The race may be close but my horse is going to win: Wish fulfillment in the 1980 presidential election

Using data from the 1980 U.S. presidential election, we investigate the extent to which voter expectations about candidate electoral success and margin of victory are subject to systematic biases. In particular, we examine the extent to which candidate supporters overestimate their choice's likelihood of success. After finding a rather dramatic bias in the direction of wishful thinking, we review alternative explanations of this phenomenon, including a model based on nonrandom contact networks and one based on preference-related differences in expectations about exogenous variables that could affect the election outcome.     

End note: Reflections and limitations

Abstract

It may seem curious to some readers to match the outstanding athlete biographical sketches of the main scholar-researchers of this volume with their fierce message regarding the threat to sport, and its practitioners, from sexual harassment. In an absolutist, three second sound bite, mass consumption stereotype-driven developed world, one might expect here a “weakest link” debate about the value(s) of sport. This debate would feature effete, intellectual critics and very muscular, tradition-bound advocates. Not so; for these writers not only demonstrate well-reasoned and literature-informed arguments, and thorough, data-driven analyses but also courageous research programmes extending back to times when the work they did was completely marginalised and misunderstood. Their work, then as now, was fuelled in great part by a deep awareness and regard for the experience of sport as a healthy and joyful human right and by a wish to preserve it as such, for all.     

Louisiana's Ethical Culture and Its Effect on the Administrative Failures Following Katrina

Louisiana's history of colorful politics and corruption in government is legendary, and within Louisiana, it is something celebrated—or at least warmly embraced—as part of the cultural richness of the state. An oft-repeated phrase is that Louisiana is no more corrupt than any place else, it's just that Louisianans are proud of it. Though such sentiment is certainly not true of everyone in Louisiana, it is a quality that permeates discussions of federal financial assistance to the state in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and helps explain the widespread misuse of assistance funds. Yet beyond concern for the loss of dollars are the very real and tragic consequences for the citizens who were most affected by Hurricane Katrina—who have received but a trickle of the flood of money that has poured into the state. For these people, who remain without adequate shelter, resources, educational opportunities, health care, and support networks, the recovery progress has remained basically unchanged over the last two years. An overview of the ethical culture of Louisiana and reflections on how that culture contributed to and exacerbated administrative failure in the wake of Katrina is presented here.     

Cities and people: Towards a gender-aware urban planning process?

Recognition of the deficiencies of traditional ‘blueprint’ approaches to land use and infrastructure planning has led to increased emphasis on management of the process of urban development. Such management should recognize the distributional impacts of decision-making and be responsive to the needs of residents. However, much urban planning activity has been and continues to be gender-blind. In order to redress this deficiency, it is argued that increased understanding is needed of women's economic and social roles in urban society, their exclusion from economic opportunities and decision-making processes, and the discriminatory nature of much legislation. Urban residents’ experience is shaped both by household strategies and by the way in which they are affected by or can affect planning, investment and management decisions made at the neighbourhood or city level. Differing experiences may be related to class and ethnicity, but are also likely to be gender-specific. The potential impact of policy and investment in a variety of sectors of urban development on residents, especially women, is explored. Recommendations are made for a more gender-aware approach to planning for economic activity, land and shelter, public transport and infrastructural and social services, and for specific actions to be taken by both planners and residents.     

The local state and urban local government in Zambia

It is argued, with reference to urban local government in Zambia, particularly in Lusaka, that recent debates on the form and functions of the national state in Africa may be used to illuminate the working of the urban local state. Available evidence on the class interests represented in the urban local state is reviewed, and these interests and their actions with respect to personal accumulation and political clientelism are found to be similar to those found at the national level. The urban local state in Zambia performs functions similar to those which have been revealed by analyses of other countries, although the nature of these functions, and the extent to which they are successfully performed, is influenced by the political and economic context, the institutional framework and especially the constraints imposed by central government on local autonomy. The changes proposed in the 1980 Local Administration Act are outlined, and a preliminary assessment made of the extent to which they are likely to change the form and functions of the urban local state.     

B. Reviews

THE CAMBRIDGE HISTORY OF ARABIC LITERATURE. Volume 1: Arabic Literature to the End of the Unayyad Period. Edited by A.F.L. Beeston, T.M.Johnstone, R.B.Serjeant and G.R.Smith, pp.xvi, 547. Cambridge University Press, 1983. £37.95.

AL‐MAQRIZI'S “BOOK OF CONTENTION AND STRIFE CONCERNING THE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE BANU UMAYYA AND THE BANU HASHIM”. Translated into English, with an introduction and commentary by C.E.Bosworth. (Journal of Semitic Studies, Monograph No.3), Manchester, Department of Near Eastern Studies, University of Manchester, 1980. pp.157.

