RISE OF THE DISLOYAL: INCREASING RESENTMENT IN NORTH KOREA

Why has loyalty to the Kim Family Regime and the Worker’s Party diminished over the past twenty years despite a rise in the average standard of living, greater social mobility, and a regime policy of benign neglect towards marketization? Unthinkable in the Kim Il Sung era, the increase in expressions of resentment toward the North Korean authorities represents a shift in the ideology, behavior, and motivation of the population. Four critical factors have heightened tensions between state and society in North Korea, leading to a reduction in loyalty among the general population. The author considers the impact of labor mobilizations, the declining importance of party membership, the influence of foreign media, and the rise of rent seeking and extractive policies. While all play a role, it is important and possible to identify the primary cause. Extractive policies and rent-seeking position the regime and the people in a directly adversarial relationship. All tiers and agencies of the government have become complicit in efforts to siphon off profits, control market actors through crony capitalism, rent seek, over-regulate, and compete against private market actors, causing the residents to express frustration and resentment towards a government that does not have their interests at heart.     

POLICIES OF LAST RESORT FOR DEALING WITH NORTH KOREA’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAMME

This paper analyzes the policy remedies for dealing with North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile programs. After six nuclear tests and three recent successful ICBM tests, North Korea is close to miniaturizing nuclear warheads and establishing a reliable delivery system, thus achieving a much-feared nuclear weapons capability. In defiance of the extraordinarily tough U.N. Security Council resolutions, Pyongyang persists in developing nuclear weapons. North Korea's nuclear weapons program already has exceeded the strategic patience, of the U.S.-ROK alliance. Harsher policy options to deal with the DPRK nuclear weapons are imperative. Several drastic options, including severe sanctions, preventive bombing, nuclear armament of South Korea, are evaluated in the final round of engagement policy on guaranteeing nonaggression and a peace agreement with Pyongyang.     

反思金大中政府的对朝政策

1998年金大中政府执政后,在总结历届政府处理和解决对朝政策的经验教训、全面分析朝鲜半岛形势和国际形势的现状和发展趋势的基础上,提出了旨在维护和促进朝鲜半岛和平稳定的对朝"和解、合作"政策.在朝韩共同努力下第一次实现了两国首脑会晤,签署了<南北共同宣言>,使南北交流与合作得到一定程度的进展,并稳定了朝鲜半岛和东北亚地区的局势.     

Globalization and regulatory change: The interplay of laws and technologies in E-commerce in Southeast Asia

Electronic commerce has brought about business and technological changes globally, and these global changes have given rise to major legal reforms across nations. In the fast-changing global digital economy, states need strategies to maintain competitiveness of their markets while simultaneously ensuring the secure and effective use of technologies involved in conducting electronic transactions. This paper examines how the use and recognition of electronic signatures are regulated in Southeast Asia – the region that has shown the most significant growth in global e-commerce in past few years. Based on a comparative analysis of the laws of four representative ASEAN member states – namely Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam, this paper argues that there is a regional trend towards adopting more liberal and technology-neutral standards for electronic signatures. Electronic signature regulation in Southeast Asia is now built upon limited technological neutrality (or the so-called “two-tiered” approach) as a shared regulatory understanding, but this approach is operationalized differently in each state due to distinctive national contexts. Within the common legal framework, each state has developed its own system of control and management with respect to higher-level signatures (using advanced technologies). The principle of technological neutrality, a concept originally developed for the regulation of technologies in response to the liberalization of telecommunications market, has been the central theme of discussions on the e-transactions policy-making scene. As the author shows, in the process through which states localize the global standards of technological neutrality, ASEAN as a vehicle of regulatory change has played an essential role in translating this principle to the national context.     

金正恩时代起航及其展望

自2011年末金正日病逝至今,金正恩接掌朝鲜政权时间已过半年。在这半年时间里,朝鲜政局基本稳定,金正恩通过"三步曲"接掌朝鲜最高权力,并开始履行国家最高领导权;外交方面,金正恩也展现出比以前更加积极的姿态,呈现出远交近攻之特点;经济发展方面,朝鲜已进入缓慢的复苏之中。总的来说,现今朝鲜的国情远比金正日时代开启之初的情况好得多。执政半年里金正恩处变不惊,措施得当:行孝道以取民心;造时势以立英雄;承祖训以示正统。当前,朝鲜已来到一个十字路口:朝鲜想怎么走,应该怎么走,能怎么走,引人关注。笔者认为,金正恩政权的使命是注重发展,解决民生问题;对其未来发展,给出了三阶段时间表与路线图予以描绘。     

North Korea's juche ideology: indigenous communism or traditional thought?

