Managing Power Transitions: Towards a 21st Century Concert of Powers

Power shifts and especially power transitions in the international system are often associated with (military) confl ict. Power Transition Theory (PTT) does offer an analysis of this phenomenon but no remedy. We suggest easing the tensions related to ongoing worldwide power shifts by introducing a new informal multilateral security governance institution, based on the idea of a concert of powers. The historical European Concert of the 19th century prevented the outbreak of great power wars for more than a generation by providing a cooperation framework, based on shared norms and common procedures. In this article we explore the possibility of utilizing a modernized concert of powers as a framework for managing the coming power shifts. In order to do so, we introduce two new elements in Power Transition Theory: (1) the importance of the (dis) satisfaction of the declining hegemon with the anticipated future order, and (2) a broader multilateral framework of major powers that overcomes the Power Transition Theory’s traditional bilateral “duel” situation. On this basis, institutionalized power transition management becomes possible. We then work out the norms, strengths and weaknesses of the historical concert and update it with a few new features that would be necessary for it to be successful in the 21st century.     

1945年美英贸易谈判和GATT的起源

1945年美英围绕战后国际贸易体制问题展开了一场外交攻防战,出于世界领导权、商业利益及对苏战略的需要,美国放弃了多边自由贸易纲领,转而采取多边谈判程序的安排,形成了美国构筑战后国际贸易体制的政策目标和方法,为多边贸易谈判体制———GATT的产生铺平了道路。     

Transatlantic Institutions: Can Partnership be Engineered?

The transatlantic alliance is widely viewed as being in a state of decline. Conflict over the war in Iraq highlighted a growing divergence between the Bush administration and European Union governments in their attitudes towards multilateralism. The rift severely tested institutions created to manage bilateral EU–US relations in the aftermath of the cold war. This article examines how well this institutional architecture has held up. It scrutinises the limitations of networked governance in transatlantic relations and acknowledges the quandary of trying to manufacture partnership using imperfect institutions. The Brussels–Washington channel is only one among many through which transatlantic relations flow, but we argue that it continues to gain in importance. Despite the limits of institutional engineering, we conclude that the US and the EU remain each other's most important ally.     

When public principals give up control over private agents: The new independence of ICANN in internet governance

In 2016, the United States (US) government relinquished its long‐standing delegation contract with the Internet Corporation for Assignment of Names and Numbers (ICANN), a private organization that governs the technical infrastructure of the internet. This presents a puzzle as the US not only gave up a power resource, but also relinquished the possibility, as a public principal, to hold the private agent ICANN accountable. I argue that public principals have incentives to leave control in the hands of private stakeholders when a delegation contract is exposed to external pressure by powerful outside states and the probability of extensive policy changes by the privatized agent is limited. The analysis shows that the unilateral US control over ICANN was strongly challenged by other states and private actors. Instead of granting a greater role to rising powers in internet governance, the US gave up its unilateral influence after internal reforms limited the risk that an independent ICANN could deviate too far from former policies.     

新时代中国外交理论建设与外交实践笔谈

从方法论、理论意义和制度创新三个角度把握新时代中国外交理论的丰富内涵和发展方向,是深化新时代中国外交战略和外交理论研究的重要保证。人类命运共同体思想不仅丰富了中国的国际关系理论,也有力推动着理论范式的创新。这种创新表现为中国国际关系理念与价值创新、思维创新、模式创新和话语创新。我们需要深刻辨识中国全球伙伴关系战略对开创国际关系新模式的理论意义和高质量共建"一带一路"对世界共同现代化的制度创新价值。21世纪的国际竞争具有新的特点,更多体现为纵向竞争、间接竞争、错位竞争。由于美国视中国为长期性的竞争对手,这使得国际体系中的大国战略竞争呈现长期化态势。我们应从更广阔的战略图谱中定位竞争,从管控竞争、化解竞争的角度去应对竞争,其中包括推动实现"真正的多边主义"。     

Mega-Regional Trade Deals in the Asia-Pacific: Choosing Between the TPP and RCEP?

