祖孙双单亲比对的匹配概率研究

目的推导祖孙双单亲比对的匹配概率(PMGDS)公式,并以随机模拟法进行验证。方法首先,根据定义推导PMGDS的数学公式,依据此公式在19个基因座上计算PMGDS的数值。其次,以随机模拟法设计实验,在19个基因座上计算PMGDS的模拟值。最后,以模拟值对比公式值的方式,对公式进行实验验证。结果研究获得了PMGDS的数学公式,经模拟实验验证显示出良好的符合。结论祖孙双单亲比对的错判概率较低,具有很好的应用价值。     

DNA commission of the International Society of Forensic Genetics: Recommendations on the interpretation of mixtures

The DNA commission of the International Society of Forensic Genetics (ISFG) was convened at the 21st congress of the International Society for Forensic Genetics held between 13 and 17 September in the Azores, Portugal. The purpose of the group was to agree on guidelines to encourage best practice that can be universally applied to assist with mixture interpretation. In addition the commission was tasked to provide guidance on low copy number (LCN) reporting. Our discussions have highlighted a significant need for continuing education and research into this area. We have attempted to present a consensus from experts but to be practical we do not claim to have conveyed a clear vision in every respect in this difficult subject. For this reason, we propose to allow a period of time for feedback and reflection by the scientific community. Then the DNA commission will meet again to consider further recommendations.     

指纹鉴定标准及鉴定结论概率化研究

指纹鉴定标准是指纹鉴定理论的核心内容之一.指纹鉴定理论和实践中形成的最低特征数量标准、质量—数量标准、面积—质量量化标准、拓扑学方法和标准、形态学方法和标准等均有其局限性.运用统计学理论和贝叶斯定理建立指纹鉴定结论概率化方法和评价标准,不仅在理论和实践上具有必要性和可行性,而且也可以避免指纹鉴定标准之争,使指纹鉴定从经验走向科学.通过统计每枚指纹平均细节特征数量和每类特征的出现率,可以计算出两枚指纹匹配的概率值,进而对概率结论的可靠性作出分析评断.     

从经验到法则:经验在事实认定过程中的引入与规制

从事实认定制度发展的历程来看,经验法则是为将经验引入事实认定过程中并对其加以有效控制的一种独特机制.这种机制在大陆法系和英美法系有着不同的表述形式和内在制约机制.在我国,经验法则和法律推定是将经验引入事实认定过程的两种不同机制,它们在立法和司法实践中都存在某种程度的失控状态.这种失控状态的产生源于其内在制约机制的缺陷....     

论期待可能性在公安行政执法中的借鉴意义——以出租车罢运事件处置为例

借用刑法学中的期待可能性理论分析出租车罢运事件发生的期待不可能性根源．因此公安机关在处理类似事件的行政执法活动中不可简单粗暴，而应借鉴期待可能性理论中的人道原则、谦抑原则、情法交融精神规范执法行为，确立人权保障思想，体现人道主义关怀，确立比例原则，追求执法入情入理，实现法律效果和社会效果的统一。     

Further notes on information,corruption, and optimal law enforcement

We consider two important notes on optimal law enforcement with corruption. First, we analyze the role of asymmetric information on the emergence of collusion between criminals and enforcers. Second, our paper proposes that the optimal criminal sanction for the underlying offense is not necessarily maximal. We achieve this result by coupling the criminal sanction for the underlying offense with a criminal sanction for corruption, both imposed on offenders. A higher criminal sanction for the underlying offense implies that the government must spend more resources to detect and punish corruption (since the likelihood of collusion increases). Thus, the government could reduce this sanction, save on detection, and increase the criminal sanction for corruption (in order to offset the negative effect on deterrence). We are grateful to Mitch Polinsky and two anonymous referees for helpful suggestions. The usual disclaimers apply.     

论民事诉讼中的经验法则

由于立法的语焉不详,实践中法官对待经验法则的态度呈哑铃型的极端:避用和强用。鉴于经验法则在认定事实和适用法律上的独特价值,我们认为极端型适用模式并不可取,构建并完善该制度及其配套机制以充分发挥其功效才是司法者应有的态度,本文以司法实践中部分典型民商事案件为视角,缕析了经验法则的适用现状、困境,解构了经验法则的属性、局限,建构了合理适用经验法则所应遵循的基本原则和保障程序。     

法证科学领域的决策

随着法证DNA证据以及它所适用的概率模型日益凸显,反映了传统法证科学的局限性,并使人们对法证科学领域的决策产生了越来越多的质疑,焦点集中在对结论的解读方式和实际运用。分析表明,科学证据的本质不是绝对性或确定性的,而是概率性的;同时,事实审判者需要基于这些概率性的证据对事实作出明确的决定。因此,对于法证科学领域的决策,应当是专家在一系列归纳得出的特定假设基础上,就研究结果的概率进行恰当的报告,由事实审判者承担对概率作出决断的任务。     

期待可能性理论人性视角探微

刑法是以规制人的行为作为其内容的。任何一种刑法理论,只有建立在对人性的科学假设的基础之上,其存在与适用才具有本质上的合理性。