苏维埃制度崩溃原因的初步分析

苏联解体的轻率和突然令人震惊,但官方的苏联历史是神化的.并非国有制过度这种所谓的恶疾导致了苏维埃体制的崩溃.苏联经济落后及其被军备竞赛所耗尽只是意识形态的神话.石油价格波动同样未在苏联解体过程中发挥重要作用.后苏联时期俄罗斯相当长时期内的危机,不是从苏联延续下来,而是在拆解苏联时形成的.只有极少数公民有意识地否定苏维埃制度的主要基础.厘清苏联解体的原因,需要我们应打破教条和陈词滥调以及意识形态语言的藩篱.应区分苏维埃构想和其在实践中的具体表现--苏维埃制度.苏维埃构想并没有消灭自己,也没有退化或自我毁灭,而只是在成长中出现了疾病,其一系列制度无法适应苏联社会和苏联人发展的新形势.苏联体系的主要特点,或者说斯大林主义,是在 1905-1917年革命、内战、20 世纪 20 年代的新经济政策、30 年代的集体化和工业化、卫国战争期间形成的.当时的环境导致苏共在具体的制度设计上选择的范围很小,只能基于现实的威胁、资源潜力和历史上造就的具有惯性的文化环境.二战结束后,苏联的领导层未能妥善解决摆脱"斯大林主义",摆脱动员发展状态这样的复杂问题,进而导致了一系列的政治危机并由于冷战而深化其严重性.苏联既是被冷战的对手所扼杀,更死于自己的双手.苏联合法性的危机酝酿了 30年才成熟.苏维埃制度早期的合法性源自对群众对社会苦难的记忆.伴随着城市化的发展,至 20世纪 60-70年代,苏联社会从根本上发生了改变.但城市化给对苏维埃的不满制造了客观的前提条件.一种隐性的危险日益增大,即以前的苏维埃制度的思想基础迅速急剧地衰弱乃至消失.苏联短期内有两代感觉自己毫无生活保障的年轻人被改革、公开性、集会以及文化多元论弄得神魂颠倒.精英阶层的反苏部分的行动利用了这种世界观危机并使之加剧.而新一代领导人既无法迅速揭示也无法预防社会上已经出现的矛盾,而且无法找到有效的方法解决成熟的问题.党的高层与苏联社会现实的脱离令人震惊,他们自以为掌控着国内进程,但实际上底层的干部掌握着形势.这使得戈尔巴乔夫日益激进的改革导致雪崩式的后果.从这一意义上讲,苏联的解体是文明和世界观危机的结果.其实质在于,苏联社会与国家没能胜任在代际更替的过程中更新社会制度合法性手段的任务;无法保障文化历史类型嬗变的延续性,这种递嬗发生在现代化和城市化过程中并和整个社会走出20世纪20至50年代的动员型发展状态的危机相吻合.     

苏联为什么会终结?

1991年 3月17日全苏公投仍有高达 76%民众支持保留共同国家.但不到 9 个月之后,别洛韦日森林声明即宣布苏联终止存在.假如在公投举行以后,不是采取建立主权国家联盟的方针,而是循序渐进地建立一个"软"联邦,一开始仅限于建议签订建立共同经济空间的协议,分离主义者的目的就不会达到."8·19"事件更多是起了雷管的作用.先前的发展方式挖了苏联的墙角.导致苏联垮台的深层次经济原因体现在行政管理体系的结构性危机上.而由国家结构中长期缺乏联邦制引发的中央与各加盟共和国关系的危机,是苏联解体的另一个最重要的原因.保留苏共作为确保苏联统一的机制,其必要条件是党本身的民主化.制约苏共民主化的主要力量是党的机关,它实际上处于选举出来的党的机构之上.在帮助苏联走出经济困境方面,西方甚至"连手指头都没有动一下".而困难至极的经济形势在很大程度上注定了苏联的解体.     

略评苏联解体原因研究中的几种观点

雄踞世界70余年的苏联于20世纪末剧变、解体,成为中国学术界对苏-俄研究的一个新热点。现时我国学术界对苏联解体原因的研究没有突破研究方法、思路上的传统定式,因此用新理念、新方法探讨苏联剧变的研究成果十分少见,致使现今苏联解体原因研究相对滞后。     

A Critical Point For Europe

正China tries to give a hand as the euro zone struggles on the verge of collapse Greece,the first European country to fall into debt trouble,is faced with a painful decision on whether to stay in the euro zone.At present,the country is suffering the heavy blow of a triple crisis- sovereign debt,social problems and political uncertainty.There are no regulations on how a member     

