制度距离、文化差异与中美贸易摩擦中的权力因素——基于1980~2018年美国对外贸易争端数据的定量研究

中美贸易摩擦是体系压力和美国国内因素共同作用的结果。基于1980~2018年美国对外贸易争端数据的定量研究,文章采用面板负二项模型对中美两国间的制度距离、文化差异和相对实力差距的缩小等结构性变量,以及美国国内政治等单元层次的中介变量、贸易和投资等渠道变量,对中美贸易摩擦的影响进行了实证考察。研究认为,中美间军事、经济和科技实力差距的缩小即相对实力分布的变化会显著强化美国作为守成大国对中国作为崛起大国发起贸易摩擦的可能性;中美两国间的政治、经济制度距离和文化差异或价值观的不同也会显著影响中美两国间发生贸易摩擦的可能性,同时,与美国政治关系良好、在制度和文化上与其接近的国家并不必然意味着与美国贸易摩擦的减少;美国国内不同政治行为体、社会行为体的利益诉求、政策偏好,与贸易的交互效应一起,会进一步增加中美两国因实力差距的缩小、制度和文化(观念)差异等体系因素或结构性变量所引发的贸易摩擦发生的概率;经济因素依然是决定中美贸易摩擦的基础性因素,中美贸易失衡、中国对美直接投资的迅速增加以及中国对美国市场渗透率的提升、美国国内经济绩效的波动、美国国内收入不平等程度的加剧,与贸易的收入分配效应一起,也会显著提升两国间发生贸易摩擦的可能性。

Institutional Distance,Cultural Differences and the Role of Power in China-US Trade Frictions:Quantitative Research based on US Disputes from 1980-2018

China-US trade frictions are a combined result of systemic pressures and American domestic politics.Based on a quantitative study of data on American trade frictions from 1980 to 2018,this article applies a panel negative binomial(NB)regression model to understand how structural factors such as institutional distance between China and the US,cultural differences,and the reduced gap in relative power,as well as intermediary variables such as individual aspects of American domestic politics,and trade and investment influence China-US trade frictions.The study’s findings are as follows:(1)Reduction in the gap between China and the US with respect to military,economic or technological power,or changes in relative power distribution between the two countries clearly increases the likelihood that the US as the established power will initiate a trade war with China as the rising power.(2)The extent of distance between Chinese and US political and economic institutions as well as cultural or ideological differences also increase the likelihood of trade frictions between the two countries;however,good political relations with the US,or close proximity between the institutions or cultures of the two countries does not imply a reduction of trade frictions.(3)The interests and political preferences of various domestic political and social actors in the United States interact with trade dynamics,and condition the probability of trade frictions erupting because of a reduction in the relative power gap,institutional or cultural(ideological)differences or other structural variables.Lastly,economic factors are fundamental for determining whether there will be trade frictions between China and the US.China-US trade imbalance,a rapid increase in Chinese foreign direct investment in the US,increased Chinese penetration of the US market,fluctuations in US domestic economic performance,aggravation of US domestic income inequality,and the income distribution from trade will all interact with one another,all having implications for trade frictions.