A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability

Examining onsets of political instability in countries worldwide from 1955 to 2003, we develop a model that distinguishes countries that experienced instability from those that remained stable with a two-year lead time and over 80% accuracy. Intriguingly, the model uses few variables and a simple specification. The model is accurate in forecasting the onsets of both violent civil wars and nonviolent democratic reversals, suggesting common factors in both types of change. Whereas regime type is typically measured using linear or binary indicators of democracy/autocracy derived from the 21-point Polity scale, the model uses a nonlinear five-category measure of regime type based on the Polity components. This new measure of regime type emerges as the most powerful predictor of instability onsets, leading us to conclude that political institutions, properly specified, and not economic conditions, demography, or geography, are the most important predictors of the onset of political instability.     

Atrocity, Punishment, and International Law, Mark A. Drumbl

This timely book examines the practice and philosophy of punishmentfor atrocity crimes, both in international and domestic courts.It is a topic to which too little attention has been devoted,whether by the courts and tribunals that impose sentences foratrocity     

Democratic Transitions

Przeworski et al. (2000) challenge the key hypothesis in modernization theory: political regimes do not transition to democracy as per capita incomes rise, they argue. Rather, democratic transitions occur randomly, but once there, countries with higher levels of GDP per capita remain democratic. We retest the modernization hypothesis using new data, new techniques, and a three-way rather than dichotomous classification of regimes. Contrary to Przeworski et al. (2000) we find that the modernization hypothesis stands up well. We also find that partial democracies emerge as among the most important and least understood regime types.     

Assuring space shuttle orbiter subcontractor compliance with the NASA new technology clause

NASA's Charter demands that innovations arising from the agency's work receive the widest possible dissemination to bring about a transfer of the technology to the public welfare. This Spinoff from the Space Program is now a predictable event because of analyses done over the years by NASA and economists. However, the initial identification of innovations must be done through disclosures from NASA, prime contractor and subtier contractor employee innovators. Although NASA provides innovators with nominal cash awards for published innovations and inventions, a problem exists for NASA in assuring that all valuable innovations and inventions get promptly identified, reported and disseminated. This paper describes the technique developed by NASA's prime contractor for Shuttle Orbiter (Rockwell Space Division), which has successfully captured over 1200 innovations for NASA-JSC. Aspects of the Program described include the contract requirements, motivational techniques, results, problems, and a discussion of the results. An order of magnitude increase in innovation reporting resulted from Rockwell's activities primarily accomplished using an inexpensive four-step process implemented at about 200 subcontractor's facilities.