A LATENT TRAIT APPROACH TO UNIFYING CRIMINAL CAREERS *

We propose a latent trait model that simultaneously accounts for both participation in crime and the frequency of crimes, phenomena that the criminal career model attributes to different causal processes. The criminal career model is predicated on a categorical distinction between active offenders and nonoffenders, but the latent trait model assumes a continuous distribution of propensity to offend. Our specific statistical model relates a relatively stable and general latent propensity to engage in crime to the frequency of criminal behavior. The latent trait model successfully fit both the proportion of offenders (participation) and frequency of offending for several samples and several measures of offending. The model fit both samples of whites and nonwhites and both males and females. This shows that separate causal processes are not necessary to account for group differences in frequency and in participation, which disproves the major evidence in favor of the criminal career model. Finally, the latent trait model yielded evidence that disparate sex differences in rates of participation for different categories of offenses are consistent with a single difference on a latent trait. This demonstrates the latent trait model's potential for parsimoniously unifying knowledge about criminal careers.     

TIME TRENDS AND AGE TRENDS IN ARRESTS AND SELF-REPORTED ILLEGAL BEHAVIOR*

National estimates of time trends and age trends in self-reported illegal behavior in the United States are compared with corresponding figures for arrests. The self-report data are from Monitoring the Future, an annual national survey of high school seniors. The analysis of time trends covers 1975 through 1985 for a sample of over 3,000 respondents per year, studied at a constant age. The analysis of age trends covers ages 17 through 23 for samples of 300 to 1,200 per year. Both self-report and arrest measures reveal substantial declines in illegal behavior throughout this age span, with the exception of arrests for assault. Both methods also indicate that rates of assault increased from 1975 through 1985, a finding that has not previously been reported. Time trends for other offenses were erratic.     

EXPLAINING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EMPLOYMENT AND JUVENILE DELINQUENCY*

Most criminological theories predict an inverse relationship between employment and crime, but teenagers' involvement in paid work during the school year is correlated positively with delinquency and substance use. Whether the work–delinquency association is causal or spurious has been debated for a long time. This study estimates the effect of paid work on juvenile delinquency using longitudinal data from the national Monitoring the Future project. We address issues of spuriousness by using a two-level hierarchical model to estimate the relationships of within-individual changes in juvenile delinquency and substance use to those in paid work and other explanatory variables. We also disentangle the effects of actual employment from the preferences for employment to provide insight about the likely role of time-varying selection factors tied to employment, delinquency, school engagement, and leisure activities. Whereas causal effects of employment would produce differences based on whether and how many hours respondents worked, we found significantly higher rates of crime and substance use among nonemployed youth who preferred intensive versus moderate work. Our findings suggest the relationship between high-intensity work and delinquency results from preexisting factors that lead youth to desire varying levels of employment.     

SCHOOL DISORDER: THE INFLUENCE OF INDIVIDUAL,INSTITUTIONAL, AND COMMUNITY FACTORS*

Drawing upon control theory, school climate theory, and social disorganization theory, this study examined the relative influence of individual, institutional, and community factors on misconduct in Philadelphia middle schools. Using U.S. census data, school district data, police department data, and school climate survey data obtained from the administration of the Effective School Battery to 7, 583 students in 11 middle schools, we examined the following predictors of student misconduct: community poverty and residential stability; community crime; school size; student perceptions of school climate (school attachment); and individual student characteristics (e.g., age, race, sex, school involvement and effort, belief in rules, positive peer associations). “Community” was conceptualized in two ways: “local” (the census tract around the school), and “imported” (aggregated measures from the census tracts where students actually lived). We used hierarchical linear modeling techniques (HLM) to examine between- and within-school factors. Individual-level factors accounted for 16% of the explained variance; school and community-level factors (both local and imported) added only small increments (an additional 4.1–4.5%). We conclude that simplistic assumptions that “bad” communities typically produce “bad” children or “bad” schools are unwarranted.     

Litigating Scientific Creationism, or "Scopes" II, III,…

This paper is concerned with the institutional role of courts in dealing with long term political conflict. Such conflict is likely to involve group mobilization on both sides; the analysis therefore utilizes a judicial interest group approach, presenting evidence from the on-going policy debate surrounding presentation of the Darwinian theory of evolution in public schools. The findings demonstrate the importance of courts in developing public policies, not only by articulating policy, but also by affecting subsequent moves by interest groups to promote their agendas elsewhere in the system. Many extended conflicts may not be resolved in institutional settings, but they may be repetitively reformulated and translated to engage the decisionmaking process of specific forums in on-going activities. In successive moves, each adversary attempts to shift the balance of power to its respective advantage, where, paradoxically, the parties may change sides as the debate travels full circle. The analysis also illustrates the advancement of the creation science advocates' game plan, beginning with a publicity-oriented strategy, which is a hallmark of the relatively "amateurish" litigant, and eventually moving to a result-oriented position, a more "professional" approach to the courts.