South Caucasus from 1918 to 1921: history and historical parallels with the contemporary era

The republics that make up the South Caucasus today gained brief independence after the fall of the Tsarist Empire, before the integration of the region into Bolshevik Russia. This period, even though short, gives interesting historical background to understand the present. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to study the South Caucasian republics from 1918 to 1921 at the regional and international levels, paying particular attention to the historical continuities with the contemporary era (since 1991). The results of the study show three main parallels between the early twentieth century (1918–1921) and the present. First, the region is still internally divided (e.g. the unresolved conflicts). Second, externally, it is torn between sometimes opposing powers (e.g. Russia and the Western powers). Finally, third, the partnerships with international or regional powers still remain asymmetrical; consequently, the need to cooperate with Russia exceeds the aspirations of the Western powers toward the South Caucasus. Based on archival research, this study contributes to the historiography of the region and gives a framework for understanding the South Caucasus in contemporary international relations.     

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the context of South Caucasus regional security issues: An Armenian perspective†

For more than a quarter-century, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been one of the most important factors influencing the political map of the South Caucasus. On 12 May 1994, Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia, and Azerbaijan signed a cease-fire agreement that ended military operations in the conflict zone and has been observed until recently. Negotiations for a peaceful settlement have been underway within the framework of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Minsk Group co-chaired by the USA, Russia, and France since 1992, but society and the elite in Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Azerbaijan remain largely unprepared for compromise. Considering the settlement process a zero-sum game, they have generally accused one another of escalating the conflict and of a lack of willingness to restore peace. Other countries and international organizations involved in the negotiations do not share a vision of the future and frequently pursue their own interests. Accordingly, the Karabakh conflict could remain unresolved for decades more. The aim of the paper is a general assessment of the current stage and dynamic of this conflict and the impact of new trends and old obstacles on the prospects for further settlement.     

An oasis of democracy in an authoritarian sea? Civil society,social, and institutional trust in Georgia

We examine whether the existence of civil society in Georgia has promoted social and institutional trust in the population. As much of the literature suggests, Georgia is different from its neighbors in that civil society development is more advanced. Does participation in civil society lead to more social and institutional trust? Using survey data from the Caucasus Barometer and the World Values Survey, we find that attitudes regarding social and institutional trust are more developed in Georgia than in its neighbors, and that activity in voluntary organizations is positively associated with social and institutional trust in Georgia.     

Majoritarian values and women’s rights: police and judicial behavior in Tajikistan and Azerbaijan

This paper analyzes judicial and police behavior in dealing with cases of family violence and divorce in Tajikistan and Azerbaijan. Police and judges deliberately violate existing legal provisions to prevent women from divorcing or filing charges against their husbands in cases of domestic violence. While the law does not recognize religious marriages in Tajikistan, judges often rule to protect women’s living space after the dissolution of such unions. Drawing on rich interview and archival data, this behavior is explained by showing that judicial and police behavior reflects their biases, which in turn are a reflection of majoritarian norms in these countries. Since current laws are derived from Soviet codes, which were never internalized by the population, police and judges bend them to fit their understanding of social justice.     

Geopolitical Priorities in Russia's Regional Policies

State regional policies are generally based either on the goal of stimulating the development of specific regions or of equalizing the level of development among the regions. The first path is generally pursued by developing states while rich states favor the second path. Russia has in the past experimented with both vectors of regional policy. Since the annexation of Crimea, a third factor has come to dominate: geopolitics. The main goal of Russia's regional policy is securing control of geopolitically significant territories. The high expense of such a policy makes it unsustainable during a period of economic retrenchment.     

‘Good neighbours or distant relatives?’ Regional identity and cooperation in the South Caucasus

Conceptualization of the South Caucasus as a distinct regional unit is a relatively new development. Notwithstanding geographic proximity, the three states of the region face different political, economic and security realities, precipitating different strategic orientations. Conflicting dynamics complicate relations between states and serve to undermine efforts, both internal and external, to establish a sense of regional identity and advance inter-state cooperation. This paper argues that the concept of a distinct ‘South Caucasus’ region is an externally generated, geographical label, which implies a certain degree of unity and positive interdependence that does not exist. The three states may be geographical neighbours, but they are not ‘good neighbours’, as the complex web of enmities that has developed over the centuries means the three states tend to look externally to ‘distant relatives’, undermining both regional cohesion and awareness.     

Russia and Caspian Oil: Moscow Loses Control

A senior specialist on the Soviet and Russian economies examines issues surrounding the prominence of Caspian Sea oil in Russian policy. Attention is devoted to the evolution of Russian policy toward ownership of seabed resources, participation in international development consortia, and the routes, construction, and ownership of pipelines connecting the Caspian to world markets. Each issue is treated as one that engages the economics, politics, and security dimensions of international relations. Alternative scenarios for the future are outlined.     

A Common Future and a Common Identity： The Transformation Process of Political and Social Identities in the South Caucasus Countries

In reflecting on the case of the South Caucasus （Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia）, one of the most popular perspectives is its lack of a common identity. The main argument is that it is a culturally diverse region with old-fashioned, ethnically exclusive nationalism. From this point of view, the process of the formation of a European identity in the region acquires particular importance. A European identity could act as a catalyst for bringing the region together. This identity could be considered as based on much more than just political orientation but fundamentally grounded in common values. This comprehensive integration in the South Caucasus can be achieved through the formulation and acceptance of a common political identity based on the political orientations of the South Caucasian States and their citizens. The main question that this study tries to answer is how people in the South Caucasian countries identify themselves in terms of a European identity. A suitable analysis is increasingly important at both the micro and the macro levels. The author examines the people＇s attitudes in the three South Caucasian states toward Western culture, states, and organizations, drawing on opinion polls conducted by the Caucasus Research Resources Center （CRRC）. The author seeks to analyze attitudes toward the West in the South Caucasus on a macro as well as on a micro level. The author seeks also to provide a much-needed analysis for decision making, based on empirical data that help understand public opinion toward the European Union （EU） in the countries of the South Caucasus, and that can contribute to the refinement of integration strategies.     

Rational or reckless? Georgia's zugzwang in the Caucasus

Although the 2008 Russian-Georgian war was a military defeat for Georgia, it has only reinforced Georgia's westward trajectory. One noteworthy difference from Georgia's pre-war policy is a new regional strategy – the North Caucasus Initiative – that seeks to create a soft power alternative to Russia's military dominance in the region. We suggest that this approach is rational rather than reckless, as some critics have claimed. It represents a carefully calculated strategy that is already benefiting Georgia and from which all concerned parties, including Russia, stand to gain. If the South and North Caucasus were more open and less divided – a direction in which this new initiative appears to point – the Caucasus could become more prosperous and more stable. That would serve Russia's long-term interest by significantly reducing the cost of subsidies to sustain and stabilize the volatile region.