Approval and plurality voting with uncertainty: Info-gap analysis of robustness

Voting algorithms are used to choose candidates by an electorate. However, voter participation is variable and uncertain, and projections from polls or past elections are uncertain because voter preferences may change. Furthermore, electoral victory margins are often slim. Variable voter participation or preferences, and slim margins of decision, have implications for choosing a voting algorithm. We focus on approval voting (AV) and compare it to plurality voting (PV), regarding their robustness to uncertainty in voting outcomes. We ask: by how much can voting outcomes change without altering the election outcomes? We see fairly consistent empirical differences between AV and PV. In single-winner elections, PV tends to be more robust to vote uncertainty than AV in races with large victory margins, while AV tends to be more robust at low victory margins. Two conflicting concepts—approval flattening and approval magnification—explain this tendency for reversal of robust dominance between PV and AV. We also examine the robustness to vote uncertainty of PV in elections for proportional representation of parties.

     

Positivism and its limitations for strategic intelligence: a non-constructivist info-gap critique

Knowledge underlies rational choice between options. Predictive optimization is the prioritization of options according to their predicted outcomes based on available knowledge. The epistemological justification of predictive optimization is based on positivism, which asserts that facts and laws about the world exist and are discoverable. However, knowledge of human affairs in strategic adversarial interactions is often severely limited and erroneous: residual uncertainty is often vast. This results especially from deception and innovation by the adversary which introduce deep Knightian uncertainty. Consequently, predictive optimization is unreliable: outcomes may differ substantially from predictions. An alternative strategy for prioritization of options is info-gap robust satisficing: achieve critical goals (that are adequate but perhaps suboptimal) over a wide range of deviation of reality from current knowledge. The epistemological justification of robust satisficing is based on extending positivism to acknowledge and manage the unknown. Prioritization of options by robust satisficing manages both the limitations of knowledge and the need for achieving critical goals. This critique of positivism is not constructivist. Rather, we extend positivism to account for highly deficient knowledge. We present several examples and conclude by discussing the relation between inductive, abductive and deductive inference.     

Robust satisficing voting: why are uncertain voters biased towards sincerity?

The modern theory of voting usually regards voters as expected utility maximizers. This implies that voters define subjective probabilities and utilities for different outcomes of the elections. In real life, these probabilities and utilities are often highly uncertain, so a robust choice, immune to erroneous assumptions, may be preferred. We show that a voter aiming to satisfice his expected utility, rather than maximize it, may present a bias for sincere voting, as opposed to strategic voting. This may explain previous results which show that strategic voting is not as prevalent as would be expected if all voters were expected utility maximizers.     

Trends in the Incidence of Legal Problems and in the Use of Lawyers

Changes in the law, government regulations, socioeconomic changes, increased consumerism, the public's level of awareness—all these and other factors influence the population's demand over time for lawyers'services. This article analyzes the changes over time in the two elements that determine the demand for lawyers: the number of legal problems encountered by the population and the rate of use of lawyers in solving these problems. After showing that sequential occurrences of legal problems are not independent of each other and are age dependent, the author develops a mathematical model that explains the variability in the present number of problems encountered by different age groups. The number of problems is found to result from a relatively mild accumulation with age of legal problems, coupled with a strong increase in the number of problems from generation to generation. The analysis of individual legal problems reveals a variety of patterns from problem to problem in both the level of occurrence and the rate of use of lawyers for such problems. The author concludes that the combined effect of occurrence and utilization will operate toward a continuing increase in the demand for lawyers'services at least for the very near future.     

Collateral Attacks on Convictions (I): The Probability and Intensity of Filing

In the beginning of the 1970s the increased activity of filing collateral attacks on criminal convictions (postconviction petitions) made by prisoners in an effort to modify either the conviction or the sentence generated concern about the additional burdens imposed on the courts. This article is the first report of a study undertaken to quantify and analyze postconviction filings and their eventual disposition under various procedures, as reflected by the variety of procedures and degrees of accessibility to the courts in the states of Illinois, California, Texas, and Colorado. The present article describes and analyzes postconviction filing activity for these four states in terms of the probability of filing; the frequency of filing (the mean number of filings per filer and the number of filings per thousand prisoners); how long after incarceration filing took place; and patterns of filing over time. It is shown that contrary to widespread belief the notion that "every prisoner files" is not justified. The author concludes that the perceived high number of collateral attacks, not necessarily supported by the figures, stems from a large number of filings (except for Illinois) generated by a small proportion of prisoners. The author points out that modifications of the petitioning process can have a significant effect on the rate of filing and suggests changes in regulations that are likely to reduce the total number of petitions.     

