Parallel event sequences in international crises

This study presents a theory of foreign policy decision-making based on event structures that would account for the ability of foreign policy experts to make short-term predictions in the presence of incomplete information and noise. An algorithm is devised that constructs subsequences of events that occur in international crises coded in the Behavioral Correlates of War (BCOW) data set. Four subsets of BCOW crises are considered: nonwar crises, pre-World War I wars, post-World War I wars, and a mixture of nonwar and war crises. About six common subsequences are found in each of the sets; these cover about 35% of the events in the crisis sequences after the sequences have been filtered on the basis of novelty. The subsequences differ substantially between the subsets of crises and exhibit a degree of internal consistency. The subsequences also can be used to differentiate between nonwar and war crises by using the fit of each subsequence to construct a vector characterizing the crisis, then clustering on the basis of those vectors.     

Methods Meet Policy: Transnational Monitoring of the Israel–Palestine Conflict

For the past 2 years, the Kansas Event Data System project has been using event data and other web-based sources to produce quarterly reports on the Israel–Palestine conflict for the swisspeace (Swiss Peace Foundation) FAST Project, which is sponsored by Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation and a number of non-governmental organizations. This paper describes the indicators that we are monitoring, the process we have developed to generate the reports, and the supplemental sources we are using. We address the issue of the differences between newspaper and news wire reports with respect to "media fatigue" effects and also analyze some of the strengths and weaknesses of this approach to conflict monitoring.     

Taking Your Academic Expertise Public: Lessons Learned Responding to the 11 September Crisis

The advantage of academic life is that society allows us to spend years reading things no one else reads, writing articles and books almost no one else reads, and traveling to places no one else travels to. But in times of crisis, when the totally unexpected becomes reality, society understandably expects that we serve our communities with knowledge, explanation, insights, and policy alternatives. The days, weeks, and months following the attacks of 11 September were such an occasion and many academics experienced sudden demands for public commentary and analysis. As international studies scholars, we have insights and knowledge that our communities require and desire, most notably in times of crisis. By responding to the best of our abilities, we are able to return something to society and help people understand more clearly the world in which we live. In this essay, we discuss how we handled this challenge in the wake of 11 September and the lessons we have learned through that process.     

Reverse engineering--rapid prototyping of the skull in forensic trauma analysis

Rapid prototyping (RP) comprises a variety of automated manufacturing techniques such as selective laser sintering (SLS), stereolithography, and three-dimensional printing (3DP), which use virtual 3D data sets to fabricate solid forms in a layer-by-layer technique. Despite a growing demand for (virtual) reconstruction models in daily forensic casework, maceration of the skull is frequently assigned to ensure haptic evidence presentation in the courtroom. Owing to the progress in the field of forensic radiology, 3D data sets of relevant cases are usually available to the forensic expert. Here, we present a first application of RP in forensic medicine using computed tomography scans for the fabrication of an SLS skull model in a case of fatal hammer impacts to the head. The report is intended to show that this method fully respects the dignity of the deceased and is consistent with medical ethics but nevertheless provides an excellent 3D impression of anatomical structures and injuries.