1989-2029年大转型——可以更好或将会更好吗?

本文对中东欧国家自1989年以来发生的后社会主义制度转型进行了理论和现实的阐释,考察了其历史特性,批驳了该地区已经在制度上成为完全成熟的市场经济体的论点,而认为中东欧国家在转型方面还有很长的路要走.文章强调,后社会主义市场转型进程不会呈直线型发展.在现实社会主义经济体的市场改革与后社会主义市场转型之间存在着巨大差异.只有在更加精确地确定目标,同时不是将制度转型当作是自我实现的目标的前提下,不同国家在不同程度上才会取得更好的转型绩效,否则会朝相反方向发展.     

Evidential value of injuries useful for reconstruction of the pedestrian-vehicle location at the moment of collision

The paper presents final results of the studies concerning the usefulness of knee, ankle, hip, pelvis and neck injuries in reconstructing the circumstances of car-to-pedestrian accidents. Each type of injuries was evaluated with regard to possible reconstruction of the victim's position (upright or recumbent) at the moment of collision and in the upright hits-the side of the pedestrian's body hit. In each group, a chance of proper reconstruction of the pedestrian's location (which determined the frequency of injury pattern assumed as the typical one of a given position or impact side) and error risk (percentage of cases in which the injury pattern showed improper position or impact side) were calculated. These data were compared with similarly calculated possibilities of deducing based on the classical "bumper" injuries to soft tissues and "bending" fractures of the lower limb bone diaphyses. It was shown that the bone bruises within the knee epiphyses were very specific evidence for upright hits as they confirm the limb load by body mass at the moment of pathological dislocation of joint structures on impact. The evidential value of knee injuries was found to be similar to that of other "classical" methods based on bumper injuries or even higher in lateral and front hits. The injuries to the remaining structures were less frequently found and their correlation with the victim's position or impact side was lower. Nevertheless, once the whole complex of these injuries is taken into consideration the chances of proper reconstruction of the pedestrian-vehicle location increase and the risk of opinion error is minimized.     

非洲猪瘟CD2v胞外区基因片段的真核表达及其多克隆抗体的制备

本研究利用真核表达系统表达非洲猪瘟病毒的CD2v胞外区蛋白,研究其免疫特性,制备多克隆抗体并研究其性质,为研发特异性单抗奠定数据基础.以非洲猪瘟病毒Wuhan2019-1株(GenBank:MN393476.1)为模板,合成CD2v胞外区基因序列,并将其克隆至真核表达载体pCAGGS载体中,获得pC-AGGS-CD2v...     

Postmortem Analysis of Electrogram Records from an Implantable Cardioverter‐Defibrillator (ICD) in the Reconstruction of a Road Traffic Accident

The case of a 69‐year‐old man, equipped with an ICD and suffering from several chronic cardiac diseases, who died in a car accident, was presented. We analyzed electrogram records from the ICD explanted from the body during the autopsy, which showed that the driver had suffered from malignant ventricular arrhythmia—ventricular fibrillation (VF). A thorough analysis of the details of the accident, as well as the timing of VF and the rhythm observed after the discharge of the ICD showed that the direct cause of the accident was the episode of arrhythmia resulting in a loss of consciousness. Therefore, the presented case illustrates the usefulness of postmortem analysis of electrogram records from ICDs in the reconstruction of road traffic accidents. In such cases, if the victims are implanted with ICDs, it should be a routine procedure performed by forensic pathologists.     

A Two‐Level Model for Evidence Evaluation in the Presence of Zeros*

Abstract: Likelihood ratios (LRs) provide a natural way of computing the value of evidence under competing propositions. We propose LR models for classification and comparison that extend the ideas of Aitken, Zadora, and Lucy and Aitken and Lucy to include consideration of zeros. Instead of substituting zeros by a small value, we view the presence of zeros as informative and model it using Bernoulli distributions. The proposed models are used for evaluation of forensic glass (comparison and classification problem) and paint data (comparison problem). Two hundred and sixty‐four glass samples were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy, coupled with an energy dispersive X‐ray spectrometer method and 36 acrylic topcoat paint samples by pyrolysis gas chromatography hyphened with mass spectrometer method. The proposed LR model gave very satisfactory results for the glass comparison problem and for most of the classification tasks for glass. Results of comparison of paints were also highly satisfactory, with only 3.0% false positive answers and 2.8% false negative answers.     

