Public policy analysis in Washington and Ottawa

Policy analysis in the U.S. and Canada tends to follow the methods of systems analysis and takes into account variables relating to substantive matters as well as political and administrative constraints that governments face in pursuing different alternatives.Comparative analysis of the political effectiveness of the two governments in implementing the results of analysis indicates that Canada has built-in constitutional advantages. Comparative assessment of bureaucratic skills in policy analysis and policy implementation suggests that the American system is relatively weaker in terms of implementation, but relatively stronger in terms of policy analytical skills. This is followed by an assessment of the attempts made by the U.S. government to improve its policymaking structures through the setting up of the Domestic Council and the reorganized OMB, and the Canadian attempts to improve its policymaking capabilities through a reorganized Cabinet committee system and the strengthening of the Privy Council Office.The final section suggests that analysis of values and norms should be an integral part of policy analysis. The scope of policy analysis should be extended to include long-term economic and political analyses.     

Hand-held cow horn: resurgence of an old arm or a potential terrorist weapon

A 23 year old man presented with intestinal evisceration from stab injury to the left side of the abdomen with a hand-held cow horn at a local night party. He complained of severe abdominal pain and bleeding at the site of injury. He was hemodynamically stable. At emergency exploration, the eviscerated bowel was viable with no adjacent mesenteric tear. Other intra abdominal organs were normal. The eviscerated bowel was lavaged and reduced into the abdomen through the 7 cm anterior abdominal wall laceration. The laceration was repaired and abdomen closed in layers. Post operative recovery was uneventful. The hand-held cow horn can easily be concealed and may pass through security checks undetected. It should be added to the ever increasing list of weapons of small scale terror.     

Nonlinear convergence in Asian interest and inflation rates: evidence from Asian countries

We examine the dynamics of convergence in seven Asian countries for nominal and real interest rates, and inflation rates. We test for convergence relative to the U.S. and Japan, using quarterly data 1973:2–2011:3, employing nonlinear unit root tests. The linearity test shows evidence of nonlinearity in all the cases. In most cases, we find evidence of logistic smooth transition autoregression-type non-linearity. Moreover, nonlinear unit root tests reveal evidence of nonlinear stationary nominal and real interest rates and inflation differentials in all cases. We interpret these results as convergence in inflation rates and real and nominal interest rates.     

From systems analysis to policy analysis

How Much is Enough?By alain c. enthoven and k. wayne smith. New York: Harper and Row Systematic Thinking for Social Action. By alice rivlin. Washington: The Brookings Institution Eighth Annual Review: Design for Decision-Making. An Application to Human Resources Policies. By economic council of Canada. Ottawa: Information Canada     

Oil price changes and stock market returns: cointegration evidence from emerging market

The aim of this paper is to examine whether changes in nominal oil prices (Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI)) affect the stock market returns in the context of an emerging market framework. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach of cointegration is used to test for the long run relation between the two variables, where the daily stock market index return is calculated using the first difference in the natural logarithms of stock market index. Further, we test for the stability of the cointegration relationship by examining the sensitivity analysis where diagnostic tests for serial correlation (namely the Breusch–Godfrey serial correlations LM test) and cumulative sum of recursive residuals (CUSUM) are employed. Using daily data from January 3, 2000 to December 9, 2015, the findings suggest that there is long run integration between oil prices and stock returns series in which the daily oil price shocks have a negative impact on stock returns. The highly significant error correction coefficient indicates high rate of convergence to equilibrium. In addition, the Toda and Yamamoto (J Econom 66(2):225–250, 1995) Granger non‐causality test indicates significant bidirectional causality between stock market returns and Brent nominal oil price, meanwhile there is unidirectional causality running from WTI oil price to stock market returns. These findings are, up to some extent, meaningful for investors, portfolio managers and policy makers.     

Governing health and safety at lower tiers of the computer industry global value chain

Global brands remain under increasing pressure to ensure labor standards and codes of conduct are met by their suppliers. Little is known about how this is addressed by lower tier suppliers. We investigate whether, and how, occupational health and safety standards permeate down the computer industry value chain. We compare first and second tier suppliers' engagement with a private voluntary industry code, the Electronic Industry Code of Conduct, and the publicly regulated European Union Directive on the Restriction of Hazardous Substances. We find the industry code absent at the lower tier, yet second tier suppliers do implement the European Union Directive. This is achieved without support from public agencies or global value chain linkages. Our findings question the emphasis placed on chain governance in studies of labor compliance in global value chains, and suggest that alternative and complementary approaches may be required for effective labor compliance throughout the value chain.