Regression Discontinuity Designs Based on Population Thresholds: Pitfalls and Solutions

In many countries, important features of municipal government (such as the electoral system, mayors' salaries, and the number of councillors) depend on whether the municipality is above or below arbitrary population thresholds. Several papers have used a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to measure the effects of these threshold‐based policies on political and economic outcomes. Using evidence from France, Germany, and Italy, we highlight two common pitfalls that arise in exploiting population‐based policies (compound treatment and sorting), and we provide guidance for detecting and addressing these pitfalls. Even when these problems are present, population‐threshold RDD may be the best available research design for studying the effects of certain policies and political institutions.     

STR analysis of artificially degraded DNA-results of a collaborative European exercise

Degradation of human DNA extracted from forensic stains is, in most cases, the result of a natural process due to the exposure of the stain samples to the environment. Experiences with degraded DNA from casework samples show that every sample may exhibit different properties in this respect, and that it is difficult to systematically assess the performance of routinely used typing systems for the analysis of degraded DNA samples. Using a batch of artificially degraded DNA with an average fragment size of approx. 200 bp a collaborative exercise was carried out among 38 forensic laboratories from 17 European countries. The results were assessed according to correct allele detection, peak height and balance as well as the occurrence of artefacts. A number of common problems were identified based on these results such as strong peak imbalance in heterozygous genotypes for the larger short tandem repeat (STR) fragments after increased PCR cycle numbers, artefact signals and allelic drop-out. Based on the observations, strategies are discussed to overcome these problems. The strategies include careful balancing of the amount of template DNA and the PCR cycle numbers, the reaction volume and the amount of Taq polymerase. Furthermore, a careful evaluation of the results of the fragment analysis and of automated allele calling is necessary to identify the correct alleles and avoid artefacts.     

Learning to Cooperate: Learning Networks and the Problem of Altruism

We explore how two populations learn to cooperate with each other in the absence of institutional support. Individuals play iterated prisoner's dilemmas with the other population, but learn about successful strategies from their own population. Our agent-based evolutionary models reconfirm that cooperation can emerge rapidly as long as payoffs provide a selective advantage for nice, retaliatory strategies like tit-for-tat, although attainable levels of cooperation are limited by the persistence of nonretaliatory altruists. Learning processes that adopt the current best response strategy do well only when initial conditions are very favorable to cooperation, while more adaptive learning processes can achieve high levels of cooperation under a wider range of initial conditions. When combined with adaptive learning, populations having larger, better connected learning relationships outperform populations with smaller, less connected ones. Clustered relationships can also enhance cooperation, particularly in these smaller, less connected populations.     

STATE REGULATORY REFORM AND FEDERAL REGULATION

In the current political climate, it seems likely that a "New Regulatory Federalism" will push for deregulation at the federal level, with more regulatory responsibilities for the states. During the 1930s, economic regulatory responsibilities were assumed by the federal government. Protective regulation moved to the federal level in the 1960s. Dissatisfaction with centralized regulation has led to attempts at regulatory reform and decentralization. It is expected that these reforms will lead to greater flexibility, and responsiveness to regional differences.     

Assessment of forensic findings when alternative explanations have different likelihoods—“Blame-the-brother”-syndrome

Assessment of forensic findings with likelihood ratios is for several cases straightforward, but there are a number of situations where contemplation of the alternative explanation to the evidence needs consideration, in particular when it comes to the reporting of the evidentiary strength. The likelihood ratio approach cannot be directly applied to cases where the proposition alternative to the forwarded one is a set of multiple propositions with different likelihoods and different prior probabilities. Here we present a general framework based on the Bayes' factor as the quantitative measure of evidentiary strength from which it can be deduced whether the direct application of a likelihood ratio is reasonable or not. The framework is applied on DNA evidence in forms of an extension to previously published work. With the help of a scale of conclusions we provide a solution to the problem of communicating to the court the evidentiary strength of a DNA match when a close relative to the suspect has a non-negligible prior probability of being the source of the DNA.     

