A political settlements lens onto Egypt’s critical junctures and cyclic violence (2011–2014)

Abstract

While there is a copious body of literature explaining Egypt’s political trajectory post-Mubarak through the lens of democratisation and transition theory, this paper argues that by using a political settlements lens, a less linear reading of the events can be offered, which highlights several attempts through both peaceful and violent means of arriving at negotiated agreements. The paper analyses the forging of three political settlements, one informal (2011) and two formal (2012, 2013) following the demise of the Mubarak regime in Egypt and the influence of intrinsic, instrumental and resultant violence on power configurations. It argues that the formal political settlement forged in Egypt in 2013 following the ousting of President Morsi cannot be read independently of the exclusionary outcomes of the informal political settlement forged in 2011 and the demise of the Fairmont Agreement of 2012. The paper relies on empirical data, including survey and focus groups undertaken in 2013–2014, complemented with secondary literature in Arabic and English.     

论现代埃及女权运动的兴起

20世纪早期,埃及伊斯兰改革主义和民族主义推动了女权运动的兴起,伊斯兰传统文化制约着女权主义的内涵,第一代女权主义者的才智和奋斗精神,推动着埃及社会的进步.     

Human rights and Nubian mobilisation in Egypt: towards recognition of indigeneity

How are global human rights localised in authoritarian societies? How and what human rights discourses are mobilised by indigenous peoples to further their demands? Building upon original fieldwork among Nubian activists in Egypt, this article explores the complexities regarding human rights framing through a discussion of recognition of Nubian indigeneity. The article finds that the history and political experience of Egypt’s Nubians bring about diverging opinions and also limitations as to how, and what, human rights frameworks rights claimants and their supporters are to employ. It argues that Egyptian nationalism not only affects how Nubian activists mobilise in general, but also helps explain the very limited appeals to a global discourse of human rights.     

埃及违宪审查制度研究

埃及的违宪审查属于专门机关审查模式,由最高宪法法院行使违宪审查权。最高宪法法院在行使违宪审查权的过程中,创造性地吸收和运用了其他国家,尤其是美国,在宪法监督制度方面的成功经验。同时,将国际人权条约、非洲人权公约等国际人权文件所规定的人权保护条款与埃及伊斯兰的传统相结合,扩大了埃及宪法在人权保护方面的作用。     

Coups and nascent democracies: the military and Egypt's failed consolidation

Why do coups happen in some nascent democracies but not in others? To answer this question, I probe four interconnected variables in democratizing regimes: the military's ethos; the military's corporate interests; the military's perception of the new civilian ruling elite; and the correlation of force between the military and the founding democratic government. My argument is twofold: first, I maintain that ideational variables are central to shaping the military's political behaviour; and second, I argue in favour of merging insights from cultural, corporate, and structural theories to understand the consolidation, or breakdown, of nascent democracies.     

Turmoil in Egypt – 1968–2011: the status of the armed forces in citizen uprisings in Egypt

On 15 January 2011, there occurred an unprecedented event in the annals of Arab states: for the first time, the masses revolted and ousted a local ruler. The Tunisian masses took to the streets and stayed there until Zayn al-‘ābidīn bin ‘Alī stepped down, or, rather, fled the country. Ten days after Bin ‘Alī’s fall, the masses filled the thoroughfares of Egypt's major cities and demanded the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak, who had ruled Egypt for 30 years. On 12 February 2011, after 18 days of stormy protests, Vice President Omar Suleiman announced Mubarak's resignation and announced that Mubarak's powers had been transferred to him. This paper follows the Egyptian saga in the context of the new phenomenon taking place across the Arab world – citizen revolts. It does not address the protests by Islamic opposition groups, especially the Muslim Brotherhood; instead, it offers case studies in social, economic, and ideological (one might even say, secular) contexts, not religious ones. It surveys the recent epoch-making events in the Nile region and compares them with violent demonstrations and riots in its past. The paper's importance lies in its examination of the role of the armed forces in each case and primarily in its investigation of the assertion that the broad-based uprisings seem to have written finis to the military's pivotal role in Arab states.     

Conclusion: agency,context and emergent post-uprising regimes

This conclusion summarizes the evidence explaining the divergent trajectories taken by post Arab uprising states in terms of multiple variables, each illustrated by an iconic case, namely: State Failure and Competitive governance (Syria), Regime Restoration and Hybrid Governance (Egypt) and Polyarchic Governance (Tunisia). Factors include the starting point: levels of opposition mobilization and regimes' resilience – a function of their patrimonial-bureaucratic balance; whether or not a transition coalition forms is crucial for democratization prospects. Context also matters for democratization, particularly political economic factors, such as a balance of class power and a productive economy; political culture (level of societal identity cleavages) and a minimum of international intervention. Finally, the balance of agency between democracy movements, Islamists, the military and workers shapes democratization prospects.     

Defending the Egyptian nation: national unity and Muslim attitudes toward the Coptic minority

This article discusses the Muslim discourse concerning the Coptic Christian minority since the 2000s in Egypt. Emphasizing the effects of the January 2011 uprising, the paper analyzes the role of nationalism and the national unity discourse in suppressing the debate regarding discrimination against the Copts. Despite the fissures that were created in the discourse, which rejects any reference to discrimination against the Copts, the Coptic issue remains trapped among the contested interpretations of national unity. All narratives of national unity and Egyptian essence, whether the official one pursued by the regime or the one promoted by pro-democracy activists, require the Copts to suppress their demand for rights for the sake of national unity. Adherence to the national unity discourse by all forces precludes the possibility of developing a form of nationalism or a national culture which embodies pluralism of identities and cultures and reinforces the role of nationalism as a tool for stifling pluralism and democracy for all Egyptians, whether Muslim majority or minorities.     

Crafting a business Umma? transnational networks of ‘Islamic businessmen’ after the Arab Spring

This article focuses on the transnational project, led by Turkish Independent Industrialists and Businessmen Association (Müsiad), of crafting a community of Islamic businessmen. The Arab Springs opened new opportunities to further this project, especially in Tunisia and Egypt where Islamist groups rose to power after 2011. In both countries, Müsiad supported the creation of two Islamic business associations, exporting its own organizational model. Examining this circulation process, we question the classical dichotomy between economic and advocacy transnational networks. We also show how this transnational activism is constrained by divergent domestic patterns of relationships between Islamists, business and states in each country.     

Reappraising the French role in nineteenth-century Egyptian education

This article explores the origins of French influence in Egyptian education by examining the circumstances under which Muhammad Ali Pasha (r. 1805–1848) sent two organized student missions to study in Paris over other European destinations. In the history of modern Egyptian education, French influence on educational institutions is linked to persistent French imperial interest following their occupation of Egypt (1798–1801). French involvement in education was not initially a government project, but rather evolved to become a government project by the end of the Pasha's rule. Using historical evidence, I show that the first mission was a personal venture of ex-Bonapartists who desired to keep the spirit of the Napoleonic expedition alive through informal cultural imperialism despite the Restoration government's disinterest. The French government's official involvement in the second student mission of 1844 was motivated by their colonial interests in North Africa. Previous historians have projected those motivations backwards on the earlier period and that Egyptian choice to make use of French expertise and knowledge was a contingent one.