困境与协调:探析中俄能源合作的博弈——以俄远东输油项目为例

2009年2月17日,被称为"贷款换石油"的中俄大型输油项目终于敲定.这标志着两国间长达15年的石油博弈终于突破了重重困境,有了一个较为完满的结局.回首中俄两国15年间围绕远东石油资源所进行的一系列博弈,每一轮谈判都是一场事关国家利益的针锋相对,每一份协议的签订都体现了双方寻求双赢的妥协.本文将从博弈论的视角,以俄远东输油项目为例,从输油管线之争及石油定价机制谈判等几个方面,对中俄能源合作进行系统的梳理,提炼双方博弈策略的精髓,发掘竞争背后蕴藏的合作因素.并以此为依据,提出今后中俄能源合作的走向依旧是"博弈-困境-协调"模式.     

中国中亚能源通道与中国能源安全

中国的改革开放带来国民经济的快速发展,同时也带来对能源,尤其是石油和天然气资源的巨大需求。中亚及其相邻的里海地区有着丰富的石油天然气资源。毗邻的地理位置为中国与中亚国家能源合作创造了得天独厚的条件。当前中国与中亚地区已经修建了多条石油和天然气管道。这些管道有助于保障中国能源供应,但也面临一系列新的问题和压力。中国中亚能源通道的未来前景广阔,但需要提前做好风险研判与科学规划。     

ECONOMY

正End of the Travel RushPassengers head to boarding platforms at the Yinchuan Railway Station in northwest China’s Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region on February 24.That day marked the end of the 40-day Spring Festival travel rush,which saw 3.32 billion trips.     

Saved By the Bell: Reclaiming Home Court Advantage for At‐Risk Youth Funneled into the School‐to‐Prison Pipeline

Far too often, minority students are faced with punitive disciplinary actions and are consequently directed to the “school‐to‐prison” pipeline. From education to discipline, implementation of policies that criminalize minor delinquent behavior pushes these students out of school and into the juvenile justice system. Traditional disciplinary actions that would land students in the principal's office have gradually transformed to students being handcuffed and thrown in jail. This Note proposes a model statute requiring states with a high criminal delinquency rate to implement school‐based youth courts in public high schools.     

俄罗斯亚太能源战略评析——基于远东油气管道项目的视角

俄罗斯远东地区油气储量巨大,21世纪初,俄罗斯能源战略明确提出开发东西伯利亚和远东油气资源、加快能源基础设施建设的倡议,并将亚太地区作为未来俄罗斯油气出口地理结构多元化的优先发展方向。"西伯利亚力量"天然气管道和"东西伯利亚—太平洋"石油管道是俄罗斯通往亚太地区的两大油气运输基础设施项目,2019年底这两大项目草案均取得了重要进展。随着远东油气管道的建设与开通,中俄能源关系日益密切,双方都致力于从能源关系多样化的角度构筑有利于彼此的能源安全体系,有望结成利益与共的能源命运共同体。同时,俄罗斯也在积极发展与亚太其他国家的能源关系,推动建立亚太能源安全体系。鉴于俄罗斯向亚太市场供应能力的持续增强,将促使原有的区域能源供需关系和国际能源格局发生改变。然而,资金、消费市场、地缘安全环境等不确定因素对俄罗斯亚太能源战略的未来走势形成制约。为此,在当前全球能源生产呈多中心化趋势、能源需求重心东移的背景下,亟须建立行之有效的亚太多边能源对话与合作机制,搭建起亚洲能源生产和消费的共享平台,逐步实现能源基础设施的互联互通以共同防范外部冲击、避免无序竞争,增强区域整体的能源实力。     

Energy in Northeast Asia: Resources for Conflict or Cooperation? An Introduction

Although Northeast Asia typically is seen as an arena for conflict over energy supplies, complementary economic relationships would seem to make the region ripe for energy cooperation: Russia possesses major oil and gas resources, while China, Japan, South and North Korea all depend on imported energy. The four papers in this issue raise a number of important and, at times, neglected issues about the prospects for energy cooperation in Northeast Asia. While focusing on specific projects for energy supply and conservation, the authors implicitly raise broader theoretical questions about the prospects for and consequences of regional energy cooperation.

中缅石油管道设计中的美印因素

中国的石油绝大多数从中东和非洲进口.鉴于目前马六甲海峡的形势,中国应该修建一条从缅甸西部的实兑深水港到昆明的输油管道.中国的企业和地方政府支持修建中缅石油管道计划.但是,要把这项计划变成现实,还需要克服许多障碍.     

Gault's Promise Revisited: The Search For Due Process

Fifty years ago, due process was introduced into the juvenile courts, but today children still do not have the guiding hand of counsel at every stage of the proceedings. In assessing the pre‐Gault world, Chief Justice Fortas observed that “[a] child receives the worst of both worlds:…he gets neither the protections accorded to adults nor the solicitous care and regenerative treatment postulated for children.” 1 Fortas opined that “Then as now good will and compassion were admirably prevalent. But recent studies have entered with surprising unanimity, sharp dissent to the vitality of this gentle conception. They suggest that the appearance as well as the actuality of fairness‐ impartiality and orderliness‐ in short the essentials of due process may be a more therapeutic attitude so far as the juvenile is concerned.” 2 The prescience of his observation has found resonance and reinforcement with the 2013 publication of Reforming Juvenile Justice: A Developmental Approach 3 which was commissioned by the Office of Juvenile Justice Delinquency and Prevention (OJJDP). Reforming Juvenile Justice's emphasis on encouraging not only the perception but the actuality of fairness in all domains 4 connects directly to the essence of Gault's message. “Treating youth fairly and ensuring that they perceive that have been treated fairly and with dignity contribute to positive outcomes in the normal processes of social learning, moral development, and legal socialization adolescence.” 5 The research also demonstrates that public health oriented alternatives to traditional court processing promote social connection and positive youth development. 6 The OJJDP report provides a road map for promoting positive youth development and social engagement by demonstrating that supporting such policies improves public safety outcomes by reducing recidivism. In exploring whether Gault's promise of due process has been realized or is still aspirational, this article suggests that our inquiry requires us to think contextually by considering how children and families are treated in and out of the courtroom. This entails consideration of educational, child welfare and mental health services, as well as the scope of legal entitlements. Equity and fundamental fairness, euphemisms for due process, are what will truly effectuate Gault's promise and should be the benchmark for all courts and systems that engage with children.