Crises and unpredictability in developing countries

Developing countries have suffered most of the financial crises in the context of the process of economic and financial globalisation. Both current and previous crises have revealed that unpredictability is a feature common to all the episodes which occurred during the process of globalisation. Although certain alarms went off, any of those external financial crises were actually predicted by the advanced methods in use for prediction and country risk analysis. Taking into consideration the information above, the aim of this paper is to check the ability to foresee external financial crises in developing countries of both the country risk index published by Euromoney and the Credit Ratings variable included therein. We have focused on the external financial crises that took place between 1992 and 2011, that is, in a full globalisation era. The results are negative. It appears that neither the index nor the sovereign ratings are able to reflect early enough the vulnerabilities that arise previously to the setting off the crisis episodes. This leads us to conclude that the existing models of country risk have limits. Thus, it would necessary to develop new instruments to measure this risk, considering uncertainty as an essential feature of the current economic and financial environment.     

限定刑事责任能力评定量表在暴力案件中的应用

目的研究《限定刑事责任能力评定量表》在暴力案件中的使用情况。方法对103例暴力犯罪案件中的被鉴定人分别使用《限定刑事责任能力评定量表》、《暴力作案刑事责任能力评定量表》进行评定,并同专家结论进行比较:使用BPRS对精神症状评分:对被评定为限定责任能力的案例进行三级划分。结果量表总分的组内相关系数ICC=0.9073:全量表同质信度Cronbachα=0.9572,分半相关系数分别为0.994和0.991,二者相关系数r=0.969。《限定刑事责任能力评定量表》总分和《暴力作案刑事责任能力评定量表》总分相关较高.r=0.946。量表结论与专家结论的一致性高,Kappa=0.95。限定责任能力案件得分与专家分级意见的一致性高:Kappa=0.97。《限定刑事责任能力评定量表》总分和BPRS总分相关性高,r=-0.797。结论《限定刑事责任能力评定量表》在暴力案件的鉴定中具有可用性。     

简论美国次贷危机及其启示

美国次贷危机不但对美国本土经济产生巨大的打击，而且冲击着世界各国的经济。次贷危机对我国出口的影响已经显现。从目前情势看，次贷危机仍在进一步发展、蔓延，它对中国经济和对外贸易的影响还将持续。鉴于对外贸易对中国经济增长的重要性，本文重点分析了次贷危机产生的原因，以及我国从中得到的启示。     

中国电影产业受众反应的定量分析与文化阐释

电影票房和网络评分是衡量电影产业中受众反应的重要指标。经统计学的定量分析表明,2002至2013年每年票房排名前二的国产影片,其影片票房与网络评分存在线性关系。受众是具有差异性的群体,其观影过程是复杂的解码过程,经历着各自情感的共鸣或者间离。电影的受众群体应区分为专业化的观众和大众化的观众,两者有着不同的逻辑、表述不同的话语、对票房与评分的作用也不尽相同。了解受众的心态与行为,才能更好地促进电影产业的发展。     

精神病犯服刑能力评定量表研究

目的制订符合中国法律体系的精神病犯服刑能力评定量表。方法根据鉴定实践,结合中国法律,研究者首先创建了称为“精神病犯服刑能力评定量表”的评定工具,然后再回顾性运用该工具,通过诊断性实验,对该工具的信度、效度及实用性进行了检验。结果该量表同质性信度为0.8779,量表评定与专家评定一致性为0.909,除了阴性似然比为0.0683,其他诊断性指标均大于0.80。结论精神病犯服刑能力评定量表具有较好的实用性。     

移动服务提供商信用评价指标体系构建初探

随着移动商务的迅猛发展,电信市场不断扩张,服务提供商开发的业务种类日益繁多,由此所引发的滥收费用、隐瞒欺诈等信用问题也越发凸显,并逐渐成为制约移动商务发展的瓶颈。本文初步构建了移动服务提供商的信用评价指标体系,并对提高移动服务提供商的信用水平提出了相关建议。     

Why preferences and institutions change: A systematic process analysis of credit rating in Germany

This article argues that a within‐case analysis of the causes and patterns of the institutionalisation of rating in the German financial system offers fresh insights into change in the major socioeconomic institutions of advanced capitalism. Using the method of systematic process analysis, the article explores the expansion of credit rating in the German banking system from three perspectives: historical (power), sociological (diffusion) and behavioural institutionalism (prospect theory). It demonstrates that the proliferation of credit rating resulted from a change of preference on the part of large banks. With Germany as a least likely case for successfully implementing rating, the study's main lesson is that institutional analysis may benefit from incorporating behavioural institutionalism into the analysis of preference change because this cites economic motivations as causes of preference shifts and institutional changes.     

Effect of Choice of Measure on the Size of a Racial Disparity

In criminological studies of racial disparities the effect of race on outcomes is assessed after statistical controls for other variables. There is no universally accepted measure of size of disparity after controls in the most common type of disparity study: the study of binary outcomes. Some such studies use a measure that lends itself to interpretation in terms of the proportional reduction in error (PRE). Most use a non-PRE measure of association. This study investigates the effect of choice of measure on conclusions about the size of a disparity after controls. For illustrative purposes the study analyzes data on the awarding of sentence reductions to drug traffickers. After controls, blacks are found to be substantially less likely than whites to receive a reduction according to a type of non-PRE measure: an odds ratio derived from a logit model. But using the same data and model, PRE measures obtained from an ROC analysis indicate that, after controls, there is hardly any difference between the races in their likelihood of sentence reduction. Results illustrate the study's thesis: that the choice of measure can powerfully affect conclusions. The findings' implications—for policymakers and for researchers who conduct racial disparity studies—are discussed.     

Prototypicality analysis of the Comprehensive Assessment of Psychopathic Personality (CAPP): A cross-cultural perspective

The Comprehensive Assessment of Psychopathic Personality (CAPP) model is a new lexically based concept of psychopathy that has potential clinical utility. The main purpose of this research is to investigate the generalizability of the CAPP conceptual model in South Korea. In the current study, 88 experts and 1727 laypeople in South Korea were asked to evaluate the prototypicality of the symptoms of psychopathy (CAPP items) by using a Korean translation of the CAPP model (K-CAPP). In addition, 11 international prototypicality studies were systematically compared to the ratings by experts in the present study. As a result, it indicated that Korean experts and laypeople, on average, rated K-CAPP symptoms as moderately to highly prototypical of psychopathy, and more prototypical of psychopathy than symptoms theoretically unrelated to psychopathy (foils). Also, prototypicality ratings of K-CAPP symptoms made by those two groups were similar to each other as well as to ratings by experts and laypeople using the CAPP in other 11 countries. In conclusion, these results clearly show that both experts and laypeople in the current study conceptualized PPD in almost the same way as experts and laypeople from previous studies using the CAPP model.     

信用评级法律制度的国际化发展趋势

信用评级的国际化决定了信用评级法律制度的国际化趋势，而信用评级国际化中的信用评级霸权问题、信用评级霸权导致的关欧信用评级监管标准之争则直接推动了信用评级法律制度的国际化进程。金融危机前后许多国际组织和区域组织都先后立法，意图对国际信用评级机构进行规制。在信用评级的国际化和信用评级霸权的争夺中，我国并不能“独善其身”。须正确认识信用评级法律制度的国际化；培育国内信用评级机构和市场；完善国内信用评级法律制度；积极参与国际信用评级法律制度的制定。