AGE,DIFFERENTIAL EXPECTATIONS,AND CRIME DESISTANCE*

We specify an individual-level model linking crime desistance to estimates of legal risk, differential expectations, degree of past success at legitimate and criminal pursuits, and age. OLS and logistic regression procedures are used to estimate the model using longitudinal data on serious, previously imprisoned offenders. As predicted, age decreases estimates of the likely payoffs from crime and legitimate employment. Contrary to predictions, age is unrelated to the perceived legal risk of renewed criminal participation. Age, past success at avoiding confinement, expectations of success from crime, and level of education are significant predictors of crime desistance. Neither the perceived legal risk of crime nor expectations of success through straight pursuits significantly predict desistance. We suggest an interpretation for these anomalous findings.     

Whatever Happened to the Progressive Century?

In the mid-1990s, after eighteen years of Conservative rule, there was much talk about the prospects for a progressive century. Tony Blair, under the tutelage of Roy Jenkins, made it clear that he wanted to end the schism on the centre-left. Paddy Ashdown saw the same opportunity. Ironically, the electorate's desire to kick out the Conservatives and vote in progressives of any stripe delivered a Labour landslide that made cooperation impossible for Blair and Ashdown. Some progressive policies, notably on the constitution, have been implemented, but the political and intellectual roots to create a progressive century have yet to be properly established. Foreign policy divisions, especially on Iraq, have made this much more difficult. This article looks at the prospects for progressives—under new leadership—up to and after the next election in terms of ideas and policy.     

RESPONSES OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM TO LEGISLATION PROVIDING MORE SEVERE THREATENED SANCTIONS

In 1971, the Tennessee legislature enacted legislation providing for mandatory jail sentences and driver's license revocations for anyone convicted of driving while intoxicated. This new law had no demonstrable impact on the highway traffic fatalities rate-the intended objective. This paper explores the reasons for this apparent lack of impact. Data suggest that, while there was some increase in the severity of sanctions imposed on drunken drivers, there was still a consistent tendency to suspend the jail sentences and grant drivers restricted driving privileges. Nor is there any reason to believe that the police intensified their efforts to apprehend larger numbers of drunken drivers. Thus, the more severe sanctions threatened in the new law were generally mitigated in practice. Some possible interpretations for this are offered.     

SOME ADVANTAGES OF AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO IMPLEMENTATION ANALYSIS: A STUDY OF AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY POLICY

Models of policy implementation have been characterized by a tension between 'bottom' and 'top-down' approaches to public sector management. In recent years, this literature moved into 'third generation' in attempting to unify implementation analysis. One recent approach at consolidating key elements of 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' literature has been provided by Soren Winter. This article applies Winter's model to two longitudinal studies of industry programmes in Australia. This analysis suggests that Winter's integrated approach to implementation addresses some of the weaknesses of commonly used rational-comprehensive models such as the Mazmanian and Sabatier framework. However, there are also some weaknesses in Winter's integrated model which implies an agenda for future implementation analysis.     

GENDER ROLES AND FEMALE CRIMINALITY Some Critical Comments

This paper investigates the recent claim that women are becoming increasingly involved in aggressive or serious criminal activities. On the basis of an a priori classification of aggressive crimes, a review of three different types of data reveals no unambiguous pattern of change in women's criminality. Several theoretical problems which hove inhibited the systematic development of the relationships between gender roles and criminality are discussed. Particular attention is paid to the lack of conceptual precision that characterizes the use of the terms gender and aggressive crime.     

The Barriers to Media Opening in Latin America

Despite the spread of electoral democracy, few Latin American media systems today encourage the deepening of democracy. We attribute this outcome to (a) generalized weakness in the rule of law, (b) holdover authoritarian legislation, (c) oligarchic ownership of media outlets, (d) uneven journalistic standards, and (e) limited audience access to diverse sources of information. Reforms designed to address these problems could include the appointment of special prosecutors to investigate crimes against journalists; replacement of criminal libel laws with civil procedures; legislation protecting journalists' sources and guaranteeing transparency in government; the establishment of nonpartisan boards to allocate broadcast concessions, administer state-owned stations, and distribute government advertising; user fees to expand public media; and various measures to enhance professional standards.     

Too Real? The Future of Virtual Reality Evidence

Immersive virtual environments (IVEs), or virtual reality, could soon follow other visual technologies from the culture at large to the courtroom. The unprecedented realism of IVEs may be thought to pose peculiar risks of prejudice and confusion that would militate against their use as demonstrative evidence. In particular, some believe that jurors will be unable to distinguish IVEs from reality, and that IVEs are so involving that they will transform jurors from disinterested judges of, into witnesses to, or even participants in, litigated events, impairing their objectivity. This article analyzes these concerns and shows them to be overstated. The article also discusses other judgmental risks and benefits presented by the use of IVEs in court, and concludes that the admissibility of IVE evidence should be determined on a case-by-case basis.