基于最优货币区理论的人民币与新台币汇率波动的影响因素研究

为了检验近年来影响人民币兑新台币汇率的宏观经济因素,以最优货币区理论作为基础,应用OCA指数法,构建一个影响两币汇率波动的宏观经济指标体系,利用实际经济数据分析影响两币汇率波动的主要因素.研究发现:一些宏观经济指标加大了两币汇率的波动幅度,如两地的利率水平差异;另一些宏观经济指标则有效地抑制了两币汇率波动,如两地出口结构的多样化、贸易联系及资本和金融开放度等.因此,为了维持两币汇率稳定,政府可以在相关方面采取政策措施.     

Human eye colour and HERC2, OCA2 and MATP

Prediction of human eye colour by forensic genetic methods is of great value in certain crime investigations. Strong associations between blue/brown eye colour and the SNP loci rs1129038 and rs12913832 in the HERC2 gene were recently described. Weaker associations between eye colour and other genetic markers also exist. In 395 randomly selected Danes, we investigated the predictive values of various combinations of SNP alleles in the HERC2, OCA2 and MATP (SLC45A2) genes and compared the results to the eye colours as they were described by the individuals themselves. The highest predictive value of typing either the HERC2 SNPs rs1129038 and/or rs12913832 that are in strong linkage disequilibrium was observed when eye colour was divided into two groups, (1) blue, grey and green (light) and (2) brown and hazel (dark). Sequence variations in rs11636232 and rs7170852 in HERC2, rs1800407 in OCA2 and rs16891982 in MATP showed additional association with eye colours in addition to the effect of HERC2 rs1129038. Diplotype analysis of three sequence variations in HERC2 and one sequence variation in OCA2 showed the best discrimination between light and dark eye colours with a likelihood ratio of 29.3.     

Analysis of the Optimum Currency Area for ASEAN and ASEAN＋3

This paper performs an analysis of the optimum currency area （OCA） for ASEAN （Association of Southeast Asian Nations） and ASEAN＋3 for the period of 2003-2012. The applied method is based on the model developed by Bayoumi and Eichengreen for the European countries. Regarding the two groups of study, the document contents the integration roots as well as some theories and empirical data about the currency areas. The obtained results based on the OCA indexes showed that nearly half of the country members have moved symmetrically, although the effect of the four independent variables was found different in each case. In conclusion, the monetary convergence is significantly influenced by the output disturbances and the trade linkages in both regions; while the size of the economy only becomes significant in ASEAN＋3 and the synchronic advantage is not contributing and even insignificant for ASEAN＋3.     

欧元模式与东亚货币合作模式的比较分析

作为两种典型的国际货币合作模式,欧元模式和东亚货币合作模式适应了不同区域的历史文化特点和政治制度与经济发展的需要,在国际区域货币合作领域具有重要的代表意义。在国际区域货币合作的形成动因、路径选择、"锚货币"确立及最优货币区标准的满足程度等方面,二者之间既有一定共性又有诸多区别,通过对比,可以更清晰地看出东亚货币合作的优长和不足之处、进程缓慢的主要原因以及加快前行的方向所在。