ARABIC CULTURE THROUGH ITS LANGUAGE AND LITERATURE. By M.H. Bakalla. London, Kegan Paul International, 1984. pp.371, 51, plates, maps.

ARABIC LINGUISTICS: AN INTRODUCTION AND BIBLIOGRAPHY. By M.H. Bakalla. London, Mansell, 1983. pp.742.

LA RELATION DE THOMAS PELLOW: UNE LECTURE DU MAROC AU 18^e SIÈCLE. By Magali Morsy. (Synthèse No.12), Paris, Editions Recherche sur les Civilisations, 1983. pp.254, 17pl. FF.129.

ESPANA Y EL NORTE DE AFRICA: EL PROTECTORADO DE MARRUECOS (1912–56). By Victor Morales Lezcano. Madrid, Universidad Nacional de Educacion a Distancia, 1984. pp.249. Photos., maps, diagrams. 600.00 ptas.

EGYPT AND THE PALESTINE QUESTION 1936–1945. By Thomas Mayer. Berlin, Klaus Schwarz Verlag, 1983. pp.391 (paperback).

SUDAN. By M.W.Daly. (World Bibliographical Series, Vol.40.) Oxford (UK) & Santa Barbara (USA), Clio Press, 1983. pp.xvi, 176, 1 map. £19.50.

THE OTHER FACE OF OPEC: FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO THE THIRD WORLD. ENERGY RESOURCES AND POLICIES OF THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA. By Ibrahim F.I. Shihata. London, Longman, 1982. pp.281 (paperback).

DEVELOPING EDUCATION SYSTEMS IN THE OIL STATES OF ARABIA: CONFLICTS OF PURPOSE AND FOCUS. By J.S.Birks and J.A.Rimmer. (Occasional Papers Series, No.21: Manpower and Migration Series, no.3). University of Durham, Centre for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, 1984. pp.33. E2.50.

BIBLIOGRAPHICAL GUIDE TO IRAN: THE MIDDLE EAST LIBRARY COMMITTEE GUIDE. Edited by L.P.Elwell‐Sutton. Sussex, The Harvester Press/New Jersey, Barnes & Noble Books, 1984. pp.462.

ARABISCHE UND PERSISCHE PRIVATURKUNDEN DES 12. UND 13. JAHRHUNDERTS AUS ARDABIL (ASERBEIDSCHAN). By Monika Gronke. (Islamkundliche Untersuchungen, Bd 72), Berlin, Klaus Schwarz Verlag, 182. pp.555.

MYSTICISM AND DISSENT: SOCIORELIGIOUS THOUGHT IN QAJAR IRAN. By Mangol Bayat. Syracuse, N.Y., Syracuse U.P., 1982. pp.xvii, 228. $25.00.

SOCIAL DISINTEGRATION AND POPULAR RESISTANCE IN THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE 1881–1908: REACTIONS TO EUROPEAN ECONOMIC PENETRATION. By Donald Quataert. New York, Columbia U.P., 1983. pp.xxii, 205. $45.50.     

When Initial Interviews Are Delayed a Year: Effect on Children's 2-Year Recall

Three- to nine-year-old children were interviewed about a medical emergency (injury requiring hospital ER treatment) two years after it occurred. Half of the number of children had been interviewed shortly after injury as well as 6 and 12 months later, while the remaining children had had only one prior interview a year after injury. There was remarkably little long-term deterioration in memory by both groups. Having a delayed initial interview had two effects, and both were relevant only to the harder-to-remember hospital treatment event: (a) The late-interview group was less accurate, and (b) early-interview children had more extensive free recall, suggesting that multiple prior interviews teach children the “rules of the memory game' when they are asked open-ended questions. Forensic implications are discussed.     

The epidemiology of female rape victims who seek immediate medical care: temporal trends in the incidence of sexual assault and acquaintance rape

Women who seek medical care following sexual assault are usually evaluated and treated in an emergency department (ED). Therefore, EDs can be an important source of sexual assault surveillance data. The authors compared the incidence of sexual assault presenting for emergency care in a single county during July to November of 1974 and 1991. Participants included all female sexual assault victims aged 14 and older who presented for ED evaluation. Treating physicians prospectively collected data using standardized forms. The z statistic was used to compare sexual assault incidence. There was a 60% increase in the incidence of sexual assault victims presenting for emergency care in 1991 compared to 1974, primarily due to an increase in the incidence of women presenting to the ED after rapes by known assailants. In contrast, the annual incidence of reported stranger assaults was similar in the two study years.