我国潜在通货膨胀的原因及防范

我国面临通货膨胀的潜在威胁,通过对引发通货膨胀原因的分析,提出了一系列防范的对策。     

通货膨胀形成过程中的硬核研究

通货膨胀是一国经济增长过程的痼疾,每当通货膨胀发生时,一国政府会采取各种各样的措施加以治理,但往往收效甚微,这就迫使我们更深入地思考其形成原因及相应的治理措施。我们发现,除现代经济学中所论述的通货膨胀的原因之外,还有一个没有被提及的原因,这就是人类的欲望。欲望不但是通货膨胀的原因,而且是重要原因。由于欲望的特性,由此引起的通货膨胀也具有其自身的特点,其治理措施也应有别于其他原因引起的通货膨胀。     

论通货膨胀

随着社会经济的发展，国内国际环境更加复杂多变，通货膨胀现象越来越严重。如何使通货膨胀率控制在可控范围并成为经济发展的润滑剂就显得越发重要。中国作为社会主义大国可以运用经济手段、行政手段、加强法制管理等方法进行综合治理，从而走出世界经济危机的阴影，实现经济的稳步发展，并逐步提高在国际事务中的地位。     

关于目前我国货币政策的若干问题

从政策目标的角度而言 ,我国相对积极的货币政策在防范金融风险 ,提高金融资产质量方面起到了一定作用 ;从货币政策作用的时滞性的角度看 ,我国目前实施的相对积极的货币政策和其他宏观经济政策的效应正在逐渐凸现 ,中国经济已陷入凯恩斯流动性陷阱的认识是极为片面的。为确保我国宏观经济的持续增长 ,3% - 6%的温和的通货膨胀政策 ,应是我国中长期宏观经济操作的主要目标和基本归宿。当前 ,进一步健全货币政策的传导机制已成为我国金融工作的主要任务之一。     

Forging Ahead

正The statistics on national economic development in 2013 released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 20 should strengthen people’s confidence in the continuous improvement of the Chinese economy in 2014.     

Confidence in an election authority and satisfaction with democracy: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment of a failed election in Sweden

Contemporary research on electoral integrity has focused on the functioning, evaluation, and legitimacy of electoral processes in emerging democracies. By contrast, this study investigates whether a failed election in a well-established democracy can affect individuals' evaluations of the electoral management body, the Election Authority, and whether those evaluations affect satisfaction with democracy. Using the case of a Swedish regional election in 2010 that had to be rerun due to procedural mistakes in the vote handling, we found that, in the short term, individuals’ confidence in the Election Authority was reduced after it was announced that the election had to be rerun because of the mistakes. Subsequently, this decreased confidence was strongly associated with less satisfaction with democracy at the regional and national level. As good news for the authority, after a successful rerun election, confidence rebounded to the levels prior to the failed election.     

Voter Ideology, the Economy, and the International Environment in Western Democracies, 1952–1989

Although it is commonly assumed that voters shift on an ideological spectrum over time, there has been relatively little scientific inquiry into the reasons for shifts in voter ideology. In this article, we attempt to explain why voter ideological shifts occur utilizing an interval measure of voter ideology recently developed by Kim and Fording. A pooled time-series analysis of 13 Western democracies for the period of 1952–1989 identifies several internal and external factors causing shifts in voter ideology. With respect to domestic influences, the state of the country's national economy, primarily inflation, seems to drive movement in voter ideology in a most significant way, but we find that the direction of this relationship is dependent on the ideological disposition of the incumbent government. With respect to international influences, we find significant ideological diffusion across neighboring countries of Western democracies. The effects of ideological diffusion are strongest within countries that are small relative to their neighbors. We also find that ideology is influenced by the international political environment, especially the level of East-West tension during the Cold War.     

我国货币供应量与通货膨胀关系实证研究

近期物价上涨已成为人们普遍关心的热点问题,通货膨胀压力在进一步加大。本文选用了2007年-2010年的月度数据,对我国货币供应量M0、M1、M2与通货膨胀的关系进行研究,验证近期货币供应量与通货膨胀之间的具体关系。综合运用协整分析、因果检验以及误差修正模型来揭示我国货币供应量与通货膨胀的长期均衡及短期波动关系,结果显示,货币供应量M1、M2变化是通货膨胀率变化的重要原因。通过调整M1、M2,能够有效控制物价水平的上涨。     

“十二五”中国通胀治理的战略运筹

导致＂十二五＂开局之年中国通胀主要有四大因素：货币超发、预期催化、美元输入、成本推动。为科学治理此轮通胀,必须具有全局视野和长远眼光,利用经济、政治、法律等综合手段,尤其要在金融、财税、行政方面做出战略规划,控制好通胀的同时控制好通胀预期,把通胀作为经济发展的一种工具,以通胀对冲稀释人民币升值压力。     

Global diffusion,policy flexibility,and inflation targeting

ABSTRACT

A diverse group of over 30 countries located all over the world—such as the UK, Colombia, and Ghana—introduced inflation targeting, which is a monetary policy that seeks to control inflation through a pre-announced target. Fully institutionalized democracies adopted the policy first because the core features of inflation targeting are consistent with the principles of a liberal democracy. But why was inflation targeting also introduced by less-democratic countries? This article develops the argument that decision makers of less-democratic countries became more likely to adopt inflation targeting when they observed that nearby countries increased the flexibility of the policy. The statistical analysis of data from 76 countries between 1989 and 2013 supports this hypothesis. The finding that the change of a policy toward a more flexible framework drives its global spread addresses a blind spot in the more recent policy diffusion literature.