多元社会思潮与意识形态危机——苏联政治悲剧的历史反思

自20世纪80年代开始,苏共领导人逐步背叛马克思列宁主义,错误抛出自由化改革,引发非马克思主义社会思潮泛滥,导致意识形态全线崩溃。以"公开性、多元论"为特征的民主社会主义思潮动摇了马列主义理论基石,信奉"市场万能"的新自由主义思潮摧毁社会主义经济基础,"为历史翻案"的历史虚无主义思潮扭曲苏联共产党形象,鼓吹"大俄罗斯"的民族沙文主义思潮引发苏联国家认同危机。多元社会思潮的催化剂效应,导致社会主义制度的政治合法性全线崩溃,最终瓦解了苏共,毁灭了苏联。苏共在处理多元社会思潮问题上的教训十分深刻,对我党的意识形态建设具有重要的警示与启发意义。     

The Paradoxes of the Revolutions of 1989 in Central Europe

Abstract

The self-limiting revolutions of 1989 in Central Europe offer an alternative paradigm of revolutionary change that is reminiscent more of the American struggle for independence in 1776 than the Jacobin tendencies that grew out of the French Revolution of 1789. In order to understand the contradictory impulses of the revolutions of 1989—the desire for a radical renewal and the concern for preservation—this article takes as its point of departure the political thought of Hannah Arendt and Edmund Burke.     

Hungary's “anti-capitalist” far-right: Jobbik and the Hungarian Guard

The study analyzed whether the dissolution of Yugoslavia and the establishment of succeeding mono-national states was the expression of “longing” of mass proportions on the part of the nationalities within respective federal units. Using the data from two pan-Yugoslav surveys from the period preceding the dissolution, results were obtained that indicated a very limited support for this hypothesis. More specifically, results indicated that support for emancipation was rather weak, among youth in 1986 and even among the adult population in 1990, although some significant mean differences between the federal units and between major nationalities within them were evident. Specifically, opinions favoring independence were detected among Kosovo Albanians and later among Slovenians in Slovenia. In addition, findings also indicated that those with higher socioeconomic status were not more inclined toward independence. Results thus pointed more towards the idea that the dissolution was indeed instigated by a small group of “political entrepreneurs” not captured by the survey data.     

From Al-Itihaad to Al-Shabaab: how the Ethiopian intervention and the ‘War on Terror’ exacerbated the conflict in Somalia

Abstract

External intervention has frustrated and continues to frustrate peace and stability in the Horn of Africa and Somalia, adding various adverse layers to an already complicated and complex conflict. The level of forceful military engagement intended for regional domination has profoundly affected negatively the efforts of peacebuilding and statebuilding in Somalia. This article examines how the earlier Ethiopian policies towards Somalia has reshaped the (post)-Cold War politics of the Horn. In doing so, it traces the roots of the Ethiopian intervention in Somalia vis-à-vis new non-state armed groups to chart the changing political dynamics of the conflict in Somalia. By using historical approach, the article argues that Ethiopia’s agenda is central to understanding why the ‘War on Terror’ has strengthened and subsequently midwifed armed militant movements (e.g. new insurgency groups) in Somalia, starting from Al-Itihaad to today’s Al-Shabaab. In focusing upon various regional actors and groups, the article moves from the emphasis of internal systems to external power structures, considering the wider historical and political factors in the region that must be closely examined if the regional and local conflicts are to be deeply understood. While it is a context-specific study, the article aims to contribute fresh perspectives and insights to ongoing discussions on the consequences of the Ethiopian intervention in Somalia.     

Application of 3D Laser Scanner to Forensic Engineering

In the case of building collapses and overturned structures, a three‐dimensional (3D) collapse or overturn model is required to reconstruct the accident. As construction sites become increasingly complex and large, 3D laser scanning is sometimes the best tool to accurately document and store the site conditions. This case report presents one case of a structure collapse and one case of an overturned crane reconstructed by a 3D laser scanner. In the case of structural collapse of a prefabricated shoring system, a 3D model reconstructed all the members successfully, a task that is nearly impossible using a scale such as a tape measure. The reconstructed prefabricated shoring system was verified through a structural analysis through comparison with the construction drawings to investigate faults in construction. In the case of the overturned crane, the jib angle and other major dimensions were successfully acquired through 3D laser scanning and used to estimate the working radius. As a result, the propriety of the working radius with the given lifting load was successfully determined.     

制约与解释--生活场景对法律生命的考量

人与社会存在的固有事实与本来逻辑显示,内含秩序与正义两大终极价值的法律与人的生活场景紧密结合在一起.法律的存在也是一个过程,具有断裂的可能性.人的生活场景是由自然性的物质世界、社会性的物质世界、文化世界、关系世界构成的统一体,决定着法律的生成、运作与进化;法律也不断地解释着人的生活场景,法律的生命在解释的过程中体现出来.在此过程中,法律必须具有深厚的亲和力.