Economic voting: The effect of political context, volatility and turnout on voters' assignment of responsibility

Abstract.  This study analyses macroeconomic conditions and the electoral fortune of incumbents in 21 parliamentary Western countries between 1950 and 1997 in 266 national elections. Voters' assignment of responsibility for the state of the national economy is assumed to vary according to the context of the election. Building on previous research, the importance of the political context – clarity of responsibility and availability of alternatives – is analysed. The study also breaks new ground by introducing two new contexts of importance: volatility, seen from a systemic perspective, and the trend in turnout. The contextual hypothesis is confirmed. The universal economic effect as such is very weak indeed. However, given a favourable political and institutional environment (clear responsibility structure and availability of alternatives), an economic effect appears. Tests including the new contexts created on the basis of behavioural patterns in the electorate (system volatility and turnout trend) identify elections where the economic effects are even stronger.     

A Classification Tree Approach to the Development of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment Tools

Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.     

Using the Referral Decision Scale to Screen Mentally Ill Jail Detainees: Validity and Implementation Issues

The prevalence of serious mental illnesses in jail populations is significantly greater than in the general population. Identifying individuals who warrant psychiatric evaluations is important and benefits correctional staff as well as detainees. One widely used screening instrument intended for this task is the Referral Decision Scale (RDS). This paper reviews the development and validation of the RDS. Using data from a multisite study which assessed postrelease outcomes for detainees with mental illness, various types of validity are addressed. The results confirm that the RDS has some inherent characteristics that seriously limit its practical application as a screening instrument for use by correctional staff.     

Estimating mental health needs and service utilization among prison inmates.

A sample of 3,684 inmates in the New York State prison system was surveyed in May 1986 to determine the prevalence of psychiatric and functional disability and service utilization. It was estimated that 5 percent had a severe psychiatric disability, and 10 percent had significant psychiatric disability. The higher the level of disability, the greater the proportion of inmates that had received mental health services in the last 30 days and in the last year. Still, 45 percent of the severe disability group had no service contacts in the last year. Patterns of utilization differed significantly by sex (a greater proportion of women received services) and by race (a greater proportion of whites received services). The clinical factors associated with receipt of services varied considerably between men and women.     

Epistemic emotions in prosecutorial decision making

The article examines epistemic emotions as part of the emotive-cognitive processes of prosecutors’ knowledge seeking and decision making in preliminary investigation and court proceedings. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork, interviews, and shadowing of prosecutors in Sweden, we show how emotions motivate and orient prosecutors’ inquiries and the fundamental role of the ‘certainty–doubt spiral’ for ‘doing objectivity’. In conclusion, we discuss the centrality of emotions for conscientious and well-considered decisions in legal work. The study contributes to the field of law and emotion by exploring the epistemic quality of emotions, notably the certainty–doubt spiral, in legal work.