Information‐Theoretical Assessment of the Performance of Likelihood Ratio Computation Methods

Performance of likelihood ratio (LR) methods for evidence evaluation has been represented in the past using, for example, Tippett plots. We propose empirical cross‐entropy (ECE) plots as a metric of accuracy based on the statistical theory of proper scoring rules, interpretable as information given by the evidence according to information theory, which quantify calibration of LR values. We present results with a case example using a glass database from real casework, comparing performance with both Tippett and ECE plots. We conclude that ECE plots allow clearer comparisons of LR methods than previous metrics, allowing a theoretical criterion to determine whether a given method should be used for evidence evaluation or not, which is an improvement over Tippett plots. A set of recommendations for the use of the proposed methodology by practitioners is also given.     

The influence of the type of accelerant, type of burned material, time of burning and availability of air on the possibility of detection of accelerants traces

The presented research consisted in a series of field experiments and laboratory analyses of obtained samples. Their aim was to investigate how different factors influence the possibility of identification of accelerant traces in conditions that are as similar as possible to those of real fires. The studied factors were: type of burned material, type of accelerant, length of time between lighting and extinguishing of fire and the air availability level. The obtained results show that, among investigated factors, the type of burned material has the greatest influence. The other factors, with regard to their influence, could be ranked in descending order as follows: 'other' (hard to determine and regulate factors), type of accelerant, time of burning and air availability. 'Other' factors include arrangement of the burned material and dispersion of the accelerant.     

The influence of ethanol on the level of ketone bodies in hypothermia

Presently available possibilities of macro- and microscopic diagnosis of death from hypothermia are very limited as the changes observed are either weakly specific (ecchymoses in the mucous membrane of the stomach, histological features of haemorrhagic pancreatic necrosis, cardiomyocyte necrosis or decreased content of glycogen in hepatocytes) or represent only local action of low temperatures (frostbites, violet patches in the region of knees and elbows, red livores) and they may not be present in cases of death from cooling at environmental temperature close to zero or higher.The study evaluated the usefulness of acetoacetic acid (Ac-Ac), beta-hydroxybutyric acid (beta-HBA) and acetone determinations in blood, urine and vitreous humour for diagnosis of death from hypothermia. These three substances called ketone bodies, are easily assimilated energetic substrates that get oxidized preferentially before glucose and fatty acids. In hypoglycaemia (also hypothermia-induced one), the tissues dependent on glucose (e.g. the brain) cover most of their energetic needs from oxidation of these compounds.The analysis of 16 cases of death in circumstances suggesting hypothermia (mainly of the alcohol abusers) showed that the degree of ketosis was inversely proportional to the blood ethanol concentration. This relation may result from stimulation of insulin release and a decrease in the release of its antagonists by ethanol, as well as from inhibition of free fatty acid (FFA) beta-oxidation due to increase in the NADH/NAD ratio. So, the antiketonaemic effects of ethanol (together with its influence on the dilatation of the peripheral vessels and inhibition of shivering thermogenesis by muscle relaxation), explain increased sensitivity of intoxicated persons to low temperatures.     

The influence of the type of accelerant, type of burned material, time of burning and availability of air on the possibility of detection of accelerants traces

The presented research consisted in a series of field experiments and laboratory analyses of obtained samples. Their aim was to investigate how different factors influence the possibility of identification of accelerant traces in conditions that are as similar as possible to those of real fires. The studied factors were: type of burned material, type of accelerant, length of time between lighting and extinguishing of fire and the air availability level. The obtained results show that, among investigated factors, the type of burned material has the greatest influence. The other factors, with regard to their influence, could be ranked in descending order as follows: ‘other’ (hard to determine and regulate factors), type of accelerant, time of burning and air availability. ‘Other’ factors include arrangement of the burned material and dispersion of the accelerant.