Economic voting: The effect of political context, volatility and turnout on voters' assignment of responsibility

Abstract.  This study analyses macroeconomic conditions and the electoral fortune of incumbents in 21 parliamentary Western countries between 1950 and 1997 in 266 national elections. Voters' assignment of responsibility for the state of the national economy is assumed to vary according to the context of the election. Building on previous research, the importance of the political context – clarity of responsibility and availability of alternatives – is analysed. The study also breaks new ground by introducing two new contexts of importance: volatility, seen from a systemic perspective, and the trend in turnout. The contextual hypothesis is confirmed. The universal economic effect as such is very weak indeed. However, given a favourable political and institutional environment (clear responsibility structure and availability of alternatives), an economic effect appears. Tests including the new contexts created on the basis of behavioural patterns in the electorate (system volatility and turnout trend) identify elections where the economic effects are even stronger.     

Forensic case profiling aspects on multiple homicides from the Cologne-Bonn metropolitan area 1985-2000

The medicolegal and subsequent criminologic interpretation of forensic and pathological findings in cases of homicide makes up an important tool of case profiling. In a retrospective study of 26 cases of "multiple homicides" involving 31 perpetrators (30 males, 1 female, mean age 33.5 years) and 73 victims (33 males, 40 females, mean age 36 years, 68 fatalities, 5 survivors), autopsy reports and prosecution authorities' files were investigated with regard to individual characteristics of victims and offenders, circumstances as well as mode of commitment. The major aim of this study was to comprehensively elucidate and characterise relevant forensic and criminologic features, which may gain importance for forensic case profiling. Forty-six victims were found in the close social environment of the perpetrator and 45 homicides were committed either in the victim's, the perpetrator's or the shared domicile. The main motives included concealment of a crime (n=13), personal conflicts/domestic arguments (n=7) and greed (n=12). The relevant injuries with regard to the cause of death were attributable to sharp force (n=13), blunt force (n=7), gunshot wounds (n=24), ligature strangulation (n=3), smothering (n=5), fire/carbon monoxide (n=4) and combined impacts (n=11). In 15 cases, so called defence injuries were found. In 5 victims a post-mortem blood alcohol concentration >1.5 g/l was determined. In six perpetrators, a severe psychiatric impairment of juridical responsibility was ascertained (Section 20 German criminal code, n=2, psychosis; Section 21 German criminal code, n=4, acute alcohol intoxication). As far as conviction data were available, 27 crimes were juridically assessed as murder, 12 as manslaughter and one as bodily harm with fatal consequences.     

Medicolegal aspects of witnessed suicide due to gunshot to the head. II. Legal medicine aspects and examination of the firing hand

The second part of the paper on suicides by gunshots to the head in the presence of witnesses focuses on relevant morphological autopsy findings such as entrance site, signs of close range or contact shots, bullet path etc. and also discusses selected aspects of ascertaining gunshot residues. For the identification of the shooter an integral medicolegal assessment of all the facts including the investigation results and the autopsy findings is essential. However, the morphological findings alone do not allow safe diagnosis, as for example in a homicide the temporal region, which was affected in all our cases, may have been deliberately chosen by the perpetrator as a localization typical of suicide. Thus methods to ascertain gunshot residues on the firing hand (by means of adhesive films and the polyvinyl-alcohol collection method--PVAL) are of great practical importance. In seven cases adhesive films and/or the polyvinyl-alcohol collection method were used. In one case the gunshot residues (GSR) were analysed by means of tape lifts and subsequent scanning electron microscopy (SEM). It was found that especially the combined application of topographical (adhesive tape/PVAL) and cumulative (SEM) methods allowed for the doubtless identification of the shooter, thus usually confirming the suicide. By the example of one case it is demonstrated that without the immediate collection of evidence at the scene objective reconstruction of the event becomes impossible. On the basis of the reported cases recommendations are finally given for a differentiated approach in the medicolegal evaluation of alleged witnessed suicide by gunshot (to the head).     

Injuries in fatal cases of falls downstairs

Downstairs falls frequently occur within domestic environments and are mainly associated with elderly and intoxicated individuals, often feature multiple injuries on various parts of the body. In most cases it is not possible to determine the cause of the fall and/or death solely by means of external examination. In this retrospective study, which covers a period of 11 years, all cases of death which included a fall downstairs in their case history, were collected from the Forensic Institutes of the Universities of Bonn and Greifswald, Germany. Falls downstairs made up to 2% (166 cases) of all postmortem examinations carried out within this period. Interestingly, almost double of the amount of such falls applied to males as to females. The primary cause of death was cranio-cerebral trauma and the vast majority of skull injuries associated with falls downstairs were found above 'the hat brim line'. Injuries were also often found on several other parts of the body at once. Nineteen of the 116 examined individuals exhibited agonal injuries. In these cases, postmortem examination revealed pre-existing disease or intoxication to be the cause of death and thus, cause of the fall. The injury pattern only allows a tendency towards vital or agonal incident as a conclusion.     