On non-invasive 2D and 3D Chromatic White Light image sensors for age determination of latent fingerprints

The feasibility of 2D-intensity and 3D-topography images from a non-invasive Chromatic White Light (CWL) sensor for the age determination of latent fingerprints is investigated. The proposed method might provide the means to solve the so far unresolved issue of determining a fingerprints age in forensics. Conducting numerous experiments for an indoor crime scene using selected surfaces, different influences on the aging of fingerprints are investigated and the resulting aging variability is determined in terms of inter-person, intra-person, inter-finger and intra-finger variation. Main influence factors are shown to be the sweat composition, temperature, humidity, wind, UV-radiation, surface type, contamination of the finger with water-containing substances, resolution and measured area size, whereas contact time, contact pressure and smearing of the print seem to be of minor importance. Such influences lead to a certain experimental variability in inter-person and intra-person variation, which is higher than the inter-finger and intra-finger variation. Comparing the aging behavior of 17 different features using 1490 time series with a total of 41,520 fingerprint images, the great potential of the CWL technique in combination with the binary pixel feature from prior work is shown. Performing three different experiments for the classification of fingerprints into the two time classes [0, 5h] and [5, 24h], a maximum classification performance of 79.29% (kappa=0.46) is achieved for a general case, which is further improved for special cases. The statistical significance of the two best-performing features (both binary pixel versions based on 2D-intensity images) is manually shown and a feature fusion is performed, highlighting the strong dependency of the features on each other. It is concluded that such method might be combined with additional capturing devices, such as microscopes or spectroscopes, to a very promising age estimation scheme.     

Advancing Cosmopolitanism through International Competition

The impact of the Olympics seems global, but is it cosmopolitan? Cosmopolitan theory needs to be expanded to include criteria for evaluating the effects of transnational non-governmental associations. Such criteria would enable cosmopolitans not merely to argue for the toleration of associations but also to consider how associations advance cosmopolitan norms and dispositions. Assessing institutional, developmental, shared identity and public sphere effects, this article uses the example of the Olympics to explore what it would mean for an association's effects to be cosmopolitan. Establishing standardised international rules and shared global norms such as fair play are cosmopolitan aspects of the Olympic movement. These shared rules and practices lead to transnational communities among elite athletes, sports administrators and even audiences. The nationalistic aspects of the Olympic Games keep this association a partial expression of cosmopolitanism. Partial expressions of cosmopolitanism, however, have the potential indirectly to advance cosmopolitan norms among those who do not necessarily embrace cosmopolitanism. The Olympics demonstrates that to advance cosmopolitanism requires more than a declared cosmopolitan purpose.     

Building Consensual Institutions: Networks and the National Estuary Program

Currently, many approaches to solving policy problems seek to create community-based, less coercive solutions that are creating the conditions for the birth of new regional governmental institutions. We argue that networks form the core of these emergent structures and that federal programs can play a positive role in developing local networks. Our empirical work compares networks in estuaries included in National Estuary Program with networks in comparable estuaries that were not. We find that the networks in NEP areas span more levels of government, integrate more experts into policy discussions, nurture stronger interpersonal ties between stakeholders, and create greater faith in the procedural fairness of local policy, thus laying the foundation for a new form of cooperative governance.     

Leaking,leak prevention,and decoupling in public administrations: the case of the European Commission

Abstract

The European Commission is frequently faced with leaks, much like other public administrations in Western democracies. While executive leaders often criticise the practice of leaking as an unwanted breach of confidentiality and secrecy, leak prevention is usually not taken seriously compared to the scale of the phenomenon. This article discusses leaking and leak prevention more broadly and analyses the efforts of the European Commission to prevent leaks. It finds that leaking and leak prevention were regularly discussed at the highest level of the EU’s executive between 2006 and 2015. However, few Commission officials have been sanctioned for leaking in that period, and mostly for leaks that appear unrelated to the substance of those discussed at the political level. This mismatch is explained by a decoupling of talk and action regarding leak prevention, allowing the European Commission and other public administrations to manage inconsistencies in competing internal and external demands for openness and confidentiality.