我国货币供应量与通货膨胀关系实证研究

近期物价上涨已成为人们普遍关心的热点问题,通货膨胀压力在进一步加大。本文选用了2007年-2010年的月度数据,对我国货币供应量M0、M1、M2与通货膨胀的关系进行研究,验证近期货币供应量与通货膨胀之间的具体关系。综合运用协整分析、因果检验以及误差修正模型来揭示我国货币供应量与通货膨胀的长期均衡及短期波动关系,结果显示,货币供应量M1、M2变化是通货膨胀率变化的重要原因。通过调整M1、M2,能够有效控制物价水平的上涨。

The Empirical Research on the Relationship between Money Supplement and Inflation of China

The recent price rising has become a hot concern to the people.Inflation pressure is increasing little by little.This paper selects the 2007-2010 monthly data about the money supply of M0,M1 and M2 to analyze the recent specific relationship between money supplement and inflation and use the methods of cointegration analysis,causality test and error correction model to reveal the money supply and inflation in the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation relationship.The results showed that the change of M1,M2 is the important reasons for inflation rate changes.So adjusting the M1 and M2 can effectively controls the price level to rise.