Policy neutrality and uncertainty: an info-gap perspective

Reducing uncertainty is a central goal of intelligence analysis. 'Reducing uncertainty' can mean (1) reduce ignorance or ambiguity or potential for surprise in describing situations or intentions, or (2) reduce adverse impacts of ignorance, ambiguity or surprise on decision outcomes. We make two claims. First, the second meaning needs greater attention in intelligence analysis. Uncertainty itself isn't pernicious, but adverse impact of surprise is. Some policy options are less vulnerable to uncertainty than others. These less vulnerable (i.e. more robust) options can tolerate more uncertainty. Analysts should identify policy options that are robust to uncertainty. Second, reducing the impact of uncertainty requires awareness of policymakers' goals. This needn't conflict with analysts' policy neutrality. Tension between neutrality and involvement arises in economics, engineering, and medicine. The method of info-gap robust-satisficing supports decision making under uncertainty in these and other disciplines. Implications for intelligence analysis are explored in this paper. We discuss the assessment of Iraqi WMD capability in 2002.     

Shifting paradigms: from fostering equality to building safety nets. Analyzing some consequences of “privatization” in the Israeli kibbutz

As a result of a financial and demographic crisis, the Israeli kibbutz is experiencing a period of transformation. Many kibbutzim (kibbutzim is the plural form of “kibbutz” Hebrew) have abandoned the classic egalitarian way of life and have adopted a new paradigm in which each member receives a different income. This transformation process makes the kibbutz a unique test case for the preferences of people who face the choice between equality, capitalism or an in-between combination. This study uses data on a small sample of kibbutzim that have recently adopted a safety net model to derive some implications of this fundamental transformation for the income distribution within- and between kibbutzim. The results show that there is no longer equality between kibbutz members. However, the new kibbutz manages to minimize poverty. The new structure also encourages kibbutz’ female members to study and work towards greater equality in income and jobs.     

Transnational invariables in science policies: Canadian and Soviet experiences

Abstract. The content of science, at least that of the natural and exact sciences, is largely viewed as transnational, i.e. devoid of important peculiarities traceable to the political, social or cultural environments in which science develops. Yet policies affecting science in each individual country are known to vary substantially one from the other. For this paper, two rather different countries have been selected, the Soviet Union and Canada. The paper begins with the historical circumstances of, and expectations linked to, the transfer of modern science into each of the two countries. Resulting patterns of science organization are discussed, with particular emphasis being placed on the role of the central governments. Express attempts to foster science in order to catch up economically with older industrialized nations are characterized and their impact assessed. Finally, the contributions of scientists to formulation of science policies for their countries are analysed and linked with the prevailing patterns of employment of Canadian and Soviet scientific manpower. Sommaire. La matière des sciences, tout au moins des sciences naturelles et exactes, est généralement considérée comme transnationale, c'est-à-dire comme dépourvue de particularités importantes relevant des milieux politiques, sociaux et culturels dans lesquels elles se sont développées. Et cependant, on sait que les politiques qui, dans chaque pays, ont des répercussions sur les sciences différent considérablement entre elles. Pour cette étude, l'auteur a choisi deux pays trés différents: l'Union soviétique et le Canada. Il commence par exposer les circonstances historiques du transfert des sciences modernes dans chacun de ces deux pays ainsi que les attentes qui en découlent. Il étudie ensuite les scénarios qui s'en dégagent pour l'organisation des sciences en insistant plus particulierement sur le rôle du gouvernement central. Il décrit des efforts délibérés pour encourager les sciences afin de rattrapper économiquement les nations plus anciennement industrialisées et évalue l'effet de ces tentatives. Finalement, il analyse les contributions des scientifiques à la formulation des politiques régissant les sciences dans leur pays et considlère leurs effets sur les scénarios d'emploi de la main d'oeuvre canadienne et soviétique.