The emergence of “mega-regional” trade agreements has recently become the most significant trade policy issue in the Asia-Pacific. Since 2010, governments in the region have launched negotiations for two new trade agreements: the United States-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the ASEAN-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Differentiated by their membership, scope and level of ambition, the TPP and RCEP embody competing visions for how the Asia-Pacific trade system should evolve, and regional governments must now make choices over which initiative better serves their economic and political interests. This article explores the trade policy choice posed by these mega-regional trade negotiations, reviewing the evolution of the Asia-Pacific trade system, the recent emergence of the TPP and RCEP, and the competitive dynamics inherent in the development of the two proposals. It argues that four key considerations (trade policy ambition, the role of ASEAN, US-China geopolitical rivalry and defensive concerns) will be of key importance in informing regional governments’ decisions as the TPP and RCEP move towards completion in 2015.     

South Africa's Iran policy: ‘Poster child’ meets renegade

Compliance with universal norms is one of the most important aspects of the global order. Iran, through the conduct of its nuclear programme, is seen as a challenger of the global non-proliferation norms, which enjoy almost universal recognition. South Africa's policy on Iran has been extremely puzzling — a rising power in the international system, subscribing to a global norm of nuclear non-proliferation, but challenging the interpretation and application of that norm. This contribution asks why this is the case, and demonstrates that South Africa's policy towards the Iranian nuclear programme has been clearly marked by a strongly held belief regarding the value of negotiations, a distrust of the global North, and a preference for a wide multilateral approach in institutions.     

Funding Global Public Goods: The Dark Side of Multilateralism

The funding of global public goods, such as climate mitigation, presents a complex strategic problem. Potential recipients demand side payments for implementing projects that furnish global public goods, and donors can cooperate to provide the funding. We offer a game‐theoretic analysis of this problem. In our model, a recipient demands project funding. Donors can form a multilateral program to jointly fund the project. If no program is formed, bilateral funding remains a possibility. We find that donors rely on multilateralism if their preferences are relatively symmetric and domestic political constraints on funding are lax. In this case, the recipient secures large rents from project implementation. Thus, even donors with strong interests in global public good provision have incentives to oppose institutional arrangements that promote multilateral funding. These incentives have played an important role in multilateral negotiations on climate finance, especially in Cancun (2010) and Durban (2011).     

The wto in Bali: what mc9 means for the Doha Development Agenda and why it matters

The conclusion of the World Trade Organization’s (wto) ninth ministerial meeting – held in Bali 3–7 December 2013 – is at one and the same time momentous, marginal and business-as-usual. It is momentous because it marks the first multilateral agreement reached in the wto since the organisation began operations on 1 January 1995; it is marginal because the deal reached will have only a limited impact on the global trading system; and it is business as usual because the Bali package will be of disproportionally greater value to the industrial states than to their developing and least developed counterparts. We examine what happened in Bali, covering the principal issues at stake and the content of the outcome, what this means for the wto and for the Doha Development Agenda (dda), and why it all matters. We argue that, while the Bali ministerial is significant and the agreements reached important, the conclusion of the meeting and the package agreed represent only a limited movement forward in addressing the fundamental problems and inequities of the wto system.     

中国与国际秩序笔谈:观念与战略

国际秩序是世界政治中最具全局性、长期性和战略性的重大问题。国际秩序的走向本质上是“世界向何处去”的问题。习近平主席指出:“当今世界处于百年未有之大变局”“人类又一次站在了十字路口。合作还是对抗?开放还是封闭?互利共赢还是零和博弈?如何回答这些问题,关乎各国利益,关乎人类前途和命运。”对此时代之问,追求民族复兴并已深度融入世界的中国,理应做出自己的回答。正值新冠肺炎疫情肆虐、大国竞争加剧、国际秩序“分”“合”未定之际,南京大学亚太发展研究中心会同《国际问题研究》《外交评论》和《国际展望》三本杂志,以“中国与国际秩序”为主题,邀请近二十位学者分别从历史与理论、观念与战略、议题与实践等不同路径和维度尝试进行跨学科、全方位讨论,旨在聚焦中国在国际秩序进程中的地位与作用,思考中国与世界之关系,鉴往知今、展望未来。