Rivaling the PRI: The Image Management of Vicente Fox and the Use of Public Opinion Polling in the 2000 Mexican Election

This research examines the data from private polls conducted during Vicente Fox's presidential campaign through the lenses of the "modernization" of campaigning, the creation of image in the modern Mexican presidency, and the survey tools used by the campaign to achieve a historic presidential victory in 2000. Fox's campaign team used polling to determine the potential of the Mexican public to be persuaded by an opposition candidate, to provide a continuous update on how the campaign strategy was working, to assist in solidifying Fox's image and message of change (rather than promoting his policy agenda), and to target demographic groups that were perceived to be important electoral partners. These findings suggest that public opinion polling is a useful tool in Mexico to combat longstanding corporatist structures used to favor the PRI. Presidential campaigns in Mexico are beginning to resemble modern campaigns in other mature democracies in their use of private polling data; future Mexican campaigns will become more image- and personality-based.     

Messenger RNA profiling: a novel method for body fluid identification by real-time PCR

Conventional methods for the identification of different body fluids like blood, semen and saliva from biological stains involve immunological or enzymatic detection of certain proteins. In this study, we investigated potential RNA markers with the aim of developing Real-Time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) based methods to allow differentiation between several body fluids. Total RNA samples from artificially stained swabs and from various pieces of evidence from case work were extracted, amplified and analyzed with several RNA markers. Three assays detecting the body fluids of interest were selected: hemoglobin-alpha locus 1 (HBA), kallikrein 3 (KLK) and mucin 4 (MUC). With this approach, we demonstrate that specific Real-Time PCR assays are useful in identifying the source of the biological stain. Furthermore, RNA profiling of various body fluids was even possible on samples stored over a long period of time at ambient temperature. The stability and sensitivity of the applied method outlines a novel application for Real-Time PCR within the forensic field.     

Laws for Sale: Evidence from Russia

How does regulatory capture affect growth? We construct measuresof the political power of firms and regional regulatory captureusing microlevel data on the preferential treatment of firmsthrough regional laws and regulations in Russia during the period1992–2000. Using these measures, we find that: (1) politicallypowerful firms perform better on average; (2) a high level ofregulatory capture hurts the performance of firms that haveno political connections and boosts the performance of politicallyconnected firms; (3) capture adversely affects small-businessgrowth and the tax capacity of the state; and (4) there is noevidence that capture affects aggregate growth.

"oligarchy ... throws a close network of dependence relationshipsover all the economic and political institutions of present-daybourgeois society without exception... ." —Vladimir Lenin,"Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism" (1916)

     

A comprehensive population survey on the distribution of STR frequencies in Belarus

This work develops a detailed STR database from 11 population samples and samples from paternity analyses from different districts of Belarus. The combined data on 2020 individuals form a total database for the country, with the exclusion power of 99.987% based on 11 STR loci. Possible differentiation in allele frequencies between population samples, small in terms of F-statistics and undetectable by standard statistical tests, is discussed.     

Third time lucky? Establishing diplomatic relations between Russia and South Africa

Diplomatic relations between Russia and South Africa were established in 1992, before South Africa's transition to democracy was completed. This move was perceived as a betrayal by many in both countries and beyond. For many decades the Soviet Union supported the African National Congress in its fight against the apartheid regime. South Africa's National Party government, in its turn, presented the USSR as the main force behind the ‘total onslaught’ – an all-out war purportedly waged against South Africa by international communism. Yet it was with the National Party government that the Russians established diplomatic relations. This article looks into the reasons for this change of heart in Moscow and Pretoria, discusses the political forces behind the decision to establish diplomatic relations, and analyses the process that led to this event and the results of establishing diplomatic relations the way it happened and at the time it happened for both countries.     

Measuring Government Favouritism Objectively: The Case of Romanian Public Construction Sector

Government favouritism in the allocation of public funds raises costs for any society in which corruption prevails. Particularistic transactions can be identified in three different situations: uncompetitive awards of public contracts when there is only one “competitive” tender, when public money is spent on contracts supplied by politically connected firms, and a situation of capture in which one private contractor obtains a disproportionate share of contracts issued by some public agency. This present research has tested for the relevance of those three types of particularistic transactions that signal government favouritism as they apply to the Romanian construction sector for the period from 2007-2013, and to do so has made use of original public procurement databases. Furthermore, it will be proposed here that the “kickback”—a percentage of particularistic awarded values—can be used as a measurement of corruption. Even conservatively estimated, kickbacks account for much of the cost borne by any society that fails to eradicate corruption. For our purposes here, amounts of kickbacks at county level have been controlled against criminal convictions for corruption at county level. As a result, data analysis provides strong evidence that kickbacks based on particularistic allocation of public funds are indeed relevant in the measurement of corruption, and the steps used to evaluate kickbacks can be used just as well for other countries.     

Assessing Committee Roles in a Developing Legislature: The Case of the Ukrainian Parliament

The Ukrainian parliament consistently attracts scholarly attention as one of the developing parliaments in the Former Soviet Region that is succeeding with institutionalisation. This study assesses committee roles in the legislative process and discusses factors that are associated with strong or weak roles for committees. We bring evidence from the Ukrainian parliament to test traditionally hypothesised institutional factors in committee studies, such as roles of government and parties. To account for the difference between developed and developing legislatures, we add an attitudinal component to the analysis. The results confirm that traditionally hypothesised factors are important in assessing committee roles. However, important intervening factors such as strength and size of factions and the range of ideologies have to be taken into account to explain institutional dynamics in a developing legislature. In addition, an analysis of attitudes provides a valuable insight into the development of committee roles in a developing legislature.     

Economic and Social Policy Trade-Offs in the Russian Regions: Evidence from Four Case Studies

Through case studies of four Russian regions, we examine the trade-offs between social and economic policy at the regional level. All four regions studied seek to stimulate entrepreneurship while preserving or expanding social welfare coverage. Regions differ in development strategies, some placing greater emphasis on indigenous business development and others seeking to attract outside investment. Variation in levels of democracy are unrelated to policy choices. All four regional governments consult actively with local business associations while organised labour is weak. The absence of effective institutions to enforce commitments undermines regional capacity to make social policy an instrument for long-term development.