后"伊斯兰国"时期恐怖意识形态蔓延:一个新的讨论框架

当前，国际联军打击“伊斯兰国”战事已进入尾声，然而，地面战场的失败并不意味着“伊斯兰国”思想的消亡。从萨拉菲-吉哈德主义极端意识形态发展脉络框架下考察，“伊斯兰国”在这一思想脉络中的独特历史地位塑造了它当前与未来的思想发展方式。国际社会需要认识到，当前反恐战争所面对的“战败者”可能并不认为自己已经失败，其意识形态过去近半个世纪危机式发展赋予了“伊斯兰国”面对失败的独特抵抗能力。“基地”组织在2011年被击溃后的历史也证明，在可预见的未来，“伊斯兰国”将很有可能继续在扩大其基本怀旧式叙事、赋予战败以合法性的同时，还将通过“全球恐怖商标”下的“特许经营”模式，将一种“暴力即思想”的恐怖思想内核进一步扩散并升级。国际社会打击“伊斯兰国”战争，可能刚刚到一个需要进行“中期评估”的时候，这场战争远未结束。     

The Role of the Chemical Weapons Convention in Countering Chemical Terrorism

A series of incidents over the past two decades has indicated that some terrorist groups are interested in acquiring and using improvised chemical devices (ICDs). Although the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) is a disarmament treaty that is legally binding only on sovereign states that join it voluntarily, the Convention fortuitously includes several provisions that can help its members to prevent chemical terrorism or to manage the consequences of an attack. This article examines the articles of the CWC that are relevant to counterterrorism and discusses how their implementation could be improved at the national and international levels. The article also addresses the role that the CWC secretariat, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) in The Hague, currently plays in preventing and responding to incidents of chemical terrorism, and the political factors that constrain its activities in the counterterrorism field.     

Australia and the Threat of Terrorism in the Decade after 9/11

In February 2010, the Australian government released its second Counter-Terrorism White Paper, claiming that terrorism continues to pose a serious security challenge to Australia. The article critically re-examines the terrorist threat to Australia and explores the threat posed by the traditional Al-Qaeda leadership, by regional organisations like Jemaah Islamiyah and by so-called ‘home-grown’ terrorists. Arguing that it is imperative to differentiate clearly between the threat to Australia and Australian interests abroad, the article identifies the sources of threat in the Australian context. It concludes that neither Al-Qaeda nor Jemaah Islamiyah nor home-grown terrorism poses any significant objective threat to Australia. At the same time it is acknowledged that the subjective perception of the terrorist necessitates the government to develop an effective counter-terrorism strategy. However, given that the terrorism threat is objectively low, policy measures addressing the threat ought to be carefully designed to meet the requirements of proportionality and (potential) effectiveness.     

The Isolated Islamists: The Case of the Allied Democratic Forces in the Ugandan-Congolese Borderland

This study investigates the absence of substantive linkages between locally based Salafi Jihadist movements and their more transnational counterparts such as Al-Qaeda or ISIS. While studies have addressed the heterogeneity in Jihadi alliances, the question of why inter-Jihadi ties are completely absent or tenuous at times is under-theorized in the literature. Given ISIS’s recent inexorable advance through the Middle East and North Africa and its ever-growing ties with local Jihadists, it is timely to investigate under what conditions locally based militant Islamists are less likely to forge ties with global Jihadists. Using the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF)—a militant Islamist group in the Ugandan-Congolese borderland—as an illustrative case study, the research sheds light on conditions under which inter-Jihadi ties are less likely. These include the extent of ideological divergence between local and global Jihadists, the degree of relevance to the local community, and the fear of attracting new enemies in the form of more stringent counter-terrorism operations.     

The Institutionalization of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQMI)

A number of observers have expressed serious concerns that Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQMI), as it expands in the Sahel, may become strong enough to be a threat to Europe and carry on the global mission of Al-Qaeda as conceived by bin Laden. This fear seems unwarranted. Using institutional analysis to study the AQMI behavioral fluctuations over the last decade, this article argues that AQMI's need to find a compromise between external and internal legitimacy has constrained its behavior. The affiliation of the Algerian terrorists with Al-Qaeda was in many ways a marriage of convenience that created a number of internal contradictions. At the cognitive level, implicit Algerian nationalism to rid the country of its corrupt regime remains at odds with pan-Islamic views shared by Al-Qaeda's leadership. At the normative level, indiscriminate suicide bombing supported by Al-Qaeda is abhorrent to many Algerian terrorists, who construe their mandate in the spirit of the Algerian war of independence where it is their duty to protect civilians. These and other contradictions prevent AQMI from developing a coherent political agenda and thus it is less likely to engage in a long-term conflict against European societies.     

Al-Qaeda’s Propaganda Decoded: A Psycholinguistic System for Detecting Variations in Terrorism Ideology

We describe a novel hybrid method of content analysis that combines the speed of computerized text analysis with the contextual sensitivity of human raters, and apply it to speeches that were given by major leaders of Al-Qaeda (AQ)—both in its “core” Afghanistan/Pakistan region and its affiliate group in Iraq. The proposed “Ideology Extraction using Linguistic Extremization” (IELEX) categorization method has acceptable levels of inter-rater and test-retest reliabilities. The method uncovered subtle (and potentially non-conscious) differences in the emphases that Usama Bin Laden and Ayman Al-Zawahiri put on the various components of their ideological justification for terrorism. We show how these differences were independently recognized as the crux of the rift in AQ, based on documents that were confiscated in Abbottabad following Usama Bin Laden’s assassination. Additionally, several of the ideological discrepancies that we detected between AQ “core” and its Iraqi affiliate correspond to schisms that presumably led to the splintering of AQ Iraq and the rise of ISIS. We discuss IELEX’s capability to quantify a variety of grievance-based terrorist ideologies, along with its use towards more focused and efficient counter-terrorism and counter-messaging policies.     

A shifting enemy: analysing the BBC’s representations of “al-Qaeda” in the aftermath of the September 11th 2001 attacks

This article seeks to explore how the BBC made sense of the al-Qaeda phenomenon in its flagship “News at Ten” bulletin during the aftermath of the September 11^th 2001 attacks. Using Critical Multimodal Discourse Analysis, it shows how the BBC’s representations function as a dynamic and continually shifting site upon which a range of fears, identities, discourses and forms of knowledge and power struggle and contend, and through which a number of different “al-Qaedas” manifest themselves. In particular, three shifting modes of visual and verbal representation are identified within the BBC’s coverage which each correspond to a separate understanding of al-Qaeda: the “Islamic” mode, the “Personalised” mode and the “Elusive” mode. These representations both draw upon and challenge the dominant discourses surrounding Islam, non-state terrorism and the identities of terrorist suspects, providing audiences with a variety of often conflicting ways of seeing and speaking about this entity. As such, the article provides insight into the complex nature of the BBC’s representations of al-Qaeda during its coverage of the September 11^th 2001 attacks, and shows how such complexity serves, albeit inadvertently, to legitimise the far-reaching counterterrorism policies that were enacted in the aftermath of these attacks.