Reordering the French election calendar: Forecasting the consequences for 2002

Abstract. French politicians sometimes change election rules for political advantage. In the Spring of 2001, the ruling Socialists pushed through the inversion of the 2002 election calendar despite stiff opposition. What were the consequences of scheduling the presidential election before the legislature elections? Employing new techniques for French election forecasting, we show that the inversion brought great vote gains to the Socialist-led coalition in both the legislative and presidential arenas. One advantage of this forecasting methodology is that it allows counterfactual comparisons in advance of the actual election contest. Comparing the scenarios 'inversion' versus 'no inversion', the Socialist leadership appeared highly strategic and successful.