Social Media Influence on Diplomatic Negotiation: Shifting the Shape of the Table

Social media is changing not only the atmosphere in which international negotiations take place; it is also changing the very substance of the deals. Because of the pace and proliferation of social media, negotiators must read “weak signals” early on—and anticipate a quickly organized, highly motivated opposition. However, diplomatic negotiators still lack the tools to engage in this sort of anticipatory strategy design. This article examines two recent cases, one involving the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and the other involving a German Constitutional Court’s ruling on the European Central Bank’s Public Debt Purchasing Program, in which social media had a highly disruptive, unanticipated impact on international negotiations—to the point of forcing negotiators’ hands—and suggests institutional remedies to better anticipate the catalytic impact of advancing technology on diplomatic interactions.     

Identifying the Source of Incumbency Advantage through a Constitutional Reform

This study provides one of the first causal estimates of both the personal and partisan incumbency advantages. Using data on six local elections taking place during the last 20 years in 278 municipalities in Portugal, it relies on a reform introducing mayoral term limits as a natural experiment that creates exogenous variation on the incumbency status of officeholders while holding the incumbency status of the party constant. A new methodology combining two quasi‐experimental methods, the regression discontinuity and the difference‐in‐discontinuities designs, allows for a credible estimation of the independent personal and partisan returns to incumbency. Results causally identify the personal effect as the driver of the incumbency advantage.     

Referendums in the Third World

Since the early 1960s many Third World countries have been attracted to referendums, with the earliest being held in Uruguay in 1917, Iraq in 1921 and Chile in 1925. Butler and Ranney(1978) identified referendums in Third World nations up to 1978, yet analysis of the political process and patterns of these referendums is lacking in the political science literature. It is the purpose of this paper to identify some of the patterns and processes common to African, Asian, Latin American and Middle Eastern referendums. The paper will examine briefly the Western democratic referendums, excluding the experience of Switzerland and Australia where referendums are an integral part of the constitutional and political process. Secondly, the general and regional Third World patterns will be examined. Thirdly, referendums in nine countries will be described; lastly, the paper will conclude with the identification of the common patterns and processes of Third World referendums. In this paper we are concerned with post- independence national level referendums; although, many referendums have been conducted on a subnational level and prior to independence.     

Development of a harmonised method for the profiling of amphetamines V: Determination of the variability of the optimised method

This paper is the fifth in a series of six in relation to the development of a harmonised method for the profiling of amphetamine [L. Aalberg, K. Andersson, C. Bertler, H. Borén, M.D. Cole, J. Dahlén, Y. Finnon, H. Huizer, K. Jalava, E. Kaa, E. Lock, A. Lopes, A. Poortman-van der Meer, E. Sippola, Development of a harmonised method for the profiling of amphetamines I. Synthesis of standards and compilation of analytical data, Forensic Sci. Int. 149 (2005) 219-229; L. Aalberg, K. Andersson, C. Bertler, M.D. Cole, Y. Finnon, H. Huizer, K. Jalava, E. Kaa, E. Lock, A. Lopes, A. Poortman-van der Meer, E. Sippola, J. Dahlén, Development of a harmonised method for the profiling of amphetamines II. Stability of impurities in organic solvents, Forensic Sci. Int. 149 (2005) 231-241]. The third paper [K. Andersson, K. Jalava, E. Lock, L. Aalberg, Y. Finnon, H. Huizer, E. Kaa, A. Lopes, A. Poortman-van der Meer, M.D. Cole, J. Dahlén, E. Sippola, Development of a harmonised method for the profiling of amphetamines III. Development of the gas chromatographic method, Forensic Sci. Int., in press] dealt with the optimisation of the gas chromatographic and detection methods whereas the fourth paper [K. Andersson, K. Jalava, E. Lock, Y. Finnon, S. Stevenson, L. Aalberg, H. Huizer, E. Kaa, A. Lopes, A. Poortman-van der Meer, M.D. Cole, J. Dahlén, E. Sippola, Development of a harmonised method for the profiling of amphetamines IV. Optimisation of sample preparation, Forensic Sci. Int., in press] concerned the optimisation of the extraction method prior to GC analysis. This paper is a study of the optimised method in order to determine its stability. Investigations of within and between day variations were carried out in four laboratories. Moreover, variations between laboratories were also determined. Both flame ionisation detector (FID) and MS detection were used. One laboratory studied nitrogen-phosphorous detector (NPD) detection as well. For this task, 12 batches of amphetamine were prepared. Six of them were synthesised via the Leuckart route, three via the nitrostyrene route and three via the reductive amination route [A.M.A. Verweij, Impurities in illicit drug preparations: amphetamine and methamphetamine, Forensic Sci. Rev. 1 (1989) 2-11]. Taking into account all studied target compounds and the average results from four laboratories, the within day variation was around 6% for FID and 5% for MS, the between days variation was around 10% for FID and 8% for MS. For NPD detection, within day variation was 5% and between days variation 9% (only one laboratory). Finally, the inter-laboratory variation was about 12% for FID (four laboratories) and 10% for MS (three laboratories).     

