Exchange rate, inflation and unemployment in East European economies: the case of Poland and Hungary*

The aim of the paper is to model the impact of exchange rate on both inflation and unemployment variables in economies which are characterized by important structural changes, i.e. a transition phase moving from centralized economies towards market economies. This phenomenon, which is common to the East European countries, stressed different effects both for what concerns the behaviour of economic agents and for what concerns fiscal and monetary measures adopted by governments and aiming to keep under control the inflation–unemployment trade off. Time series relationships between these variables are investigated within an econometric model. Economic theory and the available data on the hypothetically relevant variables, along with the consideration of the main facts occurred in the period under study, characterize our information set. It is found that single equation analysis yields inefficient inference relative to the whole system analysis, and important structural changes are detected which reflect possible breaks in the structure of the economic system along with a change in economic policy.     

Role of preoperative 3-dimensional computed tomography reconstruction in depressed skull fractures treated with craniectomy: a case report of forensic interest

Patients affected by cranial trauma with depressed skull fractures and increased intracranial pressure generally undergo neurosurgical intervention. Because craniotomy and craniectomy remove skull fragments and generate new fracture lines, they complicate forensic examination and sometimes prevent a clear identification of skull fracture etiology. A 3-dimensional reconstruction based on preoperative computed tomography (CT) scans, giving a picture of the injuries before surgical intervention, can help the forensic examiner in identifying skull fracture origin and the means of production.We report the case of a 41-year-old-man presenting at the emergency department with a depressed skull fracture at the vertex and bilateral subdural hemorrhage. The patient underwent 2 neurosurgical interventions (craniotomy and craniectomy) but died after 40 days of hospitalization in an intensive care unit. At autopsy, the absence of various bone fragments did not allow us to establish if the skull had been stricken by a blunt object or had hit the ground with high kinetic energy. To analyze bone injuries before craniectomy, a 3-dimensional CT reconstruction based on preoperative scans was performed. A comparative analysis between autoptic and radiological data allowed us to differentiate surgical from traumatic injuries. Moreover, based on the shape and size of the depressed skull fracture (measured from the CT reformations), we inferred that the man had been stricken by a cylindric blunt object with a diameter of about 3 cm.     

Machinery‐Related Deaths: Relevance of Workplace Investigation and Antemortem Radiological Data in Reconstructing the Fatality

Abstract: Machinery‐related fatalities are one of the leading causes of traumatic occupational deaths. In our report, we present the case of a 40‐year‐old male who suffered a severe head trauma while working in a cut‐foam industry and died despite an early craniectomy. The radiological reconstruction of the skull based on preoperative computed tomography scans disclosed a large depressed conical fracture of the left parietal bone. The 3D‐reconstruction of the work area, combined with a fit‐matching analysis between the machinery and the depressed skull fracture allowed us to conclude that the head was crushed between the sliding bar of the cutting device and the metallic protuberance on the opposite side. The case underlines the importance of a detailed workplace investigation and of a thorough evaluation of all circumstantial, clinical, radiological, and autopsy data in the reconstruction of machinery‐related fatalities to identify any possible legal responsibilities of the worker and/or the employer.     

A Criticism of the International Harm Principle

According to the received view crimes like torture, rape, enslavement or enforced prostitution are domestic crimes if they are committed as isolated or sporadic events, but become crimes against humanity when they are committed as part of a ‘widespread or systematic attack’ against a civilian population. Only in the latter case can these crimes be prosecuted by the international community. One of the most influential accounts of this idea is Larry May’s International Harm Principle, which states that crimes against humanity are those that somehow ‘harm humanity.’ I argue that this principle is unable to provide an adequate account of crimes against humanity. Moreover, I argue that the principle fails to account for the idea that crimes against humanity are necessarily group based. I conclude by suggesting that the problem with May’s account is that it relies on a harm-based conception of crime which is very popular, but ultimately mistaken. I submit that in order to develop an adequate theory of crimes against humanity we need to abandon the harm-based model and replace it with an alternative conception of crime and criminal law, one based on the notion of accountability.     

Price-wage dynamics in a transition economy: The case of Poland

In this paper we analyse the wage-price relationship of an economy in transition characterized by important structural changes. It is known (see Perron, 1989) that structural breaks in stationary time series can induce apparent unit roots. The stationarity analysis of the series employed in the present model is conducted jointly with the assumption that the breakpoint location is unknown. We follow a testing procedure recently proposed by Zivot and Andrews (1992). Cointegration analysis of wages and prices in the presence of structural breaks finds empirical evidence in favour of two cointegrating vectors involving prices and wages. Our analysis focuses on the different structural behaviour of the price-wage dynamic relationship in the short and long term; we also demonstrate the relative importance of import prices as a source of wage-price fluctuations.     

Regional trade and foreign currency regimes among the former Soviet Republics

The paper examines the problems arising from the adoption of national currencies in former Soviet Republics, and advances proposals to avoid excessive trade and output contractions. The move towards national currencies in many republics — though politically unavoidable and economically efficient in the medium term — is seen as having disruptive effects on interrepublican trade in the short term, with heavy losses of incomes and employment, which add to the costs of market transition. Mutual convertibility among the new currencies could allow some of the negative consequences on trade and production to be overcome, while in the event of mutual currently inconvertibility the effects on interrepublic trade could be disastrous and only some form of payments agreement could reduce the magnitude of the contraction. An intermediate currency regime which could sustain the level of income and employment would be based on the use of the Russian rouble as a regional means of payment. Such an event, however, would require as a pre-condition the stabilization of the Russian currency.     

Testing for Structural Change in Cointegrated Relationships: Analysis of Price–Wages Models for Poland and Hungary

In previous studies concerning short- and long-run relationships for price–wage models, the cointegration analysis has been developed assuming the existence of a unique cointegration parametrisation. These empirical results reveal the presence of significant relationships, both in the short and in the long run, among prices, wages, labour productivity and exchange rate. In this paper we intend to develop the possibility of a more general type of cointegration, allowing for a change at an unknown time period in the sample. At this end we will consider mainly the long-run relationship among these variables using the testing procedure suggested by Gregory and Hansen (1996a,b). This permits us to consider a multivariate extension of the endogenous break univariate approach and, in the meantime, this enables us to test for cointegration in the presence of possible structural breaking cointegrated relationships under the alternative. The empirical analysis of a multivariate model for price–wage relationship both for Poland and Hungary, over the period 1970–1996, is presented and discussed.     

Risk Factors of Violence against Women in Peru

Based on the results of previous investigations, this study seeks for individual, relationship and community characteristics among women living with their partner associated with intimate partner violence [IPV] victimization. The sample of 19,131 women was taken from the 2016 Peru Demographic and Health Survey. A binomial logistic regression model showed among the most significant risk factors: heavy drinking by the woman’s partner (OR = 8.655, p < .001), having witnessed parental domestic violence (OR = 1.496, p < .001) and having experienced physical punishment during childhood (OR = 1.306, p < .001). Other factors related to higher odds of IPV at the individual level include employment and low educational attainment. Relationship risk factors comprise, 25 to 29 years of relationship duration, living in cohabitation, previous unions and low socioeconomic status. At the community level, living in an urban residence increases the likelihood of abuse. These findings highlight the need to include these factors, in the IPV prevention strategies.