Analysis of 1989-1999 homicide crimes in the catchment area of the Bonn Institute of Forensic Medicine with reference to selected aspects

195 cases of homicide, grouped according to juridical assessment, were retrospectively analysed with regard to individual characteristics of perpetrators and victims, circumstances, and mode of commitment. The involvement of underage victims and perpetrators as well as differences between the urban and rural areas studied were taken into special consideration. To summarise, the majority of the offences studied was carried out by a male perpetrator with a mean age of 35 years driven by personal motives or greed in his immediate vicinity and affected family members or close acquaintances. The fatal injuries were mainly attributable to sharp or blunt force. With regard to killings of children, a higher prevalence of female victims and male assailants, emotional motives and an even higher importance of the social vicinity were found. Particularly in victims younger 12 years of age, manual modes of commitment without application of any tools were predominantly encountered. The comparison of urban and rural areas revealed a higher homicide rate in municipal areas especially of offences with a loose relationship between victims and assailants (greed, sexual assault). In contrast, rural areas exhibited higher rates of bodily harm with fatal consequences as well as offences by highly intoxicated assailants.     

Spinal epidural haematoma after blunt trauma to the neck and hyperflection of the cervical spine

Spinal epidural haematomas (sEDH) can be regarded as rare events, in principle a spontaneous and a traumatic aetiology can be distinguished. Spontaneous spinal epidural haematomas can arise, e.g. from vascular malformations, coagulopathies, etc. On the other hand, traumatic sEDH are related to, e.g. spinal trauma or intraoperative vascular injuries. With regard to clinical significance, spinal epidural haematomas accompanied by transient mild neurological symptoms up to lethal outcomes have been observed. We report on a 53-year-old male alcoholic who was found in the kitchen of his asylum in a grotesquely fixed body position, with his head and cervical spine in a maximum anteflected position. A general practitioner had ruled for a non-natural manner of death due to "broken neck" and alcohol intoxication, therefore, the prosecution authorities called for a medicolegal autopsy. At autopsy, paravertebral soft tissue haemorrhage in between the shoulder blades was disclosed. Furthermore, a spinal epidural haematoma, extending from the foramen magnum down to the middle portion of the thoracic spine was found. No fractures of vertebrae nor lesions of spine ligaments or bleedings of intervertebral discs were found. Blood alcohol concentration was determined 1.92 g/l and urine alcohol concentration was 1.76 g/l. Further morphological findings were cerebral oedema and cardiac hypertrophy; the urinary bladder was found filled to bursting. Neuropathological investigations confirmed the presence of the spinal epidural haematoma and assigned lethal significance to this finding. There were no histological signs of axonal injury. Reconstruction revealed that when sitting on a chair in a drunk condition, the individual's upper part of the body had fallen backwards in the corner and subsequently got stuck with maximum anteflection of the head and cervical spine, causing rupture of vessels and spinal epidural haematoma. Acute respiratory failure caused by impairment of the phrenic nerve following spinal epidural haematoma with potential synergism of alcohol intoxication was ascertained as the cause of death.     

Epistemic emotions in prosecutorial decision making

The article examines epistemic emotions as part of the emotive-cognitive processes of prosecutors’ knowledge seeking and decision making in preliminary investigation and court proceedings. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork, interviews, and shadowing of prosecutors in Sweden, we show how emotions motivate and orient prosecutors’ inquiries and the fundamental role of the ‘certainty–doubt spiral’ for ‘doing objectivity’. In conclusion, we discuss the centrality of emotions for conscientious and well-considered decisions in legal work. The study contributes to the field of law and emotion by exploring the epistemic quality of emotions, notably the certainty–doubt spiral, in legal work.     

From Car Wash to Bolsonaro: Law and Lawyers in Brazil's Illiberal Turn (2014–2018)

Law and lawyers tend to be seen as either preferential victims of or key counterforces to rising illiberalism. Brazil offers a good testbed for these claims. Brazilian democracy has deteriorated considerably, as epitomized by the election of Jair Bolsonaro in 2018. Yet, since 2014, law and lawyers have become ever more central to Brazil's field of state power. As the anti-corruption initiative Car Wash (Lava Jato) gained momentum, Brazilian judges and prosecutors were celebrated, locally and globally, as champions of transparency, accountability, and ‘the rule of law’. Following a closer look at Car Wash, this article questions such idealization of law and lawyers. Drawing on research on press interviews and statements by Car Wash legal officers, I find that, throughout the case, they produced a ‘political grammar’ that is closer to illiberalism than many would predict. Based on recent developments in the sociology of fields, I argue that the production of these grammars yields societal effects that deserve scholarly and civic attention.