Collective failure? Lessons from combining forecasts for the UK's referendum on EU membership

Research on election forecasting suggests there are benefits from combining different sources of information. This paper discusses the experience of a combined forecasting method that was developed for the UK’s EU referendum in 2016. The sources included opinion polls, vote expectation surveys, prediction and betting markets, expert and volunteer forecasts, and various forecasting models based on polling and other kinds of data. Averages of sources within each of these categories all, in our final forecast, suggested Remain was more likely to win but with varying degrees of certainty. Combining them produced a forecast that beat some but not others. Opinion polls and citizen forecasts came closest to the true outcome. Betting and prediction market participants and volunteer forecasters were the most overconfident that the UK would vote Remain. This may have been because they were distrustful of the polls following the 2015 general election miss and had too strong an expectation of a late swing towards the status quo similar to those in Scotland in 2014 and Quebec in 1995.     

Instruments for Exploring Organizational Culture: A Review of the Literature

Organizational culture is widely considered to be one of the most significant factors in reforming and modernizing public administration and service delivery. This article documents the findings of a literature review of existing qualitative and quantitative instruments for the exploration of organizational culture. Seventy instruments are identified, of which 48 could be submitted to psychometric assessment. The majority of these are at a preliminary stage of development. The study's conclusion is that there is no ideal instrument for cultural exploration. The degree to which any measure is seen as "fit for purpose" depends on the particular reason for which it is to be used and the context within which it is to be applied.     

‘the revolution will be led by a 12-year-old girl’: girl power and global biopolitics

This paper presents a poststructuralist, postcolonial and feminist interrogation of the ‘Girl Effect’. First coined by Nike inc, the ‘Girl Effect’ has become a key development discourse taken up by a wide range of governmental organisations, charities and non-governmental organisations (NGOs). At its heart is the idea that ‘girl power’ is the best way to lift the developing world out of poverty. As well as a policy discourse, the Girl Effect entails an address to Western girls. Through a range of online and offline publicity campaigns, Western girls are invited to take up the cause of girls in the developing world and to lend their support through their use of social media, through fundraising and consumption. Drawing on a wide range of policy documents, media outputs and offline events, this paper explores the way in which the Girl Effect discourse articulates notions of girlhood, empowerment, development and the Global North/South divide.     

The effects of environment and substrata on deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA): the use of casework samples from New York City

This study was designed to analyze the effects of the environment and substrata on the quality of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) isolated from evidentiary specimens. The quality of DNA isolated from actual casework specimens was determined by measuring its size by agarose gel electrophoresis. The information obtained could be used to predict the suitability of the DNA in the samples for restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis. The evidentiary specimens chosen for DNA were classified according to substrate (scrapings, plastic bags, synthetics, denim, and carpet) and according to a subjective evaluation of the condition of the stain (soiled, damp, or putrefied) and to its size (small or large). The results show that DNA of sufficient quality and high molecular weight (HMW) can be reliably isolated from bloodstains deposited on evidentiary items which have an unknown environmental history and which have dried onto a variety of substrata. Subsequent RFLP analysis of a selected number of these samples verified that the DNA was suitable for this type of analysis.     

Harmonisation: how is the orchestra conducted?

Harmonisation of donor efforts is one of the current buzzwords in the world of official aid. However, while it is an attractive idea in theory, as long as donors do not recognise and address the operations of power in the aid relationship, harmonisation is likely to be counterproductive in promoting locally initiated responses to development challenges.