Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares

With new technically advanced methods and computers at our disposal, the efficient market hypothesis is once again being debated. At the same time, we are witnessing an unprecedented growth in both existing and new financial markets. These new markets are often in economies which have just recently embraced free market economics; we term these stock markets infant markets. Such stock markets are obviously not efficient in allocating the supply of savings to productive capital. We do not test whether or not these infant markets are informationally efficient, but instead examine whether and how they are becoming more efficient. We propose modelling the excess returns of individual securities using a multi-factor model with time-varying coefficients and generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) errors. If the markets are becoming more informationally efficient or the agents are learning, we would expect this to manifest itself as the time-varying coefficients becoming more stable as time increases. We test our model using data on four Bulgarian shares. First, we estimate an AR(2) model and a GARCH-M(1,1) model for the shares. Then, we estimated our AR(2) model with time varying coefficients and GARCH type errors. We find varying levels of efficiency and varying speeds of movement towards efficiency within our sample of four shares.     

The decision to leave an abusive relationship: The testing of an alternative methodological approach

Most studies that consider the factors influencing the decision to leave an abusive relationship rely on retrospective, self-report data. In addition to the biased samples that are frequently obtained in such investigations, the methodological shortcomings of survey research limit its explanatory power, particularly when applied to such sensitive topics as family violence. This report introduces an alternative method for studying the decision to leave an abusive relationship. Forty-five men and 68 women were studied using an experimental computer game of an abuse-like relationship. The tendency to leave this relationship was measured under four differing conditions of severity and frequency of abuse. A logit analysis revealed that the frequency of abuse was more consequential to women's decisions to leave, while severity of abuse was more salient for men. In addition, the hypothesized model, including frequency of abuse, severity of abuse, and locus of control, fits well for women but not for men. The implications of these findings, as well as the validity and future application of experimental games, are discussed.     

Where and When to Spank: A Comparison Between U.S. and Japanese College Students

Although physical punishment has been studied for decades, there are gaps in the literature regarding frequently used form, context, and cross cultural differences. A comparison was made using 227 college students in the United States and Japan, who were presented with four scenarios and surveyed regarding attitudes toward physical punishment, perceptions of appropriate discipline methods, and past experience with physical punishment. Japanese and U.S. respondents reported similar personal experience with physical punishment (Japanese 86%, U.S. 91%). However, U.S. respondents reported a higher likelihood of being hit with an object than did Japanese respondents. For U.S. respondents, the bottom and the hand were the top two sites on the body used for physical punishment, whereas the head and the face were the top two places for the Japanese sample. Unlike U.S. respondents, type of child misbehavior was found to have an impact on Japanese respondents’ views on the appropriate discipline method.     

ECJ allows service marks for retail trade and tells Nestle it can 'HAVE A BREAK' without having a Kit Kat

In response to a reference from the UK Court of Appeal, undertrade mark Directive 89/104/EEC of 21 December 1988, the ECJdetermined that distinctive character may be acquired throughuse as part of an already registered trade mark.     

Federal policy mandating safer cigarettes: a hypothetical simulation of the anticipated population health gains or losses.

If manufacturing a safer cigarette is technically possible--an open question--then mandating that tobacco manufacturers improve the safety of cigarettes would likely have both positive and negative implications for the nation's health. On the one hand, removing toxins may reduce the incidence of smoking-related diseases and premature mortality in smokers. On the other hand, smokers might be less inclined to quit, those who have quit might resume the habit, and youth who have never smoked will have one less reason to avoid tobacco use. To assess the expected population health impacts of a legislative or regulatory mandate, we created the Tobacco Policy Model, a system dynamics computer simulation model. The model relies on secondary data and simulates the U.S. population over time spans as long as 50 years. Our simulation results reveal that even if requiring cigarettes to be safer makes smoking more attractive and increases tobacco use, a net gain in population health is still possible.     

Leviathan and Fiscal Illusion in Local Government Overlapping Jurisdictions

This paper integrates twomodels of local government behavior,leviathan and fiscal illusion, into theframework of overlapping jurisdictions.Estimation of the leviathan and fiscalillusion variables without accounting forvertical effects between overlappingjurisdictions results in overestimation ofthe horizontal effects. Using a medianvoter model and municipal and county datawe find support for the leviathan modelusing traditional tests. These effects arelargely offset, however, when the test isset within the context of the verticalrelationship. We find that municipal percapita expenditures and county per capitaexpenditures are symmetricallycomplementary.