Gallup Polling Accuracy in a Multi-Party Context: An Empirical Study of Twelve Danish Political Parties 1957-80*

This article examines the accuracy of the Gallup poll in a situation involving multiple political parties of different sizes Using data collected by the Danish Gallup Institute 1957–1980. the article demonstrates that polling results, except those of small parties, are well within the sampling error. An explorative analysis of the data, showing that there is a normal distribution of the differences between election results and polling values, provides the possibility of a simple method of interpreting Gallup poll data at a desirable level of confidence.     

Fatal motorcycle accidents and alcohol

A series of fatal motorcycle accidents from a 7-year period (1977-1983) has been analyzed. Of the fatalities 30 were operators of the motorcycle, 11 pillion passengers and 8 counterparts. Of 41 operators 37% were sober at the time of accident, 66% had measurable blood alcohol concentration (BAC); 59% above 0.08%. In all cases where a pillion passenger was killed, the operator of the motorcycle had a BAC greater than 0.08%. Of the killed counterparts 2 were non-intoxicated, 2 had a BAC greater than 0.08%, and 4 were not tested. The results advocate that the law should restrict alcohol consumption by pillion passengers as well as by the motorcycle operator. Suggestions made to extend the data base needed for developing appropriate alcohol countermeasures by collecting sociodemographic data on drivers killed or seriously injured should be supported.     

The role of religion in Islamist radicalisation processes

ABSTRACT

This article attempts to bridge the gap between social and religious explanations for Islamist radicalisation in the West by understanding the role of religion through the under-utilised perspective of sociology of religious emotions and Wiktorowicz’s concept of cognitive openness. The article draws on interviews with 23 different actors with first-hand knowledge of Islamist radicalisation, and analyses five in-depth interviews with former so-called radicals, four of whom were converts to Islam. The analysis thus has a special focus on the narratives and experiences of converts to radical Islamist worldviews. The radicalisation process of the formers was characterised by an interplay between context specific experiences and individual religiosity. There are social causes for seeking religion as it can provide an emotional meaningfulness in a state of cognitive openness connected to personal family social background, which can stretch over a long period. However, the interviews also show that religiosity affects the social: the religious emotions within radical Islamist groups create a tight-knit community of self-perceived righteous believers, tied to an emotional experience of empowerment that amplifies their radicalisation. The article concludes that the primary role of religion is to structure and direct the emotions from which so-called radical Islamists think and act within religious frameworks.     

Talking about radicalization

ABSTRACT

This article seeks to build a bridge between the criminological tradition of research on hard-to-reach groups and sensitive topics and the tradition of critical research on radicalization. As a result of the hard-to-reach character of so-called radicals themselves, the article analyzes interview experiences with ‘professionals’ working within the prevention of radicalization and other actors. This article discusses the experiences connected to the preparation and unfolding of the interviews on the sensitive topic of radicalization and illustrates how interviews and questions designed to gather knowledge about radicalization processes among Muslims in Denmark often became a discussion about the concept of radicalization itself. This article shows that making use of the concept of radicalization is problematic in interviews as it is embedded in the Danish political discourse on immigration, Muslims and Islam. This article reflects on researcher positionality and how being a white ethnic Danish researcher might have caused an underestimation of how problematic the concept is to people directly involved with it, and that speaking from such a researcher positionality also can make the concept of radicalization seem even more problematic.     

Empirical Evaluation of the Reliability of Photogrammetry Software in the Recovery of Three-Dimensional Footwear Impressions

This paper examines the reliability of Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry as a tool in the capture of forensic footwear marks. This is applicable to photogrammetry freeware DigTrace but is equally relevant to other SfM solutions. SfM simply requires a digital camera, a scale bar, and a selection of oblique photographs of the trace in question taken at the scene. The output is a digital three-dimensional point cloud of the surface and any plastic trace thereon. The first section of this paper examines the reliability of photogrammetry to capture the same data when repeatedly used on one impression, while the second part assesses the impact of varying cameras. Using cloud to cloud comparisons that measure the distance between two-point clouds, we assess the variability between models. The results highlight how little variability is evident and therefore speak to the accuracy and consistency of such techniques in the capture of three-dimensional traces. Using this method, 3D footwear impressions can, in many substrates, be collected with a repeatability of 97% with any variation between models less than ~0.5 mm.     

Mapping Urban Revitalization: Using GIS Spatial Analysis to Evaluate a New Housing Policy

This longitudinal, multimethod study uses geographical information system (GIS) software to evaluate the community-wide impact of a neighborhood revitalization project. Unsystematic visual examination and analysis of GIS maps are offered as a complementary tool to quantitative analysis and one that is much more compelling, meaningful, and effective in presentation to community and nonscientific professional audiences. The centerpiece of the intervention was the development of a new, middle-class housing subdivision in an area that was declining physically and economically. This represents three major urban/housing policy directions: (1) the emphasis on home ownership for working-class families, (2) the deconcentration of poverty through development of mixed-income neighborhoods, and (3) the clean up and redevelopment of contaminated, former industrial brownfields. Resident survey responses, objective environmental assessment observations, and building permit data were collected, geocoded at the address level, and aggregated to the block level on 60 street blocks in the older neighborhoods surrounding the new housing in two waves: during site clearing and housing construction (Time 1: 1993–95) and three years post-completion (Time 2: 1998–99). Variables mapped include (a) Time 1–2 change in self-reported home repairs and improvements, (b) change in the assessed physical condition of yards and exteriors of 925 individual residential properties, (c) change in residents' home pride, and (d) a city archive of building permits at Time 2. Physical conditions improved overall in the neighborhood, but spatial analysis of the maps suggest that the spillover effects, if any, of the new housing were geographically limited and included unintended negative psychological consequences. Results argue for greater use of GIS and the street block level in community research and of psychological and behavioral variables in planning research and decisions.     

Gait analysis in forensic medicine*

Recordings from video surveillance systems are used as evidence from crime scenes. It would be useful to perform comparisons between disguised perpetrators and suspects based on their gait. We applied functional anatomical and biomechanical knowledge to analyze the gait of perpetrators, as recorded on surveillance video. Using a structured checklist, which addresses the single body segments during gait, we were able to give a statement concerning the gait patterns. Characteristic parameters were, e.g., varus instability in the knee at heel strike, and larger lateral flexion of the spinal column to one side than the other. Based on these characteristic features, we are able to state with reasonable certainty whether the suspect could be the perpetrator, but it is not possible to identify the perpetrator positively. Nevertheless, we have been involved in several cases where the court has found that this type of gait analysis was a valuable tool.