INTERPRETATION OF THE EASTERLIN EFFECT*

The demographic theory formulated by Richard Easterlin (1980) predicts a positive relationship between the relative size of birth cohorts and their rates of criminal offending. Extensive testing of this hypothesis has produced scant support in the literature. Drawing on the emerging conditional interpretation of the Easterlin effect, we propose that the impact of fertility decline on the criminal behavior of the Baby Bust generation may have been suppressed by changes in family structure and racial differences in fertility. Although finding support for this argument, particularly in models explaining property crime, in the final analysis, our research underscores the marginal nature of the Easterlin effect as an explanation of criminal behavior.