Bushwhacking the Democratic Peace

The invasion of Iraq has been justified, ex post , as for the purpose of promoting the democratic peace. It does not, however, appear to have been a principal goal ex ante . Most democratic peace theorists, moreover, do not endorse democratic regime change by great-power external military intervention. Success is difficult to achieve (usually at high cost), and the conditions in Iraq were not promising even had the occupation been carried out more competently. Greater success in democratization has been achieved by UN peacekeeping operations, and by various regional international organizations using a variety of peaceful measures to ensure free elections, constrain authoritarian leaders, and empower democratic forces. International organizations, notably those whose membership is largely composed of democracies, are especially likely to succeed in promoting democracy.     

Can the Democrats Win Again?

After losing two successive elections, debate has raged within the Democratic party over how to win back power without comprising the principles which the party has long stood for. This article explores the reasons why the Democrats were unable to defeat George W. Bush in 2004, despite the numerous problems of the incumbent' first term, and asks what lessons the Democrats can learn from their defeat. The second half of the article focuses on what issues and policies the Democrats should concentrate and what strategies the party should adopt in order to improve its image and broaden its popular appeal ahead of the 2008 election.     

布什政府对东盟的政策及其对中国的影响

本文总结了布什执政以来美国对东盟的政策,探讨了影响美国政策的因素,分析了美国对东盟政策的调整将对中国—东盟关系产生的影响。文章认为,“9.11”事件以后,美国的反恐战争为其重返东南亚提供了契机。布什政府调整了对这一地区的政策,改善或提升了与东盟国家的关系。然而,把东盟作为一个地区机制,美国还没有完整的战略。美国主要推进的是双边关系,其中以军事关系为重。美国政策对中国的影响是复杂的,在中美关系稳定的情况下,其负面影响在短期内不会太大。     

理想主义、保守主义与布什政府的进攻性民主扩展战略

理想主义和保守主义在人类本性、世界观和历史观、意识形态、思维方式等方面存在交叉或重合,但在改造世界的方式以及对权力政治的态度等方面也存在明显的差异。由于理想主义和保守主义在理论上具有交叉,它们可以融为一体,相互促进。受新保守派的影响,布什政府的民主扩展战略成为理想主义和保守主义的混合物,既有理想主义激情,又有保守主义的态度。正是这种理念的混合使得布什政府的民主扩展战略呈现出咄咄逼人的进攻性特点。     

布什政府对台政策的回顾与展望

布什政府第一任期内的对台政策经历了从亲台、抚台向抑台的转变,呈现出不断调整、战略清晰化、军事关系强化、与对华政策反向互动等特征.未来美国对台政策将以维持台海现状为主,继续对台军售、提升美台关系,拉拢日本等盟国参与,对重大"台独"事变发生时大陆可能采取的武力解决方针进行"吓阻",但也会继续遏制"台独",支持两岸接触谈判.我们应当以新的思路改善两岸关系及与周边国家的关系,铲除美国"以台制华"着力点,分化美国"以台制华"同盟,战术上"以美制台",增强自身经济、军事实力和制度竞争力,做好应付战争的准备.     

NATO: The United States, Transformation and the War in Afghanistan

During the Bush years, NATO exhibited in stark form two trends which have long characterised its development: periodic exposure to crisis and division, and a subordination to American leadership. Despite signs of American indifference towards the alliance, talk of the Bush administration levering a break with NATO was always overstated, particularly so during its second term of office. Views of NATO after 2004 were shaped by Afghanistan giving rise, in fact, to a return to the alliance on America's part. NATO remains important to Bush's successor but on terms which are as demanding as those of his predecessors. NATO, in other words, is valued in so far as it accords with current US foreign policy priorities. The safest assumption in this regard is that Obama will continue to favour the trend towards a global NATO pursued by the Bush administration. However, retreat (or defeat) in Afghanistan could hasten a contrary trend towards a consolidating NATO with a renewed concentration on the wider Europe.     

布什政府在东南亚的三重战略及走向

布什政府在东南亚展开的一系列外交活动中，有着明晰的战略目标。它在这一地区的战略目标有3个方面：美国价值观的推行、双边关系的建立和加强、参与并影响地区进程。对上述三重战略走向分别进行阐述分析后，笔者认为，美国会继续推行它的既定战略，但是会遇到一定的阻力。     

The moral purpose of US power: neoconservatism in the age of Obama

The ‘neoconservative moment’ is widely assumed to have come and gone with the George W. Bush administration. This article argues, however, that the hope that the neoconservative chapter in US foreign policy will be definitively closed under Barack Obama's administration is unlikely to be realized in practice, owing to the continuing influence that neoconservatives are able to exercise over national debates regarding the ‘moral’ use of US power in order to shape the international environment. While the moral agenda of the ‘neocons’ is often misconceived as simply a mask for the naked pursuit of the United States' material and strategic interests, this article demonstrates that this misrepresents the rationale that underpins the neoconservative perspective. Exploring the re-articulation of morality in neoconservative thought reveals the nexus that both links the neoconservative domestic agenda for political change to its foreign policy goals and also provides a framework for understanding the ‘staying power’ that neoconservatism continues to exhibit. Although the Obama presidency is widely heralded as a repudiation of this agenda, the neoconservative conception of the United States as a moral power is deeply rooted in US foreign policy traditions and is domestically allied to traditional expressions of social conservatism, which enables neoconservative ideas to continue to resonate in US foreign policy debates.     

With friends like these: foreign policy as personal relationship

Governments are run by humans who have sympathies and moods. The study of leaders' personalities, albeit not widespread, is an important tool for foreign policy analysis. Plus, friendship is a feeling that decision-makers like to express for each other. This paper analyses the activity of Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's three times premier, who has made ‘friendship’ a central tenet of his personal foreign policy. Three cases are considered, namely, Berlusconi's relationship with George W. Bush, Tony Blair and Vladimir Putin. The paper concludes that his friendship-based foreign policy has somehow worked; but, because he decided to ignore Italy's structural constraints in the international arena, he ended up wasting opportunities and resources.     

Bush: The Sequel

This article examines the likely foreign policy initiatives of the U.S. under the leadership of George W. Bush. The new president has outlined a fairly thorough critique of America's international behavior in the 1990s. Because a leader's public statements arguably serve to persuade various audiences and to build support for policy change, the article takes Bush's words quite seriously—along with those spoken or written by his closest foreign affairs advisors. Bush intends to abandon the so-called Clinton Doctrine and deploy national missile defenses. He is critical of American policies toward China and Russia, but has not presented bold new initiatives toward those powers. Under the rubric of "compassionate conservatism," Bush may alter U.S. relations toward the Global South in some interesting ways. The president and his advisors often purport to be realists, but the article demonstrates that their own words belie this claim as they often justify policies based on ideals rather than the pursuit of power.