Women’s age at last childbearing and its determinants: a case study of Antwerp (Flanders,Belgium) on the basis of the multi-source COR* historical sample

Declines in the age at last childbearing in the first demographic transition reflected conscious changes in fertility behaviour during that period, in particular efforts to limit the total number of children. Such fertility limitation behaviour was the net result of ‘cultural causal factors’ on the one hand and ‘structural and economic causal factors’ on the other hand. This paper analyses the evolution of women’s age at last childbearing by reconstructing women’s life histories based on data from the multi-source COR* historical sample for Antwerp in the period 1846–1920. The paper also assesses the causes of this evolution through a number of theoretically grounded structural/economic, cultural and life course determinants, placing these concepts in a macro-micro framework of methodological individualism. For this purpose, in the first place a Kaplan-Meier analysis is applied to 10-year birth cohorts; a proportional hazard model is also applied to three different birth cohorts (mothers born before 1840; born in the period 1840–1859; and born after 1860); and a range of cultural and life course determinants are analysed, including women’s literacy status, marriage witness characteristics, the seasonality of marriages and births, and birth histories. The analysis confirms the decline in the age at last childbearing especially in the late cohort, and also highlights inter-cohort differences caused by cultural and life course determinants.     

Equity: Effects of Input and Outcome Orientation on Taking, Giving, and Dividing Money

Participants who were more inclined to consider ambiguous work elements as inputs (input-oriented or Type-I persons) or as outcomes (outcome-oriented or Type-O persons) were presented with situations in which they had delivered a higher or lower work performance than another person. They were asked to take money for themselves, give money to the other person, and divide a fixed sum of money between themselves and the other as reward for the performances. The specific combination of (input or outcome) orientation of the participant and the type of transfer (giving, taking, or dividing) determined the reward the participant allocated to him- or herself and/or to the other person. Type-I persons showed an egocentric bias in their allocation behavior, whereas Type-O persons allocated according to a maximin strategy.     

Frequency,timing and intensity of remarriage in 19th century Flanders

The article addresses the belief that the Early Modern period and the early 19th century were characterized by “many” remarriages. The confusion in the analysis, however, between proportion and intensity has led much research down the wrong track. The evolution in remarriage intensity and in some other sociodemographic remarriage characteristics was measured for the period 1800–1913 in Leuven, Aalst, and Bierbeek—three areas with different socioeconomic structures and cultural climates. Comparison of the age-specific ratios shows that the remarriage probability of widowed people was often lower than first-marriage probability of those not previously married, even in the first half of the 19th century. In so far as our data are representative of the Early Modern period, the claim that “many” remarriages took place then must be put into perspective. In fact—with the exception of young widowers—fewer remarriages than first marriages often occurred. The proportion of remarriages fell from 20–25% in the first half of the 19th century to 10–15% by the end of the century. The most frequently occurring remarriage type was that between a widower and an unmarried woman; the least common was between a widower and a widow. An additional cultural factor was that from approximately the mid-19th century on, first marriage was so central to the development of a private social environment and was so highly valued that a watered-down version, in the form of remarriage, was held in low esteem and even rejected.     

Six strategy lessons from Clausewitz and Sun Tzu

A good strategy is crucial for a successful lobby or public affairs campaign. In this article, six strategy lessons from Clausewitz and Sun Tzu's classical works on military strategy are discussed, which could be useful for lobbyists and public affairs managers. Although waging war and lobbying are totally different things, there are also many similarities: both deal with aims to be achieved, opponents, threats and opportunities, (political) victories, and defeats. Therefore, military strategic thinking might provide the field of public affairs with some good and practical insights. First of all, Sun Tzu and Clausewitz stress the importance of meticulous exploration before the action starts. Subsequently, when laying strategy plans, one should beware of Pyrrhic victories and ‘the fallacies of hope’. Clausewitz, in particular, warns us to expect the unexpected and not to be surprised by the friction between even the best plans and their realization. A good way to handle this friction is to lay down the why and the what of coming actions but not how these actions should be carried out. Both thinkers also provide guidance in how to effectively deal with opponents; surprise an opponent to achieve the upper hand, and bring yourself in a position which will enable a decisive step forward; divide opponents whilst making yourself as strong as possible; and finally prevent a hard‐edged confrontation by offering an alternative. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Looking for displacement effects: exploring the case of ecstasy and amphetamine in the Netherlands

This article assesses the role of crime displacement within organized crime, taking the Dutch synthetic drugs market as a case study. Since the late 1990s, the policy of the Dutch government has focused on raising barriers to synthetic drugs producers in obtaining precursors and other essential chemicals. The reason is simple. Without these chemicals there would be no synthetic drugs. Over the years, this policy has resulted in a scarcity of the main ingredients for synthetic drugs. But how have criminal organizations responded to this scarcity? Can displacement effects be identified and can they be attributed to specific prevention measures? The answer is a partial yes. Yes, crime displacement can be identified in organized crime. However, measuring the precise effects remains complex.