Genetic study of 15 STRs loci of Identifiler system in Angola population

Angola is located in the African continent, in the area of southern Africa and has a population of approximately 14 million inhabitants. The Angola population has origin from Occidental and Southern Bantu people that came from the great lakes region, creating the most ever known African migration of our days.Allele frequencies for the 15 STRs loci in the AmpFlSTR Identifiler kit (D8S1179, D21S11, D7S820, CSF1PO, D3S1358, HUMTH01, D13S317, D16S539, D2S1338, D19S433, HUMVWA, TPOX, D18S51, D5S818, HUMFIBRA/FGA and including the segment of the X-Y homologous gene amelogenin) were studied for Angola population.The genotype frequency of the 15 STR loci showed no significant deviations from Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium expectations and great values for the combined power of discrimination and combined power of a priori exclusion validate the application of these markers in forensic genetics. Comparative analyses between Angola population data and other relevant population database from Africa, Europe and American are presented.     

The EU and China in a Polycentric World:The Case of Afghanistan

A Polycentric Post-Hegemonic World The world is becoming polycentric.The unipolar moment is fading,as the U.S.President himself has recognized.The relative decline of the U.S.and the EU is not the consequence of the current financial crisis but of the rise of China,India and Brazil and of a number of middle powers.As the EUISS ESPAS Report on Global Trends 2030 predicts,there will be a plurality of actors,and no single world power will play a hegemonic role.Polycentrism will be accompanied by an economic power shift toward Asia,where over half of the world's population will be concentrated by 2030.     

Forensic application of Y chromosome SNPs in inconclusive cases

Biallelic markers, Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs), are nowadays a powerful tool in the analysis of degraded samples. Namely, Y chromosome SNPs allow to determine the gender of the analyzed sample and to establish its haplogroup, making possible to attribute the ethnicity of male individuals. The aim of this study is to obtain Y-SNPs in forensic samples without STRs results, checking methodologies previously used.     

Potential definition of the time of death from autolytic myocardial cells: a morphometric study

Morphometric methods and transmission electron microscopy were used to quantify modifications occurring in the mitochondria of dog myocardium during the first four hours of autolysis. Myocardial fragments were obtained from the outer free wall of the left ventricle, during anesthesia (control-zero) and at 15, 45, 120, and 240 min after cardiac arrest, maintaining the heart "in situ" at 22 degrees C. During the 240 min of autolysis, the main parameters evaluated showed: (a) a decrease in the number of mitochondria from 0.31 to 0.12 per micron 3 of cytoplasm. The decrease over the first 45 min reached 50% of the initial value; (b) an increase in mitochondrial volume, three times greater after the first 45 min (from 0.92 to 2.68 micron 3) and four times greater after 240 min (from 0.92 to 3.79 micron 3); (c) an increase in mitochondrial outer membrane surface area from 5.51 to 12.54 micron 2; (d) an increase in the surface area of individual mitochondria inner membrane and cristae from 27.60 to 56.96 micron 2. The progressive nature of the alterations and the difference in the numerically expressed values allow correlation with the time of somatic death. The authors emphasize the need for further studies in order to complement the present study.