When Context Matters: Assessing Geographical Heterogeneity of Get-Out-The-Vote Treatment Effects Using a Population Based Field Experiment

The presence of heterogeneity in treatment effects can create problems for researchers employing a narrow experimental pool in their research. In particular it is often questioned whether the results of a particular experiment can be extrapolated outside the specific location of the study. In this article, we use a population-based field experiment in order to test the extent to which treatment effects for impersonal mobilisation techniques (direct mail and telephone) are sensitive to where they are carried out (geography) and the context of the election in which they were conducted. We find that on the whole it does not much matter where an experiment is conducted: the treatment effects are to all intents and purposes geographically uniform. This has important implications for the external validity of get-out-the-vote field studies more generally, especially where single locations are used. However, there is one important exception to this: experiments carried out in high turnout locations at high salience elections may show larger effects than those carried out in low turnout areas.     

An investigation into the use of a portable cyanoacrylate fuming system (SUPERfume®) and aluminum powder for the development of latent fingermarks

Abstract: Few techniques offer “in situ” methods of friction ridge skin mark development. “In situ” development reduces mark transportation, degradation, and often cost. The effectiveness of cyanoacrylate fuming using the SUPERfume^® and dusting with aluminum powder for latent fingermark development on several nonporous surfaces, stored in various temperature environments for time periods up to 52 weeks, was investigated. Five thousand and four hundred latent fingermarks were deposited under controlled conditions and graded. The results suggested that cyanoacrylate fuming (SUPERfume^®, Foster and Freeman, U.K.) was more effective at developing latent fingermarks on textured and smooth plastic surfaces and for marks stored in temperatures of 37°C, whereas aluminum powder was more effective on glass, enameled metal paint, and varnished wood, and for storage temperatures below 20°C. There were no significant benefits to using either technique for marks older than 24 h, but it was possible to develop fingermarks following 52 weeks of storage using both techniques.     

An Investigation into the Effects of Force Applied During Deposition on Latent Fingermarks and Inked Fingerprints Using a Variable Force Fingerprint Sampler

Physical factors, including the magnitude of the force applied during fingermark deposition, may affect friction ridge surface area and clarity, and the quantity of residue transferred. Consistency between fingermarks may be required; for example, in research projects, yet differences between marks are likely to exist when physical factors are not controlled. Inked fingerprints and latent fingermarks were deposited at 1–10 N at 1 N increments using a variable force fingerprint sampler to control the force, angle of friction ridge and surface contact, and the duration of friction ridge and surface contact. Statistically significant differences existed between the length and width measurements of the inked prints (p ≤ 0.05), particularly at lower forces. Scanning electron microscopy and surface plot analysis demonstrated how differences in force applied during deposition affected ridge surface area, displacement of latent residue, and differences in the quantity of residue transferred. Consistency between inked prints was demonstrated at equivalent forces.     

Do impersonal mobilisation methods work? Evidence from a nationwide Get-Out-the-Vote experiment in England

While face-to-face mobilisation has a demonstrable effect on voter turnout, a series of field experiments show that impersonal methods, such as telephoning and direct mail, are less effective. This paper provides a new test of the effectiveness of telephone and direct mail on voter turnout, which uses a large nationally representative Get-Out-the-Vote two-wave field experiment. We find that impersonal methods are more effective, though the magnitude depends on electoral context. Moreover, these effects accumulate both within and across elections as voters are exposed to multiple contacts. However this is an incremental and cumulative process, not the product of synergy.     

Mobilisation or Marginalisation? Neighbourhood Effects on Muslim Electoral Registration in Britain in 2001

Competing theories of political participation predict varying levels of engagement among minority groups according to the composition of the locality. For example, some previous research has shown that electoral turnout among minority groups tends to be higher in areas where those groups are concentrated. However, there has been little or no similar evidence pertaining to electoral registration. Using data from the 2001 general election in England and Wales we find that Muslim registration levels are higher in predominantly Muslim areas, giving credence to the argument that minority electors are mobilised through social connectedness and community networks, rather than marginalised through deprivation and segregation.     

It’s a Group Thing: How Voters go to the Polls Together

Political Behavior - Across European Parliament, local and general elections in Denmark between half and three quarters of voters in households with multiple voters cast their vote within a minute...     

Being a voter: developing a survey instrument for expressive voting

It has been argued that expressive motivations are a crucial element in persuading people to vote, overcoming the “paradox of voting” and it has been demonstrated that in experimental situations, subjects behave in a manner consistent with expressive voting. However, there have been limited attempts at operationalizing expressive voting in a survey context and these have been unable to successfully separate the influence of outcome related benefits (instrumental pay-offs) from expressive pay-offs. In this paper, we use a web survey experiment to first identify citizens with a propensity to behave expressively and then assess the validity of the instrument.     

The electoral effectiveness of constituency campaigning in the 2010 British general election: The ‘triumph’ of Labour?

This article establishes a model of likely campaign effectiveness, before examining the intensity of constituency campaigning at the 2010 general election in Britain and its subsequent impact on electoral outcomes, using both aggregate and individual level data. It shows that constituency campaigning yielded benefits in varying degrees for all three main parties and that Labour’s constituency campaign efforts were effective despite the electoral context, and ultimately affected the overall outcome of the election. These findings have significant implications for our understanding of the circumstances under which campaigns are likely to be more or less effective, and provide further evidence that a carefully managed campaign stands the most chance of delivering tangible electoral payoffs.     

The anatomy of Liberal support in Britain, 1974–1997

This article uses data from the British Election Study series since 1974 and qualitative data from interviews with key party personnel to investigate the social and political basis of Liberal support in Britain. There are three main sections to the article: the first deals with the social and demographic profile of the Liberal vote, while the second examines the political characteristics of its supporters. In the final section these findings are used to assess the Liberal Democrats' electoral strategy at the 2001 General Election and beyond. We find that Liberals tend to be drawn from a similar social background to Conservative supporters (particularly in term of class), but politically there has been an increasingly close relationship between the Liberal Democrats and the Labour Party.