The Office of Management and Budget in a Changing Scene

Authors' Note: It is too early to provide a definitive view and appraisal of the Office of Management and Budget in the Reagan presidency. The discussion that follows is based partly on current and recent articles and a few recent monographs and books, many of which are credited in footnotes. In additon we have relied upon a considerable number of interviews with current participants and alumni of OMB as well as with some observers from outside. It would be impracticable to list those who helped us, but we are grateful to all of them. The substance of this article was completed in mid-July 1982.     

Assessing the psychological and mechanical impact of electoral rules: A quasi-experiment

The paper assesses the influence of electoral rules on vote choice and election outcomes using a quasi-experiment conducted during a recent Canadian provincial election. Respondents were invited to vote under three voting systems (first past the post, alternative voting and proportional representation) and to answer a short questionnaire. We examine how the distribution of votes and seats is affected, and we ascertain how much of the total difference is due to psychological and mechanical effects. We find that a PR system would have increased legislative fractionalization by the equivalent of one effective party and that the mechanical effect is much more important than the psychological effect. As for AV, its mechanical and psychological effects act in opposite directions.     

Public Beliefs in the Causes of Wealth and Poverty and Legitimization of Inequalities in Russia and Estonia

The article analyzes the attributions of the causes of poverty and wealth in Russia and Estonia in 1991 and 1996 and their determinants. Among the latter are the perceived actual justice of the society, the perceived size of the middle class, and the personal position in the system of inequalities. Despite the economic hardships and a rise in inequalities in both countries, individualistic explanations of wealth and poverty have increased over the 5 years between the surveys. At the same time respondents in both countries demonstrated a growing awareness of the importance of starting positions and connections to achieve wealth. The perceived middle class has a significant effect on attributions of poverty but not on wealth. Russians in Estonia have a particular bias against wealth, whereas non-Russians in Russia are more likely to justify wealth on the basis of individual merit. Explanations of poverty and wealth in Estonia are more rooted in the factors of socialization (age, education, and gender), whereas in Russia they are more rooted in the changes in the family financial circumstances between 1991 and 1996. There was a general increase in support for government intervention in distribution in both countries.     

The political context and Duverger's theory: Evidence at the district level

A central tenet of electoral systems' research is that more parties should get votes in districts with large magnitudes than in districts with smaller magnitudes. This proposition is largely untested at the district level, even though that is the level at which relevant pressures are expected to work. At the aggregate level, research has found that there are systematic deviations from Duverger's law related to incentives from ethnolinguistic fragmentation, institutions, and strategic voting. This analysis confirms that many of these results hold at the district level, which is the most appropriate level for testing Duverger's law. District level party-system fragmentation patterns in 44 countries support Duverger's basic hypotheses. The effect of electoral institutions is contingent, however, upon the presence of social cleavages that generate pressures for additional parties, the establishment of patterns of party-system competition that help voters evaluate contenders' viability, and the absence of competing incentives generated by districts of varying magnitudes. These effects are robust to different specifications of social heterogeneity. However, we find no evidence that institutional features like federalism or presidentialism reduce the strategic effects of district level factors.     

Scottish women's studies

Abstract

This article outlines the content of the first Women's history course established in Bulgaria, at Sofia University, in 1999. The course focuses on Bulgarian women over the period from 1840 to 1940 and includes discussion of statistical data about Women's lives, the family, education and employment, as well as Women's subjectivities and cultural identities. Attention is also given to the analysis of powerful discourses about Women's role in society and the challenge of the Women's movement to these ideas. Wherever possible, comparative material from other Balkan societies and Western Europe is explored, as well as gender differences between men and women     

The Effect of Voting Technology on Voter Turnout: Do Computers Scare the Elderly?

In the aftermath of the Florida debacle in the 2000 Presidential election, there has been an emphasis on replacing voting equipment perceived as inferior (e.g., punch card ballots) with more technologically advanced voting methods. It is possible, however, that not all voters will be comfortable with high-tech voting devices. Elderly voters, for example, might be familiar with the old voting machines but apprehensive about computerized voting. If this is the case, the fear of new voting technology might cause the turnout of elderly voters to decrease. We test for this effect by analyzing the change in voter turnout across Georgia counties in the two most recent gubernatorial elections, as it relates to the share of the counties’ populations that is over the age of 65 years. Consistent with the hypothesis that computers scare the elderly, we find a significantly negative relationship between the change in voter turnout and the elderly share of the population. An additional 1% of the population that is elderly is associated with a 0.3–0.4% decrease in turnout. The hypothesis that elderly voters were apprehensive about the change in voting technology is also supported by the increase in absentee balloting.     

Police interrogation

Abstract

We describe a study of more than 1000 interrogations by Metropolitan Police Officers. Obtaining a confession is found to be the paramount reason for interviewing a suspect. However, few suspects who did not initially confess changed their minds during the interview. 42% of suspects admitted their guilt—about the same number as obtained before tape recording of interviews was introduced. Strength of evidence and legal advice were the principal factors associated with confessing. The confession rate also varied according to which police station hosted the “interview”. An “accusatorial” style of questioning was associated with the possession of strong evidence against the suspect.     

How do professionals experience working with offenders diagnosed with personality disorder within a prison environment?

To explore the different experiences of a Multidisciplinary Team working with offenders diagnosed with personality disorder (PD) and produce a substantive model of the Offender PD Pathway strategy from a staff perspective. Fourteen participants were recruited from ‘Unit A’ located within a high security prison. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with participants and the data collected were analysed using constructivist grounded theory. A model was constructed depicting the experiences of those working with offenders with PD. Main themes identified were: prison environment; synergy of the workforce; understanding of the client; individual perceptions; support; and personal change. Although there was enough similarity within the participants’ responses to consider them to be a homogenous population, there were some noticeable differences in trends of responses evident between the two sub-groups of health service-based clinical staff and prison staff as expressed in the model. There is interplay between factors which influence an individual’s experience of working with offenders with PD. How a member of staff experiences working with offenders with PD depends on more than just the nature of the client and the challenges they pose. These factors external to the client group appear to have a significant impact on the professional and their emotional experiences of their work.