Can We Make Accurate Long-term Predictions About Patterns of De-escalation in Offending Behavior?

This study consists of a comparative analysis of patterns of de-escalation between ages 17–18 and 32, based on data from two well-known prospective longitudinal studies, the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (a study of 411 working-class males in London) and the Montreal Two Samples Longitudinal Study (a sample of 470 adjudicated French-Canadian males). Analyses focus on within-individual change, with individuals serving as their own controls. In this regard, the magnitude of measured change is relative to the past degree of involvement in offending. These results are contrasted with predictors of between-individual differences in offending behavior at age 32. We investigate the respective roles of cognitive predispositions and social bonds in the prediction of patterns of de-escalation, and assess whether it is possible to make relatively long-term predictions (over a 15-year period) about offending in adulthood. Findings suggest that traditional measures of social bonds and cognitive predispositions measured at age 17–18 are generally weak predictors of de-escalation up to age 32. However, these measures are stronger predictors of between-individual differences in offending gravity. These findings highlight the difficulties in making accurate long-term predictions about changes in individual offending patterns early in the criminal career.

Factors associated with desistance from violence in prison: an exploratory study

Desistance from crime has been of increasing interest within criminal justice literature, but desistance from offending behaviour whilst in custodial environments has not yet been investigated. Violence within prison establishments continues to be a significant problem; therefore, this study investigated the factors that are associated with desistance from custodial violence in 63 UK Category C adult male prisoners with a record of violence in prison. Participants completed measures of eight social and subjective factors associated with desistance in community samples. Those who had desisted from prison violence for 12 months or more showed greater levels of pro-social attitudes, agency and resilience than those who persisted in violence. Agency independently predicted desistance and this was particularly the case for younger offenders. Internal shifts appeared to be supported by a positive work environment. It is concluded that in custody an internal shift in perspective is especially important for desistance, and that this can be supported by the social environment. Opportunities to intervene may be greater in younger prisoners. It is recommended that current initiatives in developing agency and positive social interaction, such as Psychologically Informed Planned Environments, are further developed.     

Ex-Pirates in Somalia: Processes of Engagement,Disengagement, and Reintegration

This study addresses how and why individuals in Somalia get involved in piracy activities, and how and why some of these individuals eventually disengage from such criminal groups. Based on qualitative interviews with 16 ex-pirates and pirate associates and a number of other locals and experts, the study provides first-hand insights into some of the conditions, circumstances, and processes which may serve to discourage involvement and continued engagement in piracy. Furthermore, it analyses factors and circumstances which may encourage and facilitate disengagement from these criminal activities and reintegration into non-criminal economic activities and social relationships. The lack of employment and livelihood motivated individuals to engage in piracy. However, disappointment about the lack of expected profit, coupled with the prospect of a licit income, influenced some to end their piracy involvement. Another important factor was the strong statements by local Muslim leaders that piracy was haram (forbidden). This was often reinforced by family and community objections to their involvement in piracy. Family members also played important roles in facilitating their disengagement. The ‘Alternative Livelihood to Piracy’ project played a positive role in facilitating disengagement from piracy, working closely with local religious leaders and the communities.     

Desistance and dynamic risk factors belong together

ABSTRACT

Depending on definitions, dynamic risk factors and desistance are either highly intertwined or aligned with distinctly separate paradigms. This paper describes and critiques each concept, and then reviews research on how they may be linked, including some preliminary findings from a longitudinal study of the early phases of desistance in high-risk offenders. I argue that seeking to understand how reductions in dynamic risk work together with the development of the psychological components of desistance will shed the most light on how offenders move from persistence to the maintenance of desistance.     

Pygmalion in the reintegration process: Desistance from crime through the looking glass

The study of desistance from crime has come of age in recent years, and there are now several, competing theories to account for the ability of long-term offenders to abstain from criminal behavior. Most prominently, recent explanations have borrowed elements from informal social control theory, differential association theory and cognitive psychology. In the following, we argue that labeling theory may be a neglected factor in understanding the desistance process. Drawing on interview data collected as part of a study of an offender reintegration program, we illustrate how the idea of the “looking-glass self-concept” and others is a useful metaphor in understanding the process of rehabilitation or recovery in treatment programs.     

Youth offending and youth transitions: the power of capital in influencing change

Neither the literature on offending nor that on desistance adequately explains the short-term nature of youth offending, young people’s propensity to desist from offending as they reach early adulthood and the importance of youth transitions in helping or hindering young people’s access to legitimate and conventional opportunities and responsibilities. It is suggested in this article that the three phases of offending—onset, maintenance and desistance—run parallel courses with the three phases of youth transitions—childhood, youth and adulthood and that both these processes are influenced by discrepancies in levels of capital for young people at each stage. In a recent Scottish study of desistance, Bourdieu’s concepts of capital are used to demonstrate the commonalities between youth offending and youth transitions and to better understand young people’s search for integration and recognition—whether this be through offending or conventionality. The article concludes that the concepts of capital and youth transitions could both be employed more usefully in the field of criminology to explain the transient nature of offending in youth and the greater likelihood of desistance once legitimate and sustainable opportunities are found to spend as well as to accumulate capital in early adulthood.

Measuring Long Term Individual Trajectories of Offending Using Multiple Methods

Criminal career researchers and developmental criminologists have identified describing individual trajectories of offending over time as a key research question. In response, recently various statistical methods have been developed and used to describe individual offending patterns over the life-course. Two approaches that are prominent in the current literature are standard growth curve modeling (GCM) and group-based trajectory models (GTM). The goal of this paper is to explore ways in which these different models with different sets of assumptions, do in fact lead to different outcomes on individual trajectories. Using a particularly rich dataset, the criminal career and life-course study, we estimate a unique trajectory for each individual in the sample using the GCM and GTM. We also estimate separate trajectories for each individual directly using the long time series. We then compare these three separate trajectories for each individual. We find that the average trajectories obtained from the different approaches match each other. However, for any given individual, these approaches tell very different stories. For example, each method identifies a rather different set of individuals as desistors. This comparison highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each approach, and more broadly, it reveals the uncertainty involved with measuring long term patterns of change in latent propensity to commit crimes.

Desistance or Displacement? The Changing Patterns of Offending from Adolescence to Young Adulthood

Research has devoted substantial attention to patterns of offending during the transition to early adulthood. While changes in offending rates are extensively researched, considerably less attention is devoted to shifts in the type of offending displayed during the transition to adulthood. Changes in the type of offending behavior suggest a pattern of “displacement” or shifts between various types of crime, rather than desistance from deviant behavior. In this paper, I integrate methods previously developed in stratification research and use longitudinal data from the National Survey of Youth that span the transition to adulthood to examine the extent to which desistance and displacement of deviant behavior are defining attributes of offending during the transition to early adulthood. The findings indicate that while desistance is clearly present, altering patterns of offending, or within-person displacement, rather than termination of illicit activity is most evident in the data.