Effect of Choice of Measure on the Size of a Racial Disparity

In criminological studies of racial disparities the effect of race on outcomes is assessed after statistical controls for other variables. There is no universally accepted measure of size of disparity after controls in the most common type of disparity study: the study of binary outcomes. Some such studies use a measure that lends itself to interpretation in terms of the proportional reduction in error (PRE). Most use a non-PRE measure of association. This study investigates the effect of choice of measure on conclusions about the size of a disparity after controls. For illustrative purposes the study analyzes data on the awarding of sentence reductions to drug traffickers. After controls, blacks are found to be substantially less likely than whites to receive a reduction according to a type of non-PRE measure: an odds ratio derived from a logit model. But using the same data and model, PRE measures obtained from an ROC analysis indicate that, after controls, there is hardly any difference between the races in their likelihood of sentence reduction. Results illustrate the study's thesis: that the choice of measure can powerfully affect conclusions. The findings' implications—for policymakers and for researchers who conduct racial disparity studies—are discussed.     

LESSENING THE STING OF ASFA: THE REHABILITATION‐RELAPSE DILEMMA BROUGHT ABOUT BY DRUG ADDICTION AND TERMINATION OF PARENTAL RIGHTS

Congress passed the Adoption and Safe Families Act of 1997 (ASFA) as a response to children waiting in foster homes for years without permanent placement. In addressing the problem of permanency, however, Congress set a strict limit on how long a child could be in foster care (15 out of the most recent 22 months) before a state must either commence a proceeding to terminate parental rights or else lose valuable federal funding. Due to health care funding schemes and quality of treatment, this requirement, in particular, negatively impacts parents currently in drug rehabilitation whose parental rights may be permanently terminated before a realistic chance to recover is permitted. Although ASFA requires that states make “reasonable efforts” to keep families united, it does not define “reasonable efforts,” leaving parental rights and family unity subject to a chaotic interpretation of this requirement from state to state. “Reasonable efforts” should be interpreted to take into account current drug addiction and recovery research and drug court programs should be used to facilitate this goal. Research has shown that focusing on adequate treatment saves states money and improves the lives of children and their families, reducing the need for reliance on termination of parental rights.     

A developmental approach to historical causal inference

Public Choice - Empirical historical research typically falls into one of three categories: the study of major historical events; the use of “history as data” to test general theories;...     

Brexit and Trade Ties between Europe and Commonwealth States in Sub-Saharan Africa: Opportunities for Pro-poor Growth or a Further Entrenchment of North–South Inequalities?

Abstract

Brexit will of course have major implications for trade between Commonwealth African nations and the European continent. In the short term, the European Commission’s Economic Partnership Agreements with regional groups such as the East African Community will be complicated by the UK’s decision to leave the European project. Moreover, there are longer-term consequences to be considered, not least the role which the UK—as an independent trade actor—will adopt in its trade relations with Commonwealth African countries. This article examines the impact of Brexit for Commonwealth African nations’ trade with Europe (including the UK). It particularly points to several potential pitfalls arising from the Brexit referendum vis-à-vis African development.