Evolutionary dynamics in the voting game

Voter participation is immense but theoretically doubtful because there exists cost of voting and the probability of casting the deciding ballot is low. Game theoretic models (Palfrey and Rosenthal, 1985) confirm this paradox of voting. Individual optimization in the voting game is problematic with respect to the rationality and information requirements of traditional game theory. Therefore in this paper a non-optimizing but learning individual is considered. By individual learning the adjustment processes and equilibria of voter turnout are determined. Voters are able to learn to participate and substantial voter turnout is possible.     

Challenges for China's Reform of Government Procurement

China's reform of government procurement aims to promote greater prudence in expenditure management through introducing transparency, accountability, and competition into the procurement process. The reform can also be construed as China's effort to fulfill its commitment to the WTO. This paper examines the evolution of the reform and measures the success of the reform against three indicators: the amount of cost reduction, the coverage of procurement activities, and the degree of harmonization with the WTO Agreement of Government Procurement. This paper argues that the success of the reform has been limited by an array of factors, including the misconceptions of certain procurement officials and their malpractices in procurement processes, the poor capacities of some local governments in enforcing reform, structural deficiencies in the budget management system, and the lack of political will of both central and local authorities in spurring trade liberalization.     

PENDULUM--a guideline-based approach to the interpretation of STR mixtures

Several years ago, a theory to interpret mixed DNA profiles was proposed that included a consideration of peak area using the method of least squares. This method of mixture interpretation has not been widely adopted because of the complexity of the associated calculations. Most reporting officers (RO) employ an experience and judgement based approach to the interpretation of mixed DNA profiles. Here we present an approach that has formalised the thinking behind this experience and judgement. This has been written into a computer program package called PENDULUM. The program uses a least squares method to estimate the pre-amplification mixture proportion for two potential contributors. It then calculates the heterozygous balance for all of the potential sets of genotypes. A list of "possible" genotypes is generated using a set of heuristic rules. External to the programme the candidate genotypes may then be used to formulate likelihood ratios (LR) that are based on alternative casework propositions. The system does not represent a black box approach; rather it has been integrated into the method currently used by the reporting officers at the Forensic Science Service (FSS). The time saved in automating routine calculations associated with mixtures analysis is significant. In addition, the computer program assists in unifying reporting processes, thereby improving the consistency of reporting.