东亚经济一体化和TPP——中日之间的博弈

近年来,东亚地区经济发展和经济合作关系十分紧密,东亚经济一体化有了一个初步的尝试.然而,长期以来,由于各种经济因素和非经济因素的影响,这一过程并不顺利.特别是近期热烈讨论的所谓TPP问题,中日就存在博弈关系,从而影响东亚经济一体化进程.通过一个简单的博弈论模型的分析,可以得出的基本结论是:中日两国要么都加入TPP,要么都不加入,只有一方加入时对另一方不利.因此,中国应该观望东亚经贸关系,伺机而动,同时努力提高自身的竞争力.

The Economic Integration in East Asia and TPP:A Game between China and Japan

In recent years,the relationship of regional economic development and economic cooperation is very close in East Asia and the integration in the region has made the first attempt.However,the process of integration doesn’t go on well because of different kinds of non-economic and economic factors.Especially in terms of TPP problem which has been heatedly discussed recently,the game relationship between China and Japan will have impacts on the economic integration process of East Asia.We analyze whether China and Japan should entry TPP by making an easy game model.The basic conclusion is that if China and Japan both enter TPP,it will be mutual beneficial;if only one enters but the other does not,it will be unbeneficial for the latter.Therefore,China should wait and see,and take actions when the moment is appropriate.Meanwhile,China should also try to be more competitive.