ABSTRACT

This article examines the content of North Korea's juche ideology by analyzing official texts in comparison with Confucian classics and new religious movements in South Korea. The comparison revealed a series of similarities that vividly demonstrate that juche ideas have absorbed core elements of Korean and East Asian philosophical traditions.     

EVOLVING TOWARD NORMALCY AMID ANOMALY: NORTH KOREA’S MIDDLE EAST POLICY SINCE THE DEMISE OF KIM IL-SUNG

North Korea's engagement in the Middle East is a six-decade long narrative. Neither the DPRK nor its Middle Eastern partners have remained still over this time; each region has undergone significant changes. In particular, the leadership of the North Korea is now in the hands of the third generation. No matter how stagnant and monolithic the country may seem at first sight, each generation has had to deal with differing commitments and adapt to changing realities. As such, each generational change of leadership in Pyongyang has arguably had repercussions on the DPRK's relationship Middle Eastern partners, which may at times have been misattributed to a fundamental change of approach. This study attempts, therefore, to probe the twists and turns in the DPRK's interactions with the Middle East since the death of Kim Il-sung, beginning with an appraisal of each leaderships’ priorities in North Korea, and how they could potentially influence Pyongyang's overall orientation toward its different partners in the region.     

MAO’S ROLE IN THE KOREAN CONFLICT: A REVISION

Abstract

In October 1950, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was only one year old, and the Beijing regime faced daunting tasks of regime consolidation and economic reconstruction. Thus, the CIA consistently predicted that China would not enter the Korean War, even if the United States crossed the 38th parallel. Acting on the CIA’s prediction, US forces invaded North Korea on October 8, 1950. China proved the CIA’s analysis wrong by sending masses of troops into Korea late in October, pushing the US force back south of the 38th parallel before the end of 1950. This article uncovers historical evidence to revise the existing literature on the topic of the Chinese intervention in Korea. Why did China intervene despite all the odds against Beijing? This study demonstrates the historical role of “agents,” that is, individual with various personal attributes. By using newly available sources from China and Russia as well as a new interpretation, this article breaks new ground on a significant topic in the fields of international relations and the Cold War international history.     

金正恩时代的朝鲜和图们江区域的中俄朝合作

朝鲜的稳定发展和朝鲜半岛的无核化,符合我国利益。西方力图颠覆朝鲜政权。朝鲜政权能够生存,关键在于高层领导内部的求同存异、精诚团结,并得益于有效地强化政治教育、对西方渗透的严防死守。金正恩成为领袖,将集全权于一身,独自领导朝鲜。朝鲜的经济体制正在发生变化,"中产阶级"的代表已经出现,原始的资本主义方式成为许多朝鲜人谋生的手段。金正恩需要改变朝鲜的贫穷状况,让人民富裕,出现了改革的舆论和迹象。近年,中俄两国均积极采取措施帮助朝鲜改善管理制度、培育造血功能。中朝共同开发、共同管理罗先区和黄金坪、威化岛,俄罗斯推出俄朝韩三方合作新模式。目前朝鲜投资风险大,预期回报率低。建议中俄应排除干扰,求同存异,积极探索互相配合、分担和分摊风险、减轻负担,有利各方的合作途径。充分发挥中国政府的图们江开发战略和中俄两国元首签署的区域合作规划战略的作用,进一步深入开展合作。     

Defection of North Korea's ideologist a sign of regime crisis

Abstract

The defection of Hwang Jang‐yop, one of North Korea's major ideological authorities and a senior member of the leadership, is a clear indication of regime crisis in Pyongyang. Hwang's assessment of the nature of the Kim Jong‐il regime, which he regards as incapable of reform and committed to war with South Korea, will strengthen those in Seoul who argue for a tough approach to be taken in negotiations on security issues with North Korea. At the same time, his remarks on the extent of communist influence in South Korean politics may influence the outcome of the 1